Wild-Eyed Speculation, Half-baked Theories and Myths
Theory(?)	Facts
Richard Ricci has been identified as the prime suspect in the case, though several of his "theme park" pals are under suspicion.	- Ricci is a 5-time loser, having been convicted of burglarizing a food bank and shooting a police officer. He has recently been indicted on three additional state charges including theft at the Smart residence and burglary of a Smart neighbor. Additionally, he has been recently indicted on three federal charges related to two bank robberies. - Ricci worked for the Smarts last year for several months and was paid with a white Jeep in lieu of cash. He had full access to the house and may very well have had a key to the Smart residence. Ricci and two others were fired when some items were stolen from the home. Ricci later approached Ed Smart and said he wasn't involved and wanted his job back. Ed Smart declined to rehire him. - Ricci lives in a trailer park in West Jordan that is now referred to as a "theme park" because of the large number of Ricci convicted felon friends living there. - Ricci has no credible alibi for the period during and shortly after the abduction. He is believed to have put an additional 1000 miles on the Jeep during a period when he claimed the Jeep was in Moul's shop. Moul also reported that Ricci removed several trash bags, the seat covers and a post hole digger and carried them across the street. - Ricci had both opportunity and motive.
Ed Smart and Richard Ricci were gay lovers. This is based upon Ed Smart's pleading before the media for Ricci to come clean, where he used phrases like "Help me, Richard".	This theory was eloquently refuted by Jengaio and it hasn't reared its ugly head recently.
Elizabeth Smart had a nose ring, must have been rebellious and ran away. Later, proponents shifted emphasis to "piercings".	Numerous photographs of Elizabeth Smart show no indication of a nose ring and the existence of a nose ring has never been reported by any credible news source.
Moul, the mechanic, lied to the grand jury and in TV interviews. Some of the scenarios: He knows more than he is telling; his eyesight is bad; he made it up; he is in cahoots with Ricci; he used Ricci's Jeep without Ricci's permission.	Moul has no criminal record and no motive. What's more his vehicle logs corroborate his testimony. If Moul had "borrowed" the Jeep, he certainly would have washed it to remove the bugs, mud and pine needles.
Elizabeth Smart's aunt, in a televised interview said the police "are working with us". Implications: This surely must mean that the Smarts and their influential friends and church must be controlling/thwarting the 100-man SLCPD/FBI task force	We will ask Jengaio to analyze the phrazing.

Motive	Possible Suspect	Details
Kidnapping	All	- The SLCPD has said there has not been any credible ransom demands. This may be due to the massive search and media blitz within 5 hours of the abduction i.e. the perps may have realized that their chances of getting caught were very high and they decided to get rid of the evidence.
	Ricci & cronies	- Ricci and his colleagues have recently been indicted for several Utah bank robberies, each producing only a modest amount of cash i.e. $1800 split 3 ways. It is likely that they were looking for a bigger "score".
	Unknown	N/A
Burglary	Ricci	- Ricci has five previous convictions for theft, burglary, and assault (shooting a police officer). He has recently been indicted on three additional state charges including burglary of a Smart neigbor while they were sleeping (a M.O. similar to the Smart kidnapping) and theft of the Smart home. He has also been indicted on three federal charges including two bank robberies. - The Smarts, like most people, wouldn't keep large amounts of cash around. It seems likely that a simple burglary would not produce much in the way of cash or jewelery. - The SLCPD has said some things were taken but haven't identified those items.
	Unknown	N/A
Burglary Gone Wrong	Ricci	- The Smart perpetrator may have been surprised by Elizabeth Smart and decided to remove the only witness.
	Unknown	Same as above
Sexual Predator	Ricci	- Fox News reported Ricci had attempted an "inappropriate relationship" with one of his old girlfriends 16 yr old daughters.
	Unknown	N/A
Revenge	Ricci	- Ed Smart wouldn't rehire Ricci even though Ricci claimed he had no involvement in the theft of the Smart house.
	Unknown	N/A
Runaway	Elizabeth Smart	Unknown possible motive
	Unknown	N/A

