Turkey Warns (US) of Lengthy Iraq War

Yahoo News ^ | 07/21/02 | SUZAN FRASER

[Libloather]

Turkey Warns of Lengthy Iraq War
Sun Jul 21, 9:00 AM ET
By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Turkey's embattled prime minister on Sunday warned the United States risked becoming bogged down in a long war if it moves ahead with plans to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

"Iraq is ... so developed technologically and economically despite the embargo, that it cannot be compared to Afghanistan or Vietnam," Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit said in an interview on state-run television.

"It will not be possible for the (United States) to get out of there easily," Ecevit said after a recent visit to the crucial NATO-member country on Iraq's northern border by Deputy Defense Minister Paul Wolfowitz. The Pentagon No. 2 was in Turkey to lobby for it's assistance in any U.S. move against Saddam.

Ecevit said he did not know when the action might occur or what shape it might take. President Bush has said U.S. policy demand's the Iraqi leader's ouster.

He said the United States should consider measures other than a military action in Iraq, but did not elaborate.

"There are other measures to deter the Iraqi regime of being a threat to the region," he said.

Turkish leaders, grappling with political uncertainty and looming early elections, are reluctant to back any U.S. action they fear could hamper the country's economic development and lead to the creation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

Turkey has long complained that it has lost some $40 billion in trade with Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War and U.N. embargo.

Turkish officials have also repeatedly said they fear that a war in Iraq would encourage Kurds in northern Iraq to create an independent state, which could in turn, encourage Turkey's own Kurdish population to do the same. Kurdish rebels fought Turkish troops for autonomy for 15 years, in a struggle that has cost an estimated 37,000 lives.

"There is a de facto Kurdish state in northern Iraq, we cannot allow this go any further," Ecevit said.

"President Bush is a friend of Turkey. We do not want to hurt his feelings, but it is our duty to let them know our concerns," he said.

Turkish backing is seen as crucial to any action against Iraq. The country was a launching pad for U.S. strikes against Iraq during the Gulf War and still hosts some 50 U.S. warplanes enforcing a no-fly zone over northern Iraq.

Turkey is also in desperate need of foreign loans to recover from a deep financial crisis and many believe that the country has little choice but to agree to U.S. action.

After the Wolfowitz visit Turkish officials suggested Turkey, NATO's only predominantly Muslim member, would go along provided the United States forgave big outstanding military debts and guaranteed there would be no Kurdish state in what is now northern Iraq.

[Libloather]

Start by reducing the no-fly zone from it's current parameters to something one inch wide...

[steve50]

Turkey is also in desperate need of foreign loans to recover from a deep financial crisis and many believe that the country has little choice but to agree to U.S. actions

Looks like Turkey wants debts forgiven and a massive increase in aid if we want it to play along. Looks like they've learned the lesson of democracy, politicans are for sale.

[Mortimer Snavely]

Turkey was the very first nation to respond to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. On her own she closed the Turkish-Iraqi frontier, and lost one of her major trading partners.

The Turkish dilemma is this: as rotten a neighbor as Iraq is, Iraq is still a neighbor, and will remain so regardless of who controls the country. In addition, Iraq isn't really a country as we understand it. You've got people who live in the mountains, people who live in the desert, people who live on the river, and people who live in the swamps, and these folks have little in common with each other except a mortal fear of Hussein. Should he be removed and with nothing to replace him, Iraq would degenerate into a civil war between these disparate groups, and the spill over effect would be like throwing gasoline on a brush fire. The problems would escalate to catastrophic proportions. The effect on Turkey would be disastrous, and as NATO's extreme right flank, this would threaten the security of the West and the USA.

This needs to be kept in mind before anyone starts lambasting Turkey for being less than enthusiastic about military action against Iraq. The situation is a lot more complex than just getting rid of Saddam. Substituting analysis of the long term effects of operations against Baghdad with enthusiasm for the elimination of Hussein is very ill advised.

[a_Turk]

True that occupying (humanely - don't forget the international war crimes court) large cities like Baghdad without totally wasting the country's defences would be a very difficult undertaking.. America will have to garrison the place, and will not be able to extract itself in any forseeable future.

