Massive world recession to occur if Iraq attacked: Economist

XINHUA NEWS AGENCY / Drudge ^

[RCW2001]

Massive world recession to occur if Iraq attacked: Economist

HONG KONG, Sept 12, 2002 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which operates under the Economist magazine, predicted that the world would suffer a massive recession if Iraq were attacked and Middle East oil producers protested by pushing up the oil price.

Robin Bew, the chief economist of the EIU, told Xinhua in a written commentary Thursday, "Our forecasts assume that the United States does attack Iraq, and that the Middle East oil producers oppose the US action and team up to cut oil production, and thereby, pushing the oil price to, say, 70 US dollars a barrel or more, that would deliver a massive supply-side shock to the global economy and probably trigger a massive recession, similar to the oil shocks in the 1970s," Bew said.

Turning to the US economy, Christopher Nailer, the Singapore- based regional economist of the EIU, also told Xinhua in the commentary that the current imbalance in the US economy is severe, saying that sluggish growth is forecast for both 2002 and 2003.

"We expect the US economy to grow only 2.4 percent in 2002 and accelerate to only 2.8 percent in 2003. This is better than 2001 when the US economy grew only 0.3 percent, but still very weak.

"However, the imbalance in the US economy is severe, and we rate the possibility of a major recession - worse than the 2001 one - within the next two years as a 30 percent probability," Nailer said.

Copyright 2002 XINHUA NEWS AGENCY.

[SnuffaBolshevik]

Right. 500 M1A1's and 250,000 P.O.'ed American troops right over the horizon. These tin pot oil Ho's will be GIVING petroleum to us and will thank us for taking it.

[Cicero]

Current indications are that if we attack Iraq, the other Arabs will do virtually nothing.

[SamAdams76]

"However, the imbalance in the US economy is severe, and we rate the possibility of a major recession - worse than the 2001 one - within the next two years as a 30 percent probability," Nailer said.

30% chance. Gee, that's really going out on a limb!

So I guess we have a 70% chance of having a decent economy if we attack Iraq. I'll take those odds.

[Brian Allen]

<< Bad assumptions. US attacks,in 96 hrs. US controls 2nd largest known oil reserves. Opec shits pants at prospect of competition. Thousands of fat, greasey diaper heads in Saudi commit suicide because their payment for little boys cut off. >>

Gee whiz!

What you just said here is awful!

And I liked it very much, so here it is again!

[dyed_in_the_wool]

Like that growth spurt that started last time we attacked Iraq???

'Zackly

[Torie]

The Saudi's need the money now. If the money spigit is cut back, and the welfare state is truncated, the Royal Family might be out. I wonder if the gurus at The Economist thought about that.

[speekinout]

If oil shipments are reduced out of the gulf and the prices sky rocket,

That would last 10 minutes, just like it did after the Gulf war. Russia, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. would turn on the spigots, Congress would vote to open ANWR, and the price of oil would go way down.
There's more oil than the world needs, and countries that have economies based on oil don't dare risk having other sources become available.

[SCHROLL]

I'd rather be broke than dead, I can always make more money.

[be131]

You can see what the Ecomomist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is really saying at this website. I don't see anything about a world recession.

[aSkeptic]

I am looking into my crystal ball.. looking.. WAIT a sec Wait a sec... The future is bright, I see oil, lots of oil..

I just proved them wrong.

[sinkspur]

Bush was given the great opportunity to bring peace to the Near East, a businessman's properity to the country and a downsizing of government (deficit was rising long before 9/11). He has screwed up on all counts, as they say, BIG TIME.

I just thought I'd acknowledge your post, since everyone else thinks it's bullshit, as I do.

[SauronOfMordor]

Bad assumptions. US attacks,in 96 hrs. US controls 2nd largest known oil reserves.

We don't even have to take Baghdad. Just seize the oil fields, surround them with our troops, start pumping oil at full speed as compensation for all the stuff that Sadaam has pulled.

[nutmeg]

Bump for later

[Aric2000]

Now there's a thought, we just move right to the outskirts of Baghdad. Pump all the oil we want, and let the citizens come out of the city one at a time. By next summer, the only person in the city would be Saddam, then we just level the place, give them their oil back, and let them pay for building anew.

[alphadog]

World recession?...XINHUE must of mistook me for someone who gives a shit.

[Imal]

I particularly like this part: "...and thereby, pushing the oil price to, say, 70 US dollars a barrel or more...". Yeah, that's a good technical analysis if ever there was one. A random character generator could do better.

This article has as much credibility as everything else Xinhua prints.

Imal

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

I read that Kuwait will most likely help us with more oil. At the same time, we have a large strategic oil reserve now. Bush has his ducks in a row. And Saudi Arabia is reportedly cash strapped right now to boot.

[foolscap]

Wow, this is like deja vu all over again. They said the same thing last time we attacked Iraq. I'm sure he is right. We should all sit here on our butts and wait to be nuked. That would be much better for the world economy.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Thousands of fat, greasey diaper heads in Saudi commit suicide because their payment for little boys cut off.

Good heavans! I thought I was hard on them. LOL! You wouldn't be having any social issues with the Arab community, would you?

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Thousands of fat, greasey diaper heads in Saudi commit suicide because their payment for little boys cut off.

I was tempted to mention pampers, triple absorbant, but well, I suppose I should show some consideration toward our alleged allies.

When I stop laughing, I'll tell you how ashamed you should be of yourself for being so hateful toward an entire people, not all of whom rape little boys and/or wish us ill. But in the meantime... ROFL!