Significant Links
Date	Title	Comments
06/09/02	Still no key leads; vigil held	The younger girl has not been able to clearly describe the man, telling police only that the kidnapper carried a small black gun and was about 5-foot-8, white, with dark hair, and dressed in a tan denim-type jacket and white baseball cap.
06/09/02	Girl's family clings to hope Mom says, 'We won't stop until you're home'	Elizabeth's father said he still can't believe he slept through it all. "I can't understand how I didn't hear something," Edward Smart said. "When my kids get up at night I usually hear them." Some family members say Elizabeth's parents were too exhausted to be able to hear anything that night. They'd just buried Lois' father on Monday after a monthlong death watch. Elizabeth had played the harp at her grandfather's funeral.
06/16/02	Sister reported the abduction relatively quickly Wait was quite short for child, an expert says	Certified forensic psychologist Gerald P. Koocher said it is remarkable the child notified the parents as soon as she did. Koocher, dean of Health Studies at Boston's Simmon's College and a faculty member at Harvard Medical School, pointed out that in other scenarios such as sexual abuse, a child will refrain from telling on or speaking about the incident for years if there is a threat to hurt other members of the victim's family.
06/19/02	Salt Lake police come under fire in kidnapping investigation	"We aren't telling you everything we know about the investigation, and we aren't going to until we're further along," Dinse said. Louis said there is no composite sketch of the abductor because the 9-year-old was unable to sufficiently describe his facial features.
06/26/02	S.L. police say convicted felon is at top of their list	Elizabeth's father, Edward Smart, said during his daily briefing with the media Tuesday he hired Ricci after he was referred to him by another contractor. But he was unaware of Ricci's criminal history. "I had absolutely no knowledge of his background whatsoever. I would never hired him had I known that. I would never have exposed my family to that, " Smart said. Ricci was at times "undependable," but "never in my wildest dreams would have imagined his background," he said. Smart also said that Ricci "seemed nice and could be very personable at times." Ricci left on good terms with the family, according to Smart. But he declined to comment on reports that Ricci had stolen jewelry from the Smart home. Police said Ricci was fired after the Smarts reported some items had been stolen from their home but he was later hired back because there was no evidence to link him to the theft. Smart also said he could not think of any reason why Ricci might want revenge on him.
06/28/02	Items confiscated from Ricci's kin Tan cap, knife taken by police; relatives back him	At 5:30 p.m. June 8, Ricci took his car to Net Moul for minor repairs. Moul describes Ricci as an easy-going person who is normally pleasant to talk to. But not on that day. "He didn't even look me straight in the face. He was not in a good mood," he said. "He seemed more frustrated. I figured he must have had a problem. Something was up." The Cherokee was caked in mud as if it had been four-wheeling, Moul said. Newspapers lined the floor of the vehicle as if someone were taking precautions to keep it clean. But when he tried to joke about it with Ricci, he got no reply. Moul saw two seat covers lying behind the Jeep's back seat. Ricci put the seat covers in a plastic bag, grabbed a post-hole digger that was in the Jeep, and walked to the sidewalk in front of the auto shop near 3500 South and 4500 West, Moul said. Ricci waved to a man who was at the gas station across the street. Ricci told Moul the man was waiting to give him a ride home. The man was Caucasian, had dark hair and was about 5-foot-8, Moul said. Ricci went back to his Jeep and grabbed a second bag out of the vehicle and took it with him. The bag was full, but Moul said he couldn't tell what was in it. What also caught Moul's attention that day was the odometer. Ricci had picked up his Jeep May 30 after having a fuel line fixed. Between May 30 and June 8, Moul estimated between 500 to 1,000 miles had been put on the car.
