[FormerLurker]

First of all Swordmaker, let's just reiterate what we both DO agree on. There was NO zoom-climb. It is physically impossible due to the original altitude of the plane and the time that it would take to fall from that altitude. Additionally, it is aerodynamically impossible due to the fact that there was no engine power after the nose came off and that there would have been insufficient lift for the plane to climb, especially at the rate of climb necessary for the CIA and NTSB scenarios to work. Finally, as there was no appreciable loss of forward velocity as would be present IF the plane had climbed, it is obvious that it didn't. Now we DO agree on that so far, right?

Ok, now on to points that we disagree about.

I don't care what you "believe", Lurker. Belief has NOTHING to do with it.

Let's change the word "believe" to the word "know". I KNOW that if the wings were still on the aircraft, it wasn't falling like a rock would fall. It WAS "flying" in such a way that it DID travel significantly furthur than the nose of the aircraft. In fact, the plane veered to the northeast off its original line of travel. This is readily apparent from both the radar graphic and the debris field. I'll post the full radar graphic again, and provide a link to the .PDF debris field document.

TWA Flight 800 Debris Field

The facts are that the aircraft had to cover a certain distance and and certain altitude, both of which are known... and to do that THE MATH SAYS IT HAD TO REACH THOSE VELOCITIES!

Actually, if you consider the fact that TWA 800 was in a AERODYNAMIC DIVE on its way down, one COULD expect the vertical velocity to reach or EXCEED 450 feet/second.

It is virtually impossible to know when exactly TWA800 began to dive, but we COULD assume that it happened at around the time it lost its nose. The nose section would travel in a purely ballistic manner, as it is shaped similar to a projectile such as a bullet. And just as a bullet would decelerate due to friction with the air, TWA 800's nose decelerated and dropped ballistically. Although there isn't much in the way of radar data for the nose debris, we can see that it did in fact impact much sooner and closer to the separation event than did the main body of the aircraft.

The main body of the aircraft on the other hand went into a DIVE, and although retaining much of its forward motion, accelerated in overall airspeed due to gravity. It is virtually impossible to calculate the exact pitch of the dive due to an astronomical number of variables that are unknown, such as the force due to friction in relation to airspeed and angle of attack, the rate of change of those variables, the exact condition of the aircraft at any given moment, temperature of the air, air density, exact altitude at any given time, airspeed, initial pitch, position (and condition) of control surfaces, etc....

So we can just take a rough guess and assume a downwards pitch of 45 degrees. In fact, if you look at ARAP's Fall Chart, it is apparent that what they are calling a ballistic fall looks more like a 45 degree dive for a period of time. It is not perfectly parabolic as one would see in a pure ballistic fall graph. Given that, we can estimate airspeed and vertical velocity for each sweep of the Islip radar if we were so inclined..

Given that the acceleration due to gravity is still 32 feet/second², ideally the amount of acceleration in airspeed due to a 45 degree dive is;

A_as = 32 * sin(45) = 22.63 feet/second²

This is in relation to the notion that the airframe is sliding down an inclined plane, where the plane is the air in relation to the airframe. The force of gravity would be applied at an angle of 45 degrees, with the force due to the air against the bottom of the airframe in equilibrium with that component of the force of gravity pushing downwards against it.

To determine the resulting vertical acceleration due to this motion, we can determine that by looking at that component of acceleration in relation to the acceleration in airspeed.

A_v = A_as * sin(45) = 16 feet/second²

Now there IS deceleration in the forward direction due to friction caused by air, even though there would be a component of acceleration due to gravity in that direction. This DOES in fact cause the airframe to move in a arc, although not a purely BALLISTIC arc. There is also the fact that as the pitch changes, the vertical acceleration changes as well, increasing towards 32 feet/second² as the plane appoaches a vertical dive.

Avoiding the calculations (for now) in relation to estimates of altitude taking these factors into consideration, we can simply use Pythagorean's Theorem to see what the airspeed might have been at 20:31:30.

Given the forward speed of 303 knots (511 feet/sec) and assuming a vertical speed of 450 feet/sec, we'll solve for airspeed;
V = sqrt(511² + 450²) = ~681 feet/sec = ~403 knots = ~464 mph

So it IS possible from looking at the actual airspeed for TWA800 to be going down at 450 feet/sec. In fact, it probably went even faster than that after 20:31:30 where its forward speed had slowed to 110 knots. That is probably what caused the left wing to rip off, along with the fact that there was already structural damage to the aircraft.

So yes, Swordmaker, I can see HOW it COULD FLY at that speed, although the fall IS NOT ballistic. However, the additional speed picked up in the duration of time that its dive was mostly vertical would make up for any amount of altitude that it didn't lose initially in relation to the fact that it was diving rather than falling...

Unless you want to repeal the law of gravity, there literally is not enough time for ANY climb at all.

I don't want to repeal the Laws of Gravity, nor do I find it necessary to do so in order to describe what I just did...

[Swordmaker]

Yes, we do agree, Lurker. In fact, had I not been short of time this morning I was going to comment on that very fact.

I think that the fall was ballistic with a very minor variation from the various drag factors... and perhaps a little lift in random directions. The minor forces from lift and drag are small compared to the momentum of the crippled aircraft.

The nose did fall ballistically... but the mass of the nose and hence its momentum (only ~12% (est.) of the momentum of the main mass of the fuselage) would be more quickly overcome by the drag. That is why it fell more closely to the initiating event.

I am curious why you feel it is necessary to postulate a aerodymanic dive when all of the evidence fits exactly with the calculated ballistic fall. Since the evidence denies a climb, the math works for a ballistic fall (initiating point, wreckage location, speeds, etc.), and there are enough unknowns to keep eveyone guessing for a long time, why ignore William of Occam's razor and invent a complex solution that doesn't fit the observed facts?

However...

Now that you have modified your "leveling out" to a 45 degree dive and dropped the idea of it being a "power dive" I can mostly agree with you. I think we can come to a middle ground where my ballistic fall is tempered with your aerodynamic fall. There is about 6 seconds of uncertainty in our data which could result in either being close to correct. What cannot fit at all is a climb of any significance which would add fall time.

One other thingb becomes clear. That is the fact that in either of our scenarios (or even that of the CIA/NTSB) the Center Wing Tank exposion as the initiating event is untenable... being that the tank was composed of LOAD BEARING (both in tension and compression) members and if they are compromised their ability to bear those loads would be extremely doubtful.

I had a thought looking at the debris field plots. The lightweight, wind driven debris form a random area near and south of where the nose came to rest. This random field is where it is because of wind and momentum if each piece. We know the velocity and vector of the wind. The momentum of each piece could be estimated. It should be possible to plot these out and find a matching average curve back to the initiating event and perhaps give us a better idea of exactly when along the flight path the fuselage opened up spilling such lightweight stuff out.

What do you think? The devil might be in the lightweight details...