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Saddam is not that mad, surely?
The Guardian ^ | Monday September 16, 2002 | Roy Hattersley

Posted on 09/16/2002 10:09:20 AM PDT by vannrox

Saddam is not that mad, surely?


The Iraqi leader is not about to self-destruct by attacking the US!

Roy Hattersley
Monday September 16, 2002
The Guardian

It was Geoffrey Hoon who converted and convinced me. Six weeks ago, in this column, I described myself as an unlikely hawk. And until last Thursday evening, a hawk of sorts I remained. For I accepted the doctrine of the pre-emptive strike - the right of a nation under threat to take early action against a potential aggressor. I still do. But when I heard the secretary of state for defence - appearing on a special edition of Question Time - give the official explanation of why military action against Baghdad might be a regrettable necessity, I became a Gulf war dove.

Hoon's indictment of the Baghdad regime was impressive and irrefutable. But most of it had absolutely nothing to do with Saddam Hussein's threat to the west. One item on the charge sheet was a comparison between infant mortality rates in the parts of Iraq under Saddam's personal control and those outside his area of direct influence. As Hoon explained that the further a family lived from the centre of power, the greater its children's life expectancy, I realised what should have been obvious for weeks. We are being encouraged to support the war not because Saddam is a threat, but because he is evil.

Evil he undoubtedly is. But that is not in itself sufficient justification for starting a war that will kill thousands (perhaps tens of thousands) of innocent civilians. If it were, God knows how many countries we would be preparing to invade. So next Tuesday, when at last we see the dossier that explains the need for a "regime change", we must not be satisfied with a catalogue of wickedness.

Indeed, the more that the president and the prime minister base their argument on the undoubted villainy of Saddam, the more we are entitled to believe that they cannot demonstrate, even to their own satisfaction, that he is likely to attack Israel or the west.

For next week's dossier to be intellectually convincing its claims must be judged against three criteria. Does Saddam possess, or is he likely to acquire, weapons of mass destruction? Does he possess or is he likely to acquire delivery systems, which will allow him to target America and her allies? And assuming he possesses both warheads and missiles, are there any circumstances in which it can be plausibly agreed that he would use them?

No one seriously doubts that Saddam already possesses chemical and biological weapons and that, sooner or later, he will add a primitive nuclear capability to his arsenal. And he is building, perhaps has built, some sort of rocket, as well as a crude version of the flying bomb that was used on London during the last years of the second world war. But the third question still has to be asked. Why should Saddam launch a doomed attack on the most powerful military complex that the world has ever known? I agree he is bad enough to do it. But is he sufficiently insane to set in train a course of action that can only end in his own total destruction?

The official answer to that question is that he happily gassed his own people when they defied his will, so why should we doubt his willingness to gas Americans and Israelis? On such a glorious non sequitur is the case for war constructed. Saddam knew he could get away with mass murder inside his own boundaries. Indeed, the genocide of the marsh Arabs probably made his tyranny more secure. It only needs one gas-filled warhead to land on Long Island for him and his regime to be wiped out. It does not even have to explode.

That fate cannot be avoided - as some of the more fatalistic scenarios suggest - by contracting out the dirty work. It is possible for freelance fanatics to send envelopes of anthrax through the post and suicide bombers do not need much logistical support. But intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads can only be landed from sophisticated installations by trained technicians. If Saddam was behind it, the world would know and he would pay the price. No doubt he does give comfort and support to al-Qaida terrorists. But if America intends to invade every country that does the same, we are on the eve of another year's war.

To believe that Saddam is likely to attack the west - the only justification for war - is to believe he is a suicidal lunatic.

That is an allegation that I have not heard even George Bush make against him. Indeed, the president is now barely even bothering to pretend that it is the fear of attack that prompts American action. Only two of the five requirements that he told the United Nations Saddam must meet had anything to do with the security of the United States. The other three concerned moral conduct not military capability.

For next week's dossier to make me a hawk again it will have to explain why Saddam is bent on self-destruction. Up to now nobody has even tried.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Philosophy; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: 911; bomb; democrat; iraq; left; liberal; nuclear; saddam; terror; war; wtc
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To: AmishDude
He does not need to use it, he just has to threaten to nuke Tel Aviv or New York.
21 posted on 09/16/2002 11:25:22 AM PDT by finnman69
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To: finnman69
Is saddam insane or just plain evil? One does not have to be mentally screwed up to be evil. We assume because his actions are beyond our moral norms that he is insane, where he may be just pure evil.
22 posted on 09/16/2002 11:34:03 AM PDT by GailA
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To: vannrox
But that is not in itself sufficient justification for starting a war that will kill thousands (perhaps tens of thousands) of innocent civilians.