06/28/02	Hair samples collected in missing girl case	Moul said Ricci was a regular customer who typically joked around, but seemed to be in a bad mood that day. "I was trying to play a joke with him -- I saw his car and said, 'What, you just come back from the mountain and play in some weeds?' but he did not respond," said Moul. "He didn't even look me straight in the face." Before returning the car, Moul said Ricci parked it across the street from the shop and removed covers from the rear seats. Ricci threw the covers into a large plastic bag, removed a post-hole digger from the Cherokee's hatchback and apparently disposed of the items, Moul said.
06/30/02	Handyman denies taking Jeep before girl abducted	The handyman being investigated in the disappearance of Elizabeth Smart, 14, has denied removing his Jeep from a repair shop days before she was kidnapped, a senior law enforcement official said.
07/04/02	Police Plan to Interview Another Ex-con	Police indicated yesterday that they also planned to talk to 44-year-old John Russell Remington, who with Ricci and Young did repair work last year on a house about two blocks from the Smarts' residence. Remington has been in jail on aggravated robbery and bank robbery charges since November third. Remington's lawyer, Steve Killpack, said his client was in jail the night of the abduction, and had never worked in the Smarts' home.
07/05/02	Abduction Investigators Question Sex Offender	In all police are now questioning four ex-convicts in the case and a fifth man who may have been with Ricci when he returned the SUV to the repair shop.
07/08/02	Kidnap Cops Interviewing Repairmen	The men are: Richard Ricci - who has already denied involvement and has been under heavy media scrutiny; Douglas Rex Young, called "an associate" of Ricci's, who is being held on a parole violation and was interviewed on Tuesday; and John Russell Remington, who has been in jail since November on bank robbery charges.
07/11/02	Richard Ricci Formally Charged	While police chief Rick Dinse says these theft charges show a "connectivity" to the Elizabeth Smart case, Ricci has not been charged with her kidnapping. "If I could’ve charged him I’d charge him. That doesn’t mean I don’t have anything linking him to the case, I’m not saying that. If I could charge him and prove it today we’d file on it today," said Dinse.
07/12/02	Father: 'I can't help but feel that he's involved'	Smart said he had gone "the extra mile" when he sold Ricci the vehicle, allowing him to pay it off while Ricci worked for Smart at $8 per hour over seven or eight weeks. But Smart ended the relationship a year ago when he discovered that money, jewelry and other items had been taken from the family's home. After the theft, "Richard came to me, face to face. He said, 'Ed, I want you to know that I did not take it,' " Smart said. "I said, 'Richard, I appreciate that, but I want you to know that I can't have anyone in my home right now, that with this violation and not knowing who took the items, I just can't have you back in my home."
07/15/02	Police at stalemate with adamant Ricci	Police, however, say Ricci, 48, has not provided a suitable explanation for why the Jeep Cherokee he was given in exchange for his work at the Smart home had an extra 500 to 1,000 miles between the time the vehicle was picked up from a repair shop May 30 and returned June 8. The shop's owner, Neth Moul, has told police and the Deseret News that Ricci picked the Jeep up May 30, but Ricci denies doing so. "He's saying he didn't, the shop owner says he did. Ricci just denies any knowledge of that. He doesn't know what we're talking about," Salt Lake Police Capt. Scott Atkinson said Monday. Investigators have called Moul a credible witness, noting he doesn't have any reason to lie.
07/19/02	Another twist in Smart story Police say Kearns woman's story is losing credibility	Ricci remains the key figure in the search for Elizabeth Smart, who was kidnapped more than six weeks ago. Police say there are holes in his alibi. But Ricci has maintained he had nothing to do with the girl's abduction. The biggest question for investigators is the whereabouts of Ricci's white 1990 Jeep Cherokee between May 30 and June 8. During that time, Ricci allegedly put between 500 to 1,000 miles on the Jeep's odometer.
07/20/02	Police Doubt Ricci Was Spotted in Wyoming	Police have said Ricci, 48, is on the "top of the list" of potential suspects in the 14-year-old's June 5 disappearance. Police say they cannot verify his alibi for that night -- that he was home with his wife -- and they are not sure where he was between May 31 and June 8. Ricci maintains his innocence in the abduction.
07/24/02	Katie Couric Boylan Interview on NBC	Complements of Neenah. See post #74

