Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Southern Threat
FrontPageMagazine.com ^ | July 29, 2002 | Constantine C. Menges

Posted on 07/29/2002 2:44:16 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe

IN OCTOBER 2002, a political event is likely to occur that will be a major setback for freedom. If it happens--and it could still be prevented--it may cause as many as 300 million people in several countries to fall under the control of anti-American dictatorships. It could also increase dramatically the threat of terrorist attacks in the United States.

This avoidable event is the election to the presidency of a country nearly as large as the United States of a radical politician who for 30 years has been a close ally of Fidel Castro. Currently, this radical politician is at 40percent in the polls and rising, while his closest pro-democratic opponent is at about 20 percent. In 1990, this presidential candidate co-founded with Castro the Forum of Sao Paulo, which every year since has convened Communist and other terrorist organizations and radical political movements from Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East. These annual meetings have been used by the participants to coordinate their plans for taking power in their respective countries and for executing actions against the United States.

The country that might be governed by this democratically elected radical has a population of about 180 million. Vast and richly endowed, it has the world's eighth-largest economy (GDP $1.2 trillion in 2001), with many advanced sectors, including aerospace and military production. From 1965 to at least 1979, this country had an active program to develop nuclear weapons; according to a congressional investigation in that country, the program continued after 1990 even though a democratically elected president had exposed the secret plan of the military to build an atomic bomb and had publicly closed a nuclear test site. That investigation also revealed that elements of the military had secretly exported 8 tons of uranium to Iraq in 1981.

The radical presidential candidate has said his country should have nuclear weapons and should move closer to Communist China, which has actively courted elements of the military and has made investments in the aerospace industry, resulting in, among other things, a jointly operated imagery satellite. It is also reported that a leading air force general from this country led a group of more than 20 missile scientists who went to work for Saddam Hussein after a democratic president canceled their successful ballistic missile program in 1990.

The country that could come under the rule of this pro-Castro radical is Brazil, which, as a democracy for more than 20 years, has been a constructive partner of the United States and other democracies. Brazil borders almost every country in South America. Under a radical president, it would very likely be the focal point for political and military assistance to the Communist narco-guerrillas in Colombia and to anti-democratic groups seeking to overturn potentially fragile democracies in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru--not to mention neighboring Argentina, already in the grip of economic crisis.

The man who may bring all this about is Luis Inacio da Silva, presidential candidate of the Workers' party. Now 56, da Silva has been active in far left labor organizations and politics since the 1970s. He narrowly lost his first presidential bid in 1989, when he received 47 percent of the vote. With this fourth run for the presidency, he seems on the threshold of victory.

For decades, da Silva has blamed democracy, market-oriented institutions, and the United States for all the social and economic problems of his country and of Latin America. The Workers' party has long opposed the involvement of Brazil with international financial institutions and international borrowing and has argued that Brazil should suspend payment on its large foreign debt. Perhaps that is why Morgan Stanley recently lowered Brazil's debt rating. Now, da Silva, as part of the moderate disguise he wears for campaign purposes, says he favors paying on some of Brazil's international debt, but he's been known to call international lenders seeking repayment "economic terrorists" and to label Bush's Free Trade Area of the Americas "a U.S.A. annexation project."

On many occasions, da Silva has said publicly that he is a friend of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez, whom he has praised as "an example to emulate" if he were elected president. This would mean, first, the use of pseudo-electoral processes and referenda to consolidate his rule as a dictator; second, the dispatching of aid to radical organizations attacking neighboring governments; and third, expansion of ties including military relationships with Cuba, Iraq, Iran, and Communist China.

Da Silva's Workers' party has controlled one state in Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul, since 2000. There the school textbooks are Marxist-Leninist, institutions are politicized and radical, and the local Workers' party bosses are reportedly financed by illegal gambling syndicates. Da Silva points to Rio Grande do Sul as a "showcase," and indeed it offers a preview of the tragedy awaiting all of Brazil if he and his party win the presidency.

U.S. Treasury secretary Paul O'Neill recently drew attention to the economic risks inherent in Brazil's more than $250 billion dollar international debt and caused great concern in the financial community when he said that "throwing the U.S. taxpayer's money at a political uncertainty in Brazil doesn't seem brilliant to me. . . . The situation there is driven by politics, . . . not . . . by economic conditions." A da Silva presidency would likely mean Brazil's default on its debts, which, combined with the crisis in Argentina, could cause immense economic problems in all of Latin America. But worse than the economic downturn would be the effect on the Brazilian people of a radical regime moving toward dictatorship and the risk of destabilization in the region from a Castro-da Silva-Chavez axis.

