ALERT: Hurricane Isidore forecasted to have at least 150 MPH winds within 72 hours

[newsperson999]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2002

Air Force recon data indicate major Hurricane Isidore has continued to rapidly strengthen and the central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A pressure of 946 mb generally corresponds to a maximum wind of about 117 kt. However...the eye is open to the west and there may be a lag in the wind field. Also...dropsonde data indicated about 105 kt surface winds...but winds just a few hundred above the surface have been as high as 130 kt. The three satellite agencies reported a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of t6.0...or 115 kt...while the 3-hour objective Dvorak T-number was also t6.0. Based on this information...the initial intensity was increased to 110 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/3. Recon fix positons since about 12z indicate Isidore has actually remained nearly stationary the past 6 hours...but right over some of the hottest water in the Atlantic Basin. Steering currents remain weak and are forecast by all of the global to remain weak or even get weaker. Isidore remains caught between a mid- to upper-level low east of Florida and one to the west over the Bay of Campeche. A weak and narrow low- to mid-level ridge extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Florida westward to Texas. Given the relative weakness of this ridge...only 5880 meters at 500 mb...it would not take much of a shortwave trough to erode it and allow Isidore to drift slowly poleward. All of the NHC model guidance...except LBAR...keeps Isidore moving on a slow west or west-southwest track through the forecast period. The AVN and GFDL are very similar in hooking Isidore to the southwest around the western Yucatan Peninsula in 36 to 48 hours. This may be some artifact of terrain interaction which I have ignored for this advisory package since all of the global models show no significant ridging north of isiodre to push the system to southwest. The forecast calls for a slow...less than 6 kt...motion throughout the forecast period with a slight west-northwestward motion after 48 hours as a strong shortwave trough drops down the west side of the broad longwave trough...which is expected to erode the weak ridge over Texas and the northwest Gulf of Mexico and allow Isidore to gain some latitude. However... the slower Isidore moves during the next 36 to 48 hours will determine just how far north and the cyclone will move in the longer time periods beyond 72 hours. The good news is that it appears that Isidore is not going to go anywhere fast. The bad news is that it will remain over very hot water.

The central pressure has dropped 21 mb in the past 13 hours. A typical rapid intensification period. This trend would normally continue for another 12 hours or so...but radar and recon data indicate that the eye is open to the west and that an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. As such...the official intensity forecast is held below the ships intensity model which brings Isidore to 135 kt in 36 hours and 140 kt in 60 hours. This type of intensification is certainly possible given the low shear...less than 6 kt...and high SSTs...about 30c/86f. However...predicting internal convective changes is nealry impossible so there could be flucuations by as much 10 kt either way from the offical intensity forecast. Some coastal upwelling may weaken the hurricane slightly as it moves west of 88w longitude...but then some restrengtnening is forecast after 48 hours when Isidore is forecast to move back over warmer water.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 21/2100z 21.9n 86.2w 110 kts
12hr VT 22/0600z 21.9n 87.0w 120 kts
24hr VT 22/1800z 21.9n 88.0w 125 kts
36hr VT 23/0600z 21.9n 89.2w 125 kts
48hr VT 23/1800z 22.0n 90.3w 125 kts
72hr VT 24/1800z 22.5n 92.5w 130 kts

[newsperson999]

Aircraft will be in the storm at 6z about 90 minutes

[dennis1x]

cool....ill go with 937mb, 135mph

[newsperson999]

Both the new runs of the AVN and GDFL..take the storm WSW..then move it almost due north..the AVN develops another tropcial system off the east coast of FL/GA by WEDS..so we could have 2 systems to worry about..

[dennis1x]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropical_cyclones/tc02/ATL/10L.ISIDORE/ssmi/ir1km_bw/20020922.0500.goes-10.ir_bw.x.10LISIDORE.110kts-946mb-222N-864W.jpg

[newsperson999]

ok pressure down to 937 MB winds still 125..although I suspect that they are keeping the winds lower until the recon can fly around to find max winds..the plane just arrived......

[dennis1x]

this storms winds have been behind the pressure for the last couple days....125 was a little high based on what the flights were seeing today....probably keeping it down to catch up. i think its only a matter of time though until the winds go up in relation to the pressure falls and we see a cat4. if upper level winds stay as good as they are now we may see a historic storm in 2 days once it clears the only negative factor for strengthening (Yucatan).

