I'm voting for the GOP Perry. Sanchez doesn't have a chance, I think (read as HOPE). 
That is true, but think about the people that is likely to resonate with.
I can guarantee you it isn't the majority of the voters. It's the minority Democrats and especially the blacks. If I were in Perry's position, I would say bring it on and let the blacks be angry about it. I say this because Perry literally has nothing to lose on the issue.
Think about it. He is not going to get the black vote anyway - they'll vote libertarian before they'll vote for a black republican much less a white guy from rural Texas like Perry. In other years, potentially it would be wise to avoid the issue in order to not provoke their turnout, but this year they're going to be turning out anyway because Ron Kirk's on the ticket. Perry's basically got nothing to lose, and in fact would probably gain votes by appealing to conservatives who are fed up with affirmative action.
Same thing on hate crimes. I agree - it can make a nasty brutal attack ad issue. But again, who does it resonate with? The blacks, who will vote Democrat anyway and will turn out in numbers for Kirk anyway. Perry signed that bill and accomplished only one thing: pissing off conservatives who opposed it. The NAACP crowd shook his hand for a few minutes after he signed it then went back to business as usual. Perry gave them the piece of legislation they wanted and they thanked him by trashing him as the worst thing to happen since Hitler at their convention last week. And I'll bet $100 right now that they'll continue trashing Perry through the election.
Perry's doing just the sort of stuff Bush was doing when he was Governor.
I have to disagree with you there. IMHO, Bush was a lot wiser about the whole situation. He did some of the same, but he did it wisely. For example - Bush never had the hate crimes bill come across his desk because he made sure it never got out of the legislature. Even though Perry had virtually the same house and senate, he couldn't stop it. Bush also made his appointments wisely - he got qualified minority conservatives into office especially on the judicial benches. Perry appoints democrats, RINOs, and wealthy white trial lawyers from the big city firms.
You can say these folks aren't conservative, but you can't say they're not popular
Bush is definately popular. I don't think the same thing can be said about Perry. He hold a lead in the polls right now but he has been on a near-constant slide for months. Sanchez' negative ads are definately taking their hits and the reason is that Perry's support right now, unlike Bush's, is largely superficial. Conservatives are not enthusiastic about him and they're supposedly his base. If you lose your base, you lose everything else shortly after. And that is what I fear is happening with Perry.
I'm willing to hold my nose and vote for him, but I'm not so sure others will. Activist Republicans always vote, but the non-activist every day suburbinite Republican simply won't vote if they don't have a reason to go to the polls. As of right now, Perry is not that reason.
I'm voting for the GOP Perry. Sanchez doesn't have a chance, I think (read as HOPE).