Why is it that libs never weigh the loss of life from military action against the benefits of the same? For years now the libs have been saying that hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children have been dying due to sanctions. The liberation of Iraq will end those sanctions and give the Iraqis real hope of freedom and prosperity for the first time since independence. Since tens of thousands are supposedly dying each month a war of liberation would save Iraqi lives in both the short and long term.

23 posted on 09/16/2002 11:35:47 AM PDT by Hugin
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To: BikerNYC
He is mad. And don't call me Shirley.

LMAO, you beat me to that comment, Shirley.

24 posted on 09/16/2002 11:37:00 AM PDT by NeoCaveman
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To: r9etb
one cannot very easily dismiss the possibility of Saddam impulsively popping off a nuke (at Israel, most likely), in the expectation that the Islamic world would rally behind him.

I don't think that we could get lucky enough for Isreal to get rid of the Iraq problem for us. I really believe that if one ounce of nerve gas or one case of smallpox (not to even mention a nuke) pops up in Israel, and Iraq will cease to exist within minutes. If we're lucky, Sharon will give us a "heads-up" to get any people we have out of there and I would expect that notice to come AFTER the missiles have left the silo.

25 posted on 09/16/2002 11:37:42 AM PDT by Orangedog
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To: vannrox
The Iraqi leader is not about to self-destruct by attacking the US!

Yes, he is that mad, and stop calling me "Shirley."

26 posted on 09/16/2002 12:19:23 PM PDT by mhking
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To: mhking

27 posted on 09/16/2002 12:22:03 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: vannrox
We didn't use to think al-Qaeda was stupid-crazy enough to hijack one plane and turn it into a suicide missile, much less four.
28 posted on 09/16/2002 12:23:25 PM PDT by RichInOC
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To: vannrox
Of course he's not mad. Psychopaths are not insane, just evil. He would never openly wage war against the U.S. But he could certainly train others to wage war against us, or against Israel.
29 posted on 09/16/2002 12:31:57 PM PDT by js1138
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To: vannrox
Not that mad...

Now who was it that turned on the pumps and tried to make the Arabian gulf into a giant oil slick.

Who was it that blew up the oil wells in Kuwait in the hopes of creating the equivalent of nuclear winter?

30 posted on 09/16/2002 2:05:56 PM PDT by ExpandNATO
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To: ExpandNATO
Furthermore...

Who has been burrowing deeper and deeper into the earth and creating more and more tunnels? Who has been preparing more and more for an Armageddon scenario?

31 posted on 09/16/2002 2:07:31 PM PDT by ExpandNATO
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To: vannrox
Only a Liberal could say "Saddam is not that mad, surely?"

...well, maybe a Losertarian could but you get my drift.

32 posted on 09/16/2002 2:09:22 PM PDT by VaBthang4
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To: AmishDude
Saddam won't "launch" a nuke against the US. He'll use Al Qaeda as a surrogate to detonate it in the US.

Too risky. If the agents of attack get caught, then he loses big time.

He won't need to use it. He'll just have it and then bully the region around. Because although it's madness to use a nuke to initiate a strike, it's perfectly rational to use it when you're about to be attacked. Hence, none of his neighbors would dare attack Saddam.

More plausible. But distracts from the goal of getting Al Qaeda.

33 posted on 09/16/2002 6:45:23 PM PDT by secretagent
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To: Dog Gone
Saddam is not mad enough to think that he could invade and annex Kuwait, surely?

We won't have April Glaspie this time around, and Desert Storm altered the tone.

34 posted on 09/16/2002 6:54:04 PM PDT by secretagent
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To: AmishDude
I suppose Sadam was not suicidal enough to attempt to asassinate an ex-President of the United States, George Bush. If he's crazy enough to do that, thinking he can get away with it, he's crazy enough to give weapons of mass destructions to Al Qaeda to use against us.
35 posted on 09/16/2002 6:58:58 PM PDT by GHOST WRITER
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