Goldman strategist sees rising stocks

CBS MarketWatch ^ | July 21, 2002 | Goldman strategist sees rising stocks (Cohen Alert)

[Always Right]

I think BigCharts and the gold website are going by the older March numbers.

It's good to keep the older numbers for fear-mongering purposes. Gold websites have a tendancy to thrive on fear.

[Soren]

I notice that your source is a website devoted to pushing gold and gold related equities.

That's a valid point, but I've seen similar figures quoted elsewhere. That was just one source that I happened to stumble across today that I had at my finger tips. I agree that these numbers can be distorted depending on your agenda. That's why I'd be interested in seeing what lay behind the 18, because if it is 18, it would change my view on the market a fair bit (though I still would not be bullish).

[Soren]

I think "as reported" means GAAP and "operating" basically means pro forma. In the past, I might not have had a problem with excluding certain one time charges from earnings, but is has been abused more recently to pad earnings. That is a huge difference between the two. Tells you something about the magnitude of the accounting shenanigans going on.

The change in S&P from March is only half the equation. If earnings also fell, then the S&P P/E might not necessarily delcine.

[sinkspur]

two losers have been consistently wrong for almost three years. How come they still have jobs?

For the same reason that an idiot like Michael Metz, chief strategist at Oppenheimer, still has his job. He began predicting a bear market in 1994 just as the markets began to recover and tried to talk the market down for SIX YEARS.

Anyone who listened to him missed the biggest bull market in history.

[Soren]

It's good to keep the older numbers for fear-mongering purposes. Gold websites have a tendancy to thrive on fear.

Anyone who mentions gold is obviously a lunatic. In fact, the other day I was called a liberal and a terrorist. I'm not sure which is worse. I've seen you on several of these threads making sarcastic remarks. If you don't agree, why don't you back it up with rational argument instead of wisecracks? If you can make a bullish case, I'd like to hear it. I mean that sincerely. At the end of the day it doesn't matter much who was the most witty when real money is involved.

[sinkspur]

Apart from whether one has a bullish view or not (I'm trying to get the best advice from fellow FReepers as well), gold has been such a bad investment for "buy-and-hold" types like myself over the last 20 years that I would take anything said on one of those websites with a lot of salt.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Yet another person (this one on the bull side) who is trying to convince everyone that they can see the future.

I've never met anyone yet that could foretell the future (well, Churchill seemed pretty good at some things, but I never met him).

Bulls or bears, you just have to take with a grain of salt anyone who is telling you what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year...

[Soren]

Obviously you ignore data that does not fit your theory!

I'm not sure what you are referring to. Maybe the P/E assumption? I have no emotional attachment to "my" theory. If I have a wrong P/E assumption, I want to know about it ASAP because I have hard-earned cash at stake, just like everybody else does.

[Soren]

I would take anything said on one of those websites with a lot of salt.

I agree completely, and I say that as a gold bug (for the moment). It seems to me that the term 'buy and hold' has come to mean, in popular parlance, investing in something and then forgetting about it. Any investment requires periodic monitoring, even if you hold it for the long term. Gold has been a terrible investment for 20 years, which is one reason I like it. I think it will do well as a safe haven investment over the next few years as we navigate through some very rough waters.

[rohry]

Anyone who listened to him missed the biggest bull market in history.

I agree! I didn't listen to him and stayed in the market until January 2000 (sweating bullets for the last 6 months).

But, the market (now in a bear) has been trotting out these bulls at least once a week to get us to stay in (or get back in) the market.

[sinkspur]

But, the market (now in a bear) has been trotting out these bulls at least once a week to get us to stay in (or get back in) the market.

Just as the markets trotted out Metz, and some doofus who was a permanent bear (meaning all he did was short stocks). Cohen bases her prognosis on the same kind of analyses some of our fellow FReepers have been doing on this very thread. She could just as well be pushing bonds, since Goldman sells those as well.

But, then, bonds suck right now, too, don't they, as the slightest uptick on interest rates will drive them down too.

People who jump out of the market right now, and buy bonds will have the worst of all worlds: lose 20-25% on stocks, then lose 15% on bonds when the market rebounds.

[rohry]

"People who jump out of the market right now, and buy bonds will have the worst of all worlds: lose 20-25% on stocks, then lose 15% on bonds when the market rebounds."

I'm just glad I got into bonds 2 and one-half years ago (up about 15% during that time). What did your stocks earn in that time? The stock market is less than half-way to the bottom by the way...

Bonds don't suck yet, but they will when rates start rising again in the next four months. While you suckers wait for the next "buying opportunity" in stocks I'll have moved on to the REAL next buying opportunity.

[sinkspur]

The stock market is less than half-way to the bottom by the way...

You're shorting too, I see.

Well, I'm one of those who think we're near the bottom, but not quite there yet.

But the DOW's not going to 5,000, as some of you think.

[rohry]

But the DOW's not going to 5,000, as some of you think.

I'm not shorting anything, but I'll notify you when we hit 7,000, 6,000, and 5,000...

You can notify me on the upside...

[dalereed]

Brokerage whores like this will say anything to get people to move from one thing to another. They don't give a rats behind about you or anybody else except to keep the commissions coming in.

[wardaddy]

Boy howdy.....pretty brainwashed bunch aren't they?

[wardaddy]

Interesting juxtaposition.

[wardaddy]

I hope not. I expect an up and down morning in any event. The big portfolio managers will have to decide to get back in to offset the hedge funds who will be shorting. Who will have the momentum is the question.

[hinckley buzzard]

Please. Abby Joseph Cohen has never admitted that the bullmarket ever ended. Anyone who bought whenever this shill yelled "buy" would be flat ass broke-- and a lot of them are... Innocent people have lost billions following her advice.

She has done more harm to the public than Ken Lay.

"Cohen predicts stocks will rise...in other news, sun to come up in the East tomorrow."