Posted on 07/20/2002 8:48:11 AM PDT by Pokey78
REPUBLICANS have been pretty sanguine about their prospects in this fall's midterm elections. They shouldn't be. It's true that President Bush's popularity ratings remain high and that, asked which party they would like to see control Congress next year, the voters are still evenly divided. But these numbers may be misleading. In the first place, the corporate scandals will serve to motivate Democratic voters. And in midterm elections, motivation trumps polling, because party loyalists have to be propelled to actually go out and vote. Second, a powerful wave of anxiety is now sweeping across the country as the markets tank. Americans don't connect this anxiety to politics, because it's July. But as November approaches and people begin to think electorally, there could be sharp swings. This has happened in past midterm elections. One party looks fine for months and then suddenly, 10 days before the election, its numbers collapse.
Third and most important, the landscape favors the Democrats. Any number of issues could break their way. The markets could continue their slide. More corporate scandals could come to light. Prescription drug benefits could return to the fore. The SEC could be critical of Dick Cheney's Halliburton stewardship. Democratic attacks on the alleged evils of Social Security privatization could decimate Republicans, as Democrats tie seniors' worries about their pensions to the collapsing markets.
Liberal blogger Joshua Micah Marshall (www.talkingpointsmemo.com) recently published the leaked results of a Tarrance Group study commissioned by the National Republican Campaign Committee. The Tarrance recommendations make for disconcerting reading for Republicans. "Democrat attempt to label GOP position on Social Security as favoring 'privatization' presents serious threat. GOP, Members, and candidates must fight back against this label," the study reported. "AARP is a dangerous adversary in this debate. They have greater credibility than any entity on this issue and are not viewed as partisan," the consultants continued. They recommended that Republicans respond to the issue by declaring, "Social Security is a sacred trust. It must be saved." They suggested that Republicans not try simply to change the subject or laud themselves for having the courage to tackle the entitlements issue.
The Tarrance Group offers effective recommendations on how Republicans can portray themselves as fervent anti-privatizers and so neutralize the issue. And Republicans may be able to neutralize other Democratic issues. But that's cold comfort, because there are few issues that offer significant Republican upside. The political benefits from the war on terror have been reaped. Domestically, the Republican party is as bereft of plausible policy ideas as at any time in the past quarter century. How exactly do Republicans respond to the current moment? With cuts in the capital gains tax rate? With the flat tax? With deregulation? With a crusade to shrink the size of government? With entitlement reform? These ideas, admirable on the merits, are as politically implausible now as any that can be imagined. Worse, many of them have the feel of a bygone era.
The public may not blame Republicans for the market's collapse, but sooner or later people will ask, What are you going to do to get us out of this mess? It won't be enough to repeat that the fundamentals are sound, or to mention the important work that was done to organize the Office of Homeland Security.
Part of the reason some Republicans have been lulled into a false sense of security is that the Democratic diagnosis of the coming election is wrong. Many Democrats--including Dick Gephardt, who last week predicted his party would pick up as many as 40 House seats--seem to think they can win by linking Republicans to dishonest corporate fat cats, by keeping the issue of CEO scandals alive and in the public eye straight through the fall.
That's unlikely. The Enron scandal broke months ago. That was the scandal that presented maximum peril to Republicans. (How many times in U.S. history has such a huge scandal revolved around one of the closest supporters of the president of the United States?) But Enron produced no political fallout.
Still, the Democrats seem to think that there is this organized entity called Corporate America, made up of senior executives, Republicans, white country clubbers, and people who were cheerleaders and prom kings in high school. If they can get the rest of the country to hate these people as much as they do, then they will win elections. Because they have this category in their heads, Democrats see the corporate scandals as tainting the whole Republican party.
But Americans who have not been suckled on the "Marx-Engels Reader" do not carry these categories around in their heads. They perceive no one organized entity, Corporate America, that ruthlessly exploits another, Ordinary Americans. Most people believe, rather, that there are some dishonest people who have done horrible things in corporate America. But also that George W. Bush is an admirable man who is doing his best for the country, even though he once worked for a corporation, and has friends who are in business. In other words, they see the scandals as a crisis of character, not a crisis of capitalism.