Ping

I believe it was because the perps planned the kidnapping very well and went to extreme measures to hide evidence i.e. the newspapers all over the floor in the Jeep. Ricci did not want to go back to the slammer.
Excellent conclusion. In fact, that possibility is KEY to why LE is struggling. I propose that neither Ricci nor his white Jeep were seen by Elizabeth Smart the night of the kidnapping. (Forgive me if you have discussed this before, as I haven't had time to read all the past discussion threads. But it seems to me that the essence of Neenah's theory is very plausible: i.e. that there was not enough time for Ricci to accomplish everything in the hours between falling asleep and 6 a.m. coffee with his bride. (I'm quite sure his neighbor said Ricci was drinking a beer by 8 that morning, but I digress.) My point: A kidnapping for ransom plot "masterminded"--I use the term loosely--by these clowns would not have had Ricci in the role of abductor, because E. would have identified him after her release. And recently, Dinse conveyed his belief that Ricci was not necessarily the abductor, but is still involved. Now I'm on a roll of wild speculation, but I propose that the white Jeep therefore was NOT the getaway car, because E. would have identified that as well. LE seemingly has not found convincing forensic evidence in it, I think. (Am I saying "I think" enough? Don't know the etiquette of a discussion such as this one; don't want to sound didactic ;^) The getaway car with evidence, I think, would be somewhere else. Ricci maybe provided a key to the house and the idea. And, when the plan went bad, Ricci had to drive somewhere to help bury/dispose of the body. There's no evidence in the Jeep because they didn't use the Jeep to transport her, alive or dead. Whatever happened, I agree that the perps planned this meticulously. It's airtight enough that no one's had to blab.

I think Moul's description of June 8 would indicate that Ricci was disgusted/frustrated/angry etc., perhaps at having had to drive some distance to help bury the body.
But Ricci's too cunning to have left evidence in the Jeep. I think he was the brains behind this whole kidnapping, and yet never touched or saw Elizabeth alive through it all. Nor did she see him. LE seems to have a handle on what happened, but lacks evidence to convict.

If LE lacks evidence to convict, then they lack evidence to arrest or indict. In most states, indictment triggers a speedy trial law which requires prosecution in a certain amount of time. And they can't try this case without a body.

Continuing. If LE lacks evidence to indict/arrest/convict, then it cannot tell the Smarts what they know due to one or more of the following: 1) the Smarts would be unable to control themselves and would confront the perp or blab on TV, 2) the Smarts are involved (some family member), or 3) the perp is such a well known person that the family and the communuity would go absolutely crazy to know that he had done this but couldn't be arrested, etc. until the body is found and other evidence.

Ed Smart may be doing his "shadow" investigation (bringing in Boylan, giving independent press conferences, etc.) because LE has told him that they know who it is but refuse to tell him who. He and Lois may disagree with LE that the thing to do is wait for evidence of a body to act. This reveals the real divide between Ed and Lois Smart and LE: the Smarts think Eliz. is alive and therefore LE should pressure or expose the perp, even blowing the prosecution if necessary in order to find her, while LE thinks that she is dead and therefore nothing can be gained by destroying an eventual prosecution by rushing indictment or public disclosure of the perp.

Finally, I think that the perp is not Recci. He is involved enough to have guilty knowledge which caused him to get inconclusive results on his lie detector test while his wife passed hers. The police are sweating him because they think with good reason that Recci could break the case if he would talk. The Smarts know this, too, and so they are making their own appeals and trying their own tactics to get him to talk.

Once again, the Smarts think that time is of the essence in getting Recci to talk because they think that Eliz. is alive, while LE thinks that the case should be worked slowly, methodically because she is already dead.

That's my take on things.

An article on the KTV site reports that a forensic artist is now working with MK.

http://www.ksl.com/dump/news/cc/breaking/missing.htm

Sorry, I guess this is old news -- I've been away and got carried away! Wonder why the sketch hasn't been released, though.

I'm starting to think that LE knows who has Liz, but cannot find him. Maybe LE is afraid to release the sketch, in case the guy gets scared and kills Liz.

That's an interesting question.

Ed Smart may be doing his "shadow" investigation (bringing in Boylan, giving independent press conferences, etc.) because LE has told him that they know who it is but refuse to tell him who. He and Lois may disagree with LE that the thing to do is wait for evidence of a body to act. This reveals the real divide between Ed and Lois Smart and LE: the Smarts think Eliz. is alive and therefore LE should pressure or expose the perp, even blowing the prosecution if necessary in order to find her, while LE thinks that she is dead and therefore nothing can be gained by destroying an eventual prosecution by rushing indictment or public disclosure of the perp.

Ed keeps saying he has a lot of confidence in the police.

If he is actually starting to lose confidence in them, instead of going on tv and stirring up the pot, he should hire an experienced private detective with a good track record.

And the time to bring in a sketch artist was in the beginnning when Klaus tried to arrange it, not months later. I would have demanded the police arrange a sketch artist from the beginning. MK would have felt that she was helping to find her sister. It would be more tramatic for the child if she realized she had some information on the kidnapper but didn't give it to the police until too late.

