Don't know if the story is true or not, but I would think that if they thought the the supply was going down, it would be a good time to take a refinery out of production for repair.
On the other hand, if you wanted to keep production up, you would postpone the shutdown.
It would be nice to be filling it up with $19 or $20 oil, but it has to be done now.
I still doubt whether we've sufficiently rebuilt our supply of bombs after Afghanistan. We'll need far more in Iraq, in all likelihood, and we were just about out a few months ago.