The core threat for Republicans is not the scandals. It's the institutions and the economy. Over the past months the country has been hit by a barrage of stories about Wall Street, the Catholic church, the FBI, and CIA--all of which suggests that many fundamental institutions of American life are in disrepair. Anxiety over this is reflected in a sharp rise in the percentage of people who say the country is on the wrong track. In a survey conducted July 11-14, 49 percent of voters told Ipsos-Reid pollsters that the country is headed south, a rise of 10 percentage points over the previous three weeks. When that happens, incumbents, and the party perceived to be in power, suffer.
What's more, the rise of a large investor class makes it more likely that market declines will have political effects. Republicans have been comfortably assuming that the rise of this investor class would help them, because as people put money in the market, studies show, they are more likely to vote Republican (even controlling for income). But those studies were conducted in the 1990s, as markets rose. It could be that the axe swings both ways. As the market drops, investors may take revenge on the people they think lured them there. Anglo-American journalist John O'Sullivan has pointed out that British homeowners who were encouraged to buy homes in the 1980s by Margaret Thatcher took it out on Thatcher in 1990 when home values dropped.
American exit polls in 2000 revealed that voters who were bearish on the markets tended to vote for Gore, while the bulls backed Bush. What if the bulls of 2000 blame Republicans for the market of 2002? That's a lot of angry voters. According to a Gallup Poll conducted July 9-11, 43 percent of Americans think the markets will go down over the next year, while only 29 percent think they will rise. This is the first time in a year that bears have been in the majority. Meanwhile, the number of people who believe the overall economy is in excellent or good shape has dropped to 35 percent from 69 percent when George Bush took office.
The Republicans control the debate on the war on terror and domestic security, but while they have admirably spent their days keeping the country safe from attack, Democrats have been seizing control of the domestic agenda. They are now the most aggressive champions of domestic reform, and will be until Republicans come up with their own (rather than just a me-too) agenda on domestic reform, a platform that is as startling and brave as their international effort to combat the axis of evil.
The Republicans will continue to lose ground as long as they continue to ignore the conservative wing of their party (the largest portion of the party, BTW). The Repubs have been running away from the Contract with America since '95, and, not surprisingly, have been losing seats in Congress ever since.
Conservatives gave the Republicans the edge, and they will take it away in the fall because they'll stay home on election day. What, exactly, does a conservative candidate have to run on? Smaller government? Ha! The GOP is as guilty of the growth in government as the Dems were (and are). What issue this year is going to move a conservative voter to the polls? I can't think of many, because the GOP is completely ignoring the conservative wing of the party.
They aren't called the "Stupid Party" for nothing.
Is that right?
Seems to me the "enemy within", are our Republicans that are acting like the Democrats.
You can argue all day long about sticking to Conservative Principles, but the RATS always have a solid 50% of the female vote, and the younger and more motivated the woman, it seems to me, the more likely she is to buy the "EVIL of BUSINESS" story. This is quite amazing even amnong businesswomen, who for freep's sake, ought to know better.
Add to this solid 50% + or -, the 90% plus pluralities among certain urban ethnic groups upon which the Democrats can usually rely. Shake well. Now throw in massive voter fraud which worked well enough to make Al Gore appear to have been in a very close race for Electoral College votes, when in an honest count he would have had his left-drooping posterior very soundly kicked from one end of the country to the other.
Worry? The Stupid Party should be shaking in its shoes. The well-oiled, leftward-leaning media machines are now orchestrating a very coordinated message for The Evil Party: "Republican Capitalist Pig evil-doers in Big Business have wrecked their companies, thrown thousands in the street, stolen their pensions, and screwed the stockmarket." Get used to it. You are going to hear this, read it and watch it on the boob-tube until Election Day.
In the face of this onslaught, The Republicans offer no rebuttal. Even if we had one, who would deliver it? Who would publish it? Who would coordinate it with the candidates and their election teams in the same professional and organized manner of the Democrats, who after all, have the media in their pockets already?
Bush? Popular as hot dogs. But unless he gets cracking, his coat tails will never cover the seats of the Stupid Party.
Want to pick up seats? Start fighting now, with the Bush guy out in front swinging, calling Democrats what they are. Get that female vote, a 5% shift there would be an earthquake!
No you're right, it could be bad for us. However, now that some days have passed since your post I hope you can see that this can be more of a hot-potato for the Dims. The corruption started on their watch and their fingerprints are all over the place. We must be sure not to let the Dim's controlled Senate keep the truth from coming out.
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