His pot-stirring detracts from the investigation rather than helps.

I would have demanded the police arrange a sketch artist from the beginning. MK would have felt that she was helping to find her sister.

You're ignoring published reports where a police spokesman says MK didn't get a good enough look at the perp. (See some of the links at the top of this thread.) My theory all along was that if they could have produced a sketch, they would have.

I think Moul's description of June 8 would indicate that Ricci was disgusted/frustrated/angry etc., perhaps at having had to drive some distance to help bury the body.

It is more likely that he would be chapped if his accomplice killed ES while he was gone.

If there had been a sketch artist in the first place, she may have remembered things she didn't report in the verbal description. It is completely different to describe someone verbally and another to sit down and try to recreate the facial and body features.

We may have had a golf cap instead of a baseball cap from the beginning if there had been a sketch done early on.

We may have heard about the dark hairs on the body from the beginning if an attempt to capture this man had been made.

Because it wasn't done and things were added later on like the golf cap and the dark hair on the arms of the body, it looks like MK was changing her story.

A kidnapping for ransom plot "masterminded"--I use the term loosely--by these clowns would not have had Ricci in the role of abductor, because E. would have identified him after her release. And recently, Dinse conveyed his belief that Ricci was not necessarily the abductor, but is still involved. Now I'm on a roll of wild speculation, but I propose that the white Jeep therefore was NOT the getaway car, because E. would have identified that as well. LE seemingly has not found convincing forensic evidence in it, I think.

You make a very good point - one I haven't seen expressed herein i.e. Ricci and the Jeep could be identified by ES. Makes me wonder why Ricci would have newspapers on the floor of the Jeep and would bother to remove the seat covers, etc. That would lead me to conclude that he used the jeep to meet his accomplices somewhere. He would also need a drop point for his other car, etc. It is also possible that they considered her expendable.

it looks like MK was changing her story.

Except that the police have repeatedly said that MK's story has been very consistant throughout.

The chief has also said that there were some errors made by the media in the early reporting and they didn't feel the need to correct it. It is possible that MK reported a cap and the media and other police ran with "baseball" cap as most people would assume it to be.

Agreed. Ed Smart should have hired a Mark Furman type long ago. Jeannie Boylan should have been called in at once. They should have listened to Mark Klaas. Precious time has been lost, and potentially irreversible damage done.

Finally, I think that the perp is not Recci.

It may not be. It may be Ricci.

That's what I'm saying her story may have been more consistent if a sketch artist had been brought in from the beginning.

If a baseball cap had been put in the sketch, MK may have said the cap was wrong until the artist used a golf cap. It may have eliminated the wrong description going out in the first place.

It also may have jogged someone's memory of anyone seen in the neighborhood with a golf cap at the time of the kidnapping.

Here's what I wrote on another thread:
To: Bella

I would appreciate your thoughts on Jeannie Boylan's statements. I understand that she does not consider herself to be a "sketch artist" in that her artistic skills, while considerable, pale in significance relative to her interviewing techniques. Her forte is her ability to draw people out to remember things which they never thought they knew or might have even adamantly denied that they knew. She uses her very warm and compelling personality to do this.

I read her remarks to Katie Couric to be a very subtle and diplomatic way of saying that sketches are extremely important and the earlier the better, but that a sketch done wrong -- by your run-of-the-mill "sketch artist" --often does more harm than good. Therefore, she was pleased to see THAT NO SKETCH HAD EVER BEEN DONE or maybe even that MK had not really been interivewed. She was able to get very good information because no one had been there to poison the well, so to speak.

I don't think that she is saying at all that it was a good thing that no sketch had ever been done. If she had been allowed to do a sketch from the outset, it makes you want to cry just thinking what a difference that could have made. But the SLC police would have probably botched the interview and the sketch just like they have apparently botched so many things.

The family should have listened to Mark Klaas.

The idea that there was no ability to get a sketch is so preposterous that no thinking person could possibly believe that. Boylan has stated that she got very good information from MK. Whether or not you RELEASE a sketch is a very different decision from whether or not you have a sketch done BY A QUALIFED PERSON (which appparently doesn't include anyone associated with SLCPD).