Posted on 09/08/2002 2:40:11 PM PDT by Wolfstar
In the 23 years since the Iranian hostage crisis (and including that event), there have been 18 known fatal terrorist attacks against the United States perpetrated by radical Islamists. One, the anthrax attack last year, is of uncertain origin. Total dead numbers over 4200, with many more thousands injured. In the 19 years since 1983, they have attacked us at a rate of nearly once a year, and every year since 1998.
There has been a distinct pattern as to the time of year these attacks have occurred. Of the 19 total, 13 (68%) have occurred in the Fall and Winter months; 12 (63%) between September and December. Two each have occurred in April, June and August (and Iraq invaded Kuwait in August). See following table:
| Nov. 4, 1979 | 52 Americans taken hostage, U.S. Embassy, Tehran, Iran (5 dead in Jimmy Carter's failed rescue attempt) |
| Apr. 18, 1983 | U.S. Embassy bombing, Beirut, Lebanon, 63 dead |
| Oct. 23, 1983 | U.S. Marine barracks bombing, Beirut, Lebanon, 241 dead |
| Dec. 12, 1983 | U.S. Embassy bombing, Kuwait, 6 dead |
| Sept. 20, 1984 |
U.S. Embassy bombing, Beirut, Lebanon, 24 dead |
| Jun. 14, 1985 | TWA Flight 847 hijacking, Cairo to Athens to Algiers to Beirut, 1 American dead |
| Aug. 8, 1985 | U.S. Military base bombing, Frankfurt, Germany, 3 dead |
| Oct. 7, 1985 | Achille Lauro hijacking, Mediterranean off Egyptian coast, 1 American dead |
| Dec. 18, 1985 | Simultaneous suicide attacks, U.S. and Israeli check-in desks, Rome and Vienna airports, 20 dead |
| Apr. 5, 1986 | Bombing of LaBelle discotheque, Berlin, Germany, 2 dead, 150 injured |
| Dec. 21, 1988 | Pan Am Flight 103, Lockerbie, Scotland, 270 dead |
| Feb. 26, 1993 | World Trade Center bombing, New York, 6 dead, 1042 injured |
| Nov. 13, 1995 | Car bomb, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 7 dead including 5 Americans |
| Jun. 25, 1996 | Khobar Towers, Saudi Arabia, 19 dead, 515 wounded |
| Aug. 7, 1998 | U.S. Embassy bombings, Nairobi, Kenya and Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, 301 dead, over 5000 injured |
| Oct. 31, 1999 | Egypt Air Crash, off Nantucket, Mass., 217 dead (Egyptian co-pilot deliberately crashed the plane) |
| Oct. 12, 2000 | USS Cole, Aden, Yemen, 17 dead, 39 injured |
| Sept. 11, 2001 | Attacks in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania, over 3000 dead |
| Sept.–Oct. 2001 | Anthrax attacks, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Washington, Connecticut, 5 dead |
Their 23-year-old pattern of preferring to attack in Fall and Winter, combined with resumed CAP flights over New York and DC, and news that threat "noise" has increased recently, there is a very strong possibility that an attempt will be made to attack us again soon.
From this, I conclude that we have a 37% chance of being attacked from December to August.
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