[newsperson999]

Latest AVN model has it making landfall 80-100 miles south of Browsville Tx in 120 hours(5 days).....of course this will change

[Cloud William]

When a hurricane gets really strong it develops an outer eye in addition to the inner eye (called eye wall replacement). during this time the hurricane is not strengthening. as the outer wall contracts and if the hurricane is to strenghten the concentric structure wont be there. at its strongest there will be one and only one precipitation void with a solid eye wall (heavy precipitation around it.

Do a quick search for the Hurricane Hunters website (Keesler AFB). IIRC, they have radar pics of Hurricane Juliet (Juliette?) from Sept. 2001 which show three concentric eyewalls.

[NautiNurse]

0847Z 935 mb wind 125 mph. Sat shows a razor close shave West along the north Yucatan coast.

Satellite Loop (small)

[Bad~Rodeo]

Oh relax, i'm just joking with you. Noone is safe from these damn things, regardless how far inland you live.

[NautiNurse]

Here we go...wow!

1031Z Flt Level winds up to 140 mph. 935 MB
Eyewall enlarged to C19 Closed

[Bad~Rodeo]

!!!YIKES!!!, I still think that weak cold front that pushed through Central Texas on Friday will keep ol' Izzy south

[2sheep]

Dream of Hurricane Isidore -- one year ago

Sent: Saturday, September 21, 2002 11:07 AM Subject: Hurricane Isidore

You can call me a nut or whatever I had dreams about this hurricane over a year ago I seen the destruction that it caused with its gigantic waves crashing into land with such force the magnitude of force was such it litterly exploded buildings into splinters.  Waves were in excess of sixty feet in height.  People were dragged back into the seas as the waves receded only to come back again and again.  This will be the most destructive hurricane to ever hit land.  I would like all of you to pray for the safety of people in the path of this gigantic storm.  Love, William

[SamAdams76]

Some of the biggest storms have been in Oct. As long as the water is warm Hurricanes are possible.

Name them. The biggest October storm I remember is that "unnamed northeaster" of October 1991. That was the storm that the book and movie "The Perfect Storm" was the subject of.

[Bad~Rodeo]

PING

[NautiNurse]

Hmmm...the interim advisory didn't pick up the increased winds. I wonder why?

Hurricane Isidore Intermediate Advisory Number 25a Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 22, 2002 ...Isidore moves near the Yucatan Peninsula with 125 mph winds... a Hurricane Warning is in effect on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from campeche north and eastward to tulum...including the island of Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the western Cuba province of Pinar del Rio...including the Isle of Youth. At 7 am CDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Isidore was located near latitude 21.9 north...longitude 88.2 west. This position is about 25 miles...35 km...north of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is also about 105 miles...170 km...east-northeast of Progreso Mexico. Isidore has been moving westward near 7 mph...11 km/hr. A slight turn toward the west-southwest at about the same forward speed is possible later today. On this track...the center will come very close to the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and may move onshore...bringing the core of the hurricane and the strongest winds with it. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Isidore could become a category four hurricane later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles... 85 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles...325 km. The latest minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft is 935 mb...27.61 inches. Some heavy rain is still possible over portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth. Very heavy rain is also affecting the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula and rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are likely. Coastal storm surge flooding along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to reach 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along with battering waves. Storm surge flooding could increase to 8 to 12 feet above normal...if...and where...the center moves onshore. Repeating the 7 am CDT position...21.9 N... 88.2 W. Movement toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 935 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 10 am CDT. Forecaster Stewart

[BigWaveBetty]

Is there surf?! I don't know any west coast of Florida web cam/surf sites.

[ovrtaxt]

Try this:

http://www.adamsmark.com/clearwater/webcam.asp

[NELSON111]

Uhhh...MITCH:-) Deadliest hurricane in the Americas. Opal, Miami Hurricane of '43 are some more.

[jpsb]

No, no dogs allowed. One thing I am very sure of is that Maggie would not abadion me. So I will not abadion her.

I'm Ok, It would take a direct hit by a strong cat 3 to put water in my house.