But then, does anybody really care about the crap that rolls out of the mouth of, this our fearless leader, Ecevit? I don't think so. Just a couple of months ago he was accusing Israel of comitting genocide against the Palestinians.. His foolish remarks and actions at other times adversely affected the stock market and the monetary stability.

Nobody really takes this guy seriously, and he won't be in office much longer.

[Aric2000]

Wow, I thought that he was doing a reasonable job, but I trust your opinion more then I trust the press.

I just hope that we can figure out a way of getting rid of Saddam without destabalizing Iraq to a point where the entire middle east explodes around us. Well, we shall see.

[Lessismore]

I thought that Ecevit had lost control and that a new election was being called.

The only way I can see Turkey particpating in an Iraq invasion is if there is a military coup before the elections and the generals take over running the country. If the election goes ahead, there are substantial possibilities that the pro-EU or pro-Islamic factions (or both) will win at the expense of the pro-US factions.

Since democracy in Turkey would appear to be an impediment to invading Iraq to install democracy there, perhaps Wolfowitz was laying the groudwork for a coup, or at least communicating support for it and letting the Turkish military know that they would be supported politically and economically if they were successful.

[Consort]

I'm for a long occupation of the Iraqui oil fields.

[a_Turk]

He's a man who lets wife run his party. He shoots off with his mouth too much, and waffles all the time. He is in a coalition with the nationalist party, both their terrorists used to bomb each other when I was a kid. He never had a good relationship with the US, in fact closed down most all US bases in the late 70s. We need term limits, he's gotto go.

[mamelukesabre]

Who cares about what happens to saddam? All we need to really do is seize his oil fields. Without them, he will crumble in time. When we have his oil feilds, we can help out not only turkey's economy, but our own as well.

Don't you think this possibility has something to do with Russia's opposition to an invasion of iraq? Two things would happen: The US would have less reason to purchase Russian oil, and Russia's age old enemy(turkey) would benefit tremendously from assisting in the invasion.

We can rebuild iraq starting with the oil industry. And we can begin doing so while saddam is STILL THERE. Saddam will fall on his own once the people of iraq are givin an alternative.

[Lessismore]

In an apparent U-turn, Turkey's Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit Saturday said he wanted to delay elections until at least next year, once more throwing his country into political crisis.

"Our preference is that polls are not held this year but next year. And even the best (choice) is to leave elections to (their scheduled time in) April 2004," he said after meeting members of his Democratic Left Party (DSP), according to AFP.

However, his two coalition partners, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and the center-right Motherland Party (ANAP) immediately shot down the prime minister's proposal and said they backed the early vote. (Albawaba.com)

[a_Turk]

Everyone in Turkey is aware of US intentions, and would opt for a spot at the table, instead of being a bystander, or worse, on the menu.

I don't think a coup is in the best interest of Turkey. Anyway, there are no grounds for a coup, and the Turkish Army does not enjoy the support and confidence of 90% of the public for toppling governments for the hell of it.

There was a coup once by Enver, Cemal, and Talat - the Young Turks. We all know what happened then.

[a_Turk]

There may be several reasons for his u-turn. One may be that he wants to make sure Turkey doesn't get involved with a war in Iraq. Another may be to wait until the EU decides this winter whether to give Turkey a timetable for membership. Another may be to wait until Erbakan, an islamist banned from politics until 2003 is able to run again, thereby splitting the islamist vote between the two parties AKP and SP. Or maybe his wife just wanted it this way.. Who knows.

[Eagle74]

Turkey is just bargaining for more US money, as they can't help but benefit from a US supported democracy in Iraq. They say that they have lost $40 billion since 91', so economically they benefit with at least a $10 billion a year improvement in trade. A democratic neighbor would benefit them from a security stand point. And they also benefit politically when they are no longer the only Islamic country with a democratic government. They all talk about instability a war with Iraq would cause, while ignoring the stability a large US military presence would bring.

[lwoodham]

I agree, now is the time to reduce the no fly zone to a fraction of what it is now. If attacked by surface to air missles from Iraq then we have been provoked by Gowd.