A da Silva regime in Brazil could soon be followed by the success of the Communist guerrillas in Colombia and the establishment of anti-American regimes in Bolivia, Peru, and Ecuador (where in January 2000 radicals toppled the government in a few days, with help from military officers recruited by Chavez, though their success was short-lived). Thus, by the end of 2003, the United States might be faced with anti-American regimes in most of South America.

If those regimes recruited only one tenth of one percent of military-aged males for terrorist attacks on the United States, this could mean 30,000 terrorists coming from the south. In addition, many Middle Eastern terrorist organizations, including the PLO, have long collaborated with Castro against the United States and its allies; they and the Iranian-backed terrorists of Hezbollah have hidden among the sizable Middle Eastern communities in Brazil and Venezuela.

Already Chavez is probably contributing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars covertly to da Silva out of the estimated $70 billion in oil revenues that Venezuela has obtained since he became president. It is virtually certain that Castro is committing hundreds, perhaps thousands, of his skilled political and intelligence operatives to help da Silva win, and thereby achieve one of Castro's highest strategic priorities.

What can be done? The United States and other democracies should give immediate and serious attention to Brazil. The democratic parties of Brazil and the democracies of the hemisphere should see to it that an honest, competent, effective, pro-democratic unity candidate has the means to compete in October's election against this radical threat.


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: brazil; castro; chavez; communism; dasilva; farc; latinamerica; latinamericalist; venezuela

1 posted on 07/29/2002 2:44:17 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Given the perilous laxity in our intelligence community of late, I'd trust this author's analysis as much as the CIA's. This is a situation probably worth keeping an eye on.
2 posted on 07/29/2002 2:49:28 PM PDT by IronJack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: *Latin_America_List; Cincinatus' Wife
Index Bump
3 posted on 07/29/2002 2:52:00 PM PDT by Free the USA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe; Cincinatus' Wife; Enemy Of The State
Anti-Castro/Anti-Chavez/Anti-Silva bump.
4 posted on 07/29/2002 2:52:09 PM PDT by PhilDragoo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
I hate to get paranoid, right at the moment I am orgasmic at the approach of Castro's demise, but this is the scenario that most worries me.

Chinese money bought a US president. Chinese money bought a Panamanian president. Chavez and da Silva probably don't need to be bought, but are a good investment anyway. A few well placed dollars could cause the tectonic plates to shift dramatically and not in our favor. A hostile Brazil would be horrifying to contemplate.

Chavez is potentially bad enough, with the potential he has to cause trouble with his neighbors, through his support of radical officers, and his support of the FARC. But he is about one mass demonstration away from being overthrown, unless...

If da Silva takes power, and consolidates power as Chavez did, the whole picture changes.

The war in Colombia, already difficult, becomes effectively unwinnable by the usual methods. A latin america that allows Chinese operations free reign could make life very difficult for us.
5 posted on 07/29/2002 3:04:25 PM PDT by marron
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Prediction: DeSilva will win; Brazil will go to hades in a hand basket; South America will follow; He will be run out of office; The garbage left behind will stink for a couple of decades.
6 posted on 07/29/2002 5:16:09 PM PDT by VRW Conspirator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Free the USA; PhilDragoo; Tailgunner Joe
U.S. still hopeful about Latin America -- or so it says *** In a region where politics has generally moved in cycles -- dictatorships in the '70s, center-left democracies in the '80s, and pro-business governments in the '90s -- a leftist victory in Brazil could influence Argentines to elect a leftist president in their own upcoming elections late this year or next year, and could encourage Venezuela's populist president, Hugo Chávez, to radicalize his ''Bolivarian Revolution,'' the alarmed Latin American diplomats say. ''The regional scenario in the second half of this year will be critical,'' says Argentina's ambassador to the United States, Diego Guelar. ``The anti-free market credo is gaining ground. There is a mistaken perception in the region that Argentina was the best student, that opened its economy the most, and that this was the reason why it ended so badly.''

But several U.S. officials reacted with skepticism to these gloomy scenarios. ''There is a general [regional] commitment to market economies and open trade that remains firm,'' says Lino Gutierrez, the No. 2 official at the U.S. State Department's Latin American affairs office. ``We are encouraged that the Argentine government is beginning to take the steps necessary to put the country on better economic and financial footing.''

