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Microsoft's Newest Challenger: Moore's Law
Business 2.0 ^ | 28 August 2002 | Eric Hellweg

Posted on 08/30/2002 9:58:01 AM PDT by ShadowAce

n these recessionary times, holding the line on costs is foremost in most executives' minds. Thankfully, in the technology world--unlike, say, real estate--Moore's Law and its corollaries keep innovation chugging along and prices continually on the decline, thereby lowering costs for us consumers. Case in point: You can buy a low-end computer today for $400, when five years ago it would run you at least $2000.

This has some PC manufacturers jumping into a different market altogether: the low cost corporate computer. IDC reports that sales of "white boxes," or generic low-cost PCs -- equipped with less than state-of-the-art components and processors -- now make up roughly 30 percent of the overall PC market. Companies such as Microtel have been selling white boxes for years, but last week Dell announced that it, too, would begin selling two lines of ultra-cheap PCs.

But as prices continue to drop and demand for cheapies grows, one company is finding itself priced out of the party: Microsoft. That's because its standard word processing, planning and spreadsheet software package, Microsoft Office, costs north of $450 --almost as much or sometimes more than the entire cost of a PC itself. With broad licensing deals, the cost for PC manufacturers is likely lower than the $450 retail price, but even so, the software represents an enormous percentage of total costs for the computer maker. As such, Microsoft is finding itself at odds with Moore's Law. Prices for technology have dropped, but office software has risen.

"Hardware [prices are] doing a good job of crashing through the floor," says Michael Robertson, CEO of Lindows, a company offering low-cost Linux-based desktop software to manufacturers. "What hasn't dropped is the cost of software. We're going backwards because of things like licensing and activation codes. The effective cost of software is actually going up."

Microsoft's insistence on its pricing model and ever-stricter licensing plans is opening the door for companies such as Corel, with its Word Perfect suite (remember that?). HP sure remembers it, and announced earlier this week that it would ship Corel with its entire Pavillion line of consumer PCs. Last week, Dell announced it would be offering Corel WordPerfect Productivity Pack (the Corel equivalent of Microsoft Office) on selected models of its Dimension desktop and Inspiron notebooks.

Microsoft doesn't appear too worried, telling News.com: "With over 300 million users worldwide, Microsoft Office has become the choice of individuals who need to be more productive and organizations who need a reliable set of tools to run their businesses."

Should the current economic climate extend even further than many are predicting it will, other non-Microsoft markets could open up, including Linux versions of desktop productivity software. Companies such as Lindows, Mandrake, and CodeWeavers have Microsoft-compatible software out now, but they're struggling to find a market.

One of the favorite pastimes of any technology watcher is to imagine scenarios in which Microsoft could be toppled--if for no other reason than because it seems so damn invincible. These recent developments hardly signal the end is near for Redmond. But as history has proven, it's a bad idea to put yourself on the other side of Moore's Law, a place Microsoft finds itself now that PC prices have finally fallen below the cost of its software. Too many companies have fought the law, and the law has won.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Technical
KEYWORDS: cheapcomputers; microsoft; mooreslaw
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To: rdb3
Outside of that, I haven't really studied up on the .NET business strategy.... Guess I'll do that now.

Do let us know your conclusions and the links you used.. tia..

21 posted on 08/30/2002 11:00:58 AM PDT by TechJunkYard
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To: Malcolm
Hey, Dennis! Where is the Start button on Lindows? Thx, Malcolm
________________

Your Lindows desktop is your start button :)
22 posted on 08/30/2002 11:03:05 AM PDT by dennisw
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To: dennisw
Also the reason for their absurd DOTnet stuff. What business in their right mind wants their data and applications sitting somewhere in info-space on a Micro$haft server?

Dennis, it's pretty obvious to anyone who's worked with the .NET Framework that you simply don't know what you're talking about. You might want to actually try reading the documentation and writing some code for .NET before you arrive at such bogus conclusions. .NET -- the software developer entity -- is merely an application compiler and framework. It is essentially analogous to Sun's J2EE framework; so, it is wholly independent of Microsoft online services such as MSN and Passport. Microsoft isn't forcing customers to put their data and applications on its own servers. You simply pulled that out of your ass.

What's confusing you is that MS has been branding nearly all of its software and services with .NET as a marketing label when, in fact, few of them have anything to do with the .NET application framework. The MS marketers jumped the gun on this one, in my opinion. But people (like you) who have leaped to the conclusion that .NET = MS software rental are simply full of shit.
23 posted on 08/30/2002 11:14:58 AM PDT by Bush2000
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Comment #24 Removed by Moderator

To: ShadowAce
Yeah, BUT:

MS is now almost to the point of being "COBOL." There's such an investment in the stuff that to abandon it might cost MORE than to maintain.

Of course, MS has to make it 'cheap to maintain' for the installed base to remain loyal and inertia-fat.
25 posted on 08/30/2002 12:36:45 PM PDT by ninenot
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To: Bush2000
But people (like you) who have leaped to the conclusion that .NET = MS software rental are simply full of shit.

Oh, come on now. Why don't you tell 'im what you really think?

26 posted on 08/30/2002 12:39:39 PM PDT by john in missouri
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To: ShadowAce
Last time I looked, Office XP was on sale at Office Max and Target for $150. True it says "Academic Version", but who's kidding whom? When it's on the retail shelves, that's the price.
27 posted on 08/30/2002 12:47:39 PM PDT by js1138
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To: Bush2000
...and there can be legitimate business reasons for warehousing data on another server, secured...
28 posted on 08/30/2002 12:50:54 PM PDT by ninenot
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To: ShadowAce
In 1995, I bought 'PerfectWorks" by Novell for $40 at a hole-in-the-wall computer shop. Even though I'm using MS Office, I still go back to PerfectWorks because of all the neat templates and financial programs which came with it. However, it's compatible only with itself. But still an exceptional value and still useable after all these years.
29 posted on 08/30/2002 1:00:08 PM PDT by CWRWinger
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To: js1138
Last time I looked, Office XP was on sale at Office Max and Target for $150. True it says "Academic Version", but who's kidding whom? When it's on the retail shelves, that's the price.

Better have your academic ID ready. If they catch you trying to pull a fast one you'd probably get arrested and prosecuted for that. Everywhere around here requires that you show an academic ID of some kind. If nothing more that means you get your k-12 neighbor to buy it for you for $20+retail cost (can you say easy money for school kids?!)...

So the moral of the story is...... get someone to buy it for you. The store really won't care. $140 in revenue for an academic version is a whole hell of a lot better than $0. (Microsoft usually ships academic versions at cost-of-production-and-shipping to these stores).

30 posted on 08/30/2002 1:45:07 PM PDT by dheretic
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To: dennisw
are you using Lindows?

I'm interested in hearing how it performs with MS software ...
31 posted on 08/30/2002 3:07:04 PM PDT by fnord
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To: ninenot
My old company was big into that. Our customer base was schools, it's well known in the school "biz" that schools are run by C students (exactly the type of people willing to take a 30% cut in pay in exchange for great job security). The sell was pretty easy: who do you want in charge of your backups, people who can find and keep work in the private sector or peole that can't?
32 posted on 08/30/2002 3:15:49 PM PDT by discostu
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To: dennisw

33 posted on 08/30/2002 3:19:14 PM PDT by Utopia
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To: CWRWinger
You can still get that deal now. You can get WP9 (one or two versions back), Quattro Pro, and graphics packages for some $50. These are good programs and just as capable as anything in MS Office. The menus may be a bit different, but the capabilities are about equal.
34 posted on 08/31/2002 11:58:12 AM PDT by gore3000
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