Asked about the South American domino scenario, another senior Bush administration official noted that the same kinds of theories were floating around a little more than year ago, when many predicted that populist former President Alan García would win in Peru, and that leftist former Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega would win in Nicaragua, and that the whole region would move left. It didn't happen. Bush administration officials are confident that, over the next three months, the U.S. Congress will give President Bush ''fast-track'' authority to expedite new free-trade agreements, and that this will lead almost immediately to expanded trade benefits for Andean countries, and to the signing of a bilateral free-trade agreement with Chile. ''All of these things are going to change the atmosphere in this hemisphere,'' a senior Bush administration official says.***

I hope they’re taking this seriously, very seriously.

7 posted on 07/29/2002 5:37:23 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Cincinatus' Wife
Who taking what seriously? You can't be serious. Look at all the new Jorge Bush voters that will result from this. The Brazilians can now fight the Mexicans for Aztlan. I can hardly wait.
8 posted on 07/29/2002 7:20:11 PM PDT by willyone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
bump
9 posted on 07/29/2002 7:27:39 PM PDT by Red Jones
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Darn! I thought this was about them rebs!
10 posted on 07/29/2002 10:24:35 PM PDT by mrustow
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: IronJack
There the school textbooks are Marxist-Leninist, institutions are politicized and radical ...

Was the writer describing Brazilian schools or American ones?

11 posted on 07/29/2002 10:32:30 PM PDT by mrustow
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
For decades, da Silva has blamed democracy, market-oriented institutions, and the United States for all the social and economic problems of his country and of Latin America. The Workers' party has long opposed the involvement of Brazil with international financial institutions and international borrowing and has argued that Brazil should suspend payment on its large foreign debt. ...

Gunner, even a miserable Third World Commie wannabe can't be wrong all the time! What they don't understand is that their problems are caused by American Commie wannabe's.

But look at the bright side, if the Commies do take over Brazil, the economy of the place will really implode and we'll have about a hundred million new illegal aliens to worry about.

It's pretty tough to walk here from Brazil, but if you're really determined, you might drive! Actually, I am not that worried about it. The Mexicans run a pretty tough border on THEIR Southern Frontier.

12 posted on 07/29/2002 11:13:38 PM PDT by Kenny Bunk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Kenny Bunk
They allow immigrants to pass through however.
13 posted on 08/19/2002 1:46:21 AM PDT by BlackJack
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Brazil 'gets it' (Clinton's former Chief of Staff runs strategic advisory firm) *** Representing 41 percent of economic output south of Mexico and three-quarters of all foreign direct investment in the region, Brazil is the economic engine that drives Latin America. The region's prosperity cannot rev into high gear unless Brazil is stable and growing. If it should fail, joining Argentina, then economic calamity may well ripple through already-shaky Venezuela and Colombia while also swamping Bolivia, Uruguay, Peru, and others. The result could be a contagion that will weaken the US economy as dozens of Fortune 500 companies are forced to report earnings eroded by losing investments in Brazil. ''Irrational exuberance has given way to irrational panic,'' the head of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America recently explained of Brazil.***
14 posted on 09/14/2002 4:39:43 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Marxist May Win the Presidency in Brazil This Fall


The Brazilian 2002 Elections:
A Stacked Deck?


Jesse Jackson compares Brazil candidate to Martin Luther King, Nelson Mandela


A New Axis Of Evil

15 posted on 10/05/2002 3:41:31 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
Lula: Is He Going To Have Brazil Go For Broke
16 posted on 10/09/2002 5:20:29 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Kenny Bunk
As refuguees from a Communist country, they will be granted immediate entry to the United States. So will the terrorists they send.

I can imagine the depths of poverty that would drive a Brasilian to become a Communist. I've walked through the favelas (and lived.) I've been in the shanty-towns and they are an image of misery engrained within my mind for eternity.

All Communism will do for Brasil is ensure everyone can live in a favela. Their waning middle-class will cease to exist. My friends and loved ones will become "refugees" if they can even escape at all.

At least I won't have to travel thousands of miles for a cup of Dona Maria's home brew in a few months.

17 posted on 10/09/2002 5:31:09 PM PDT by Caipirabob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Yakboy
As refuguees from a Communist country, they will be granted immediate entry to the United States.

You mean, like Elian?

18 posted on 10/09/2002 5:34:29 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Tailgunner Joe
US scents political shift in Latin America

Marxist-Inspired Cuban-Venezuelan-Brazilian Axis Could Create Massive Problems For U.S.


19 posted on 10/22/2002 5:45:46 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson