TO TAKE TAIWAN, FIRST KILL A CARRIER

The Jamestown Foundation ^ | July 8, 2002 | Richard D. Fisher, Jr.

[Tai_Chung]

China's communist leadership has long anticipated that to militarily subdue democratic Taiwan it will first need to win a battle against the United States. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is now preparing for one specific, and key, battle. It is developing methods to disable or sink American aircraft carriers and gathering the specific force packages to do so. With such a strike, Beijing hopes to quickly terminate American involvement in a Taiwan War.

SHIFTING PRIORITIES
The early 1990s saw much evidence of carrier-related research and nationalist-political advocacy, particularly from the PLA Navy (PLAN), to build a Chinese aircraft carrier. But, following the political crises of 1995 and 1996, which saw the Clinton administration deploy two battle groups around the carriers Independence and Nimitz near Taiwan in response to threatening PLA exercises in March 1996, sinking a U.S. carrier became much more pressing than building one.

In developing that capability, Beijing hopes to deter U.S. military assistance to Taiwan, and by actually sinking one, to terminate U.S. attempts to save the island. This strategy follows from the bias--a potentially dangerous one for China--that America's aversion to military casualties equates to its unwillingness to risk a real war over the fate of Taiwan. This is apparently a widely held view. It was expressed most boldly by Major General Huang Bin, a professor at the PLA National Defense University, in Hong Kong's Ta Kung Pao daily newspaper on May 13:

"Missiles, aircraft, and submarines all are means that can be used to attack an aircraft carrier. We have the ability to deal with an aircraft carrier that dares to get into our range of fire. Once we decide to use force against Taiwan, we definitely will consider an intervention by the United States. The United States likes vain glory; if one of its aircraft carrier should be attacked and destroyed, people in the United States would begin to complain and quarrel loudly, and the U.S. president would find the going harder and harder."

SUMMONING COURAGE
General Huang's statement is in fact not especially audacious, considering that since the mid-1990s the weakness of aircraft carriers and the methods to attack them has been a frequent topic in China's military press. It would appear that the PLA is mustering its courage, trying to convince itself that it can with some success attack U.S. carriers. In October and November 2000, for example, after Russian Pacific-based fighters and bombers made surprise runs against the carrier Kitty Hawk, the People's Liberation Army Daily could barely conceal its glee, devoting three articles to the incident.

GATHERING FORCES
The PLA's apparently growing confidence is likely bolstered by the fact that it is also gathering the forces needed to confront U.S. carriers at a useful distance from the Mainland.

--Sensor Package. Finding an aircraft carrier group is aLMOST as important as attacking it. Understanding this, the PLA is investing in multiple layers of reconnaissance and surveillance systems. In space, it is expected to soon deploy the first of new generations of high-resolution electro-optical satellites and radar satellites, which are especially useful in piercing cloud cover. The PLA has been developing over-the-horizon (OTH) radar with ranges up to thousands of kilometers for a long time. And its Air Force will soon take delivery of its Russian A-50E AWACS to find ships at sea. But because radar can be jammed, it is likely that the PLA will also use hundreds of small fishing boats, as well as agents in Japan, to track U.S. naval forces.

--Air Strike Package. The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) is now beginning to cooperate with the Navy in conducting naval strikes. Later in this decade, elderly PLA Naval Air Force H-6 (Tu-16) bombers will be supplanted by eighty to 100 PLAAF Russian Sukhoi Su-30MKK and about twenty indigenous Xian JH-7A fighter bombers. Both will carry long-range antiradar or antiship missiles, some of which will have supersonic speeds that can defeat U.S. close-in weapon systems (CIWS) for defense against such missiles. Both will also have new long-range self-guided air-to-air missiles (AAM) like the Russian R-77 or the indigenous Project 129 AAM, that will approach the usefulness of U.S. missiles like the AIM-120 AMRAAM. This means that PLAAF fighters will soon have half a chance fighting their way to their targets.

--Sub-Strike Package. According to Russian press reports, China signed a contract on May 2 to purchase eight Project 636 KILO class conventional submarines, to be delivered in five years. The PLAN already has four KILOs, including two Project 636s, with advanced quieting technology that makes them very difficult to detect. The PLAN's new KILOs, however, will be armed with the Russian Novator CLUB antiship missile system. The CLUB-N is a 300km range cruise missile that looks like the American TOMOHAWK and can be configured for land-attack missions. The CLUB-S has a subsonic first stage with a 220km range, but also uses a rocket-powered second stage to defeat CIWS. In addition, the PLAN may now be building its fifth Project 039 or SONG class conventional submarine. Early difficulties with this class appear to have been solved: Series production is centering on an upgraded Project 039A version. For most of this decade, the PLAN will also have some twenty older MING class conventional submarines and approximately five older Project 091 HAN class nuclear-powered attack submarines. While these may be less effective than the KILOs or the SONGs, they will nevertheless greatly complicate the task of the defenders.

--Surface Strike Package. The PLAN is adding two new modernized Sovremenniy class destroyers to two already acquired. Armed with their hard-to-intercept supersonic 300km range YAKHONT and the 120km range MOSKIT missiles, these ships would likely wait behind the submarines and attacking aircraft. But the PLA may also be considering purchasing a SLAVA class cruiser from Ukraine. These are armed with sixteen 550km range GRANIT supersonic antiship missiles.

POSSIBLE PLA ANTICARRIER FORCES BY 2007-10,

Surveillance/Targeting
--2-4 A-50E Awacs
--2-4 Optical and Radar Satellites
--Over The Horizon Radar

Air Strike
--80-100 Su-30MKK w 4x antiship missiles
--20 JH-7A w 2x antiship missiles
--?? J-10 w 2x antiship missiles

Sub Strike
--4-12 Kilo SS
--4-6 Song SS
--20 Ming SS
--5 Han SSN

Surface Strike
--4 Sovremenniy DDG

Missile Strike
--DF-21 intermediate range ballistic missile
--DF-15 short range ballistic missile
--Yakhont antiship missile
--Sunburn antiship missile
--Club Sub-launched antiship missiles
--Air-launched antiship missiles

--Other Strike Options. Another option mentioned in PLA literature is to attack carriers with long-range ballistic missiles. The former Soviet Union had considered this in the 1960s. With proper targeting, satellite navigation guidance and perhaps an enhanced radiation warhead, ballistic missile strikes could disable a carrier. The PLA can also be expected to make great use of deep-sea mines, such as its rocket-propelled EM-52, which could break the keel of a large ship. In addition, the PLA may use Special Forces to attempt to disable carriers in port and attack U.S. aircraft on foreign bases. This is especially critical, given that carriers now rely increasingly on land-based Navy and Air Force support aircraft.

CAN THEY DO IT?
It took the former Soviet Union more than twenty years to build a credible threat to U.S. carriers. China is trying to do so within this decade. To its credit, the PLA is rapidly gathering the right kinds of forces. Skeptics, however, will always question whether the PLA can use them in a sufficiently coordinated fashion to create maximum stress on carrier defenses. Once it has such forces in hand, the PLA will then have to marry layers of long-range sensors to force packages of air, submarine and surface ships armed with new long-range missiles. It may be that the Ukranian carrier Varyag, now being refurbished in a guarded Dalian shipyard, will best serve as a target ship to refine PLA carrier-attack doctrine and tactics. If properly used, the forces China is gathering could--at a minimum--stop one U.S. carrier battle group.

IMPLICATIONS FOR WASHINGTON
In a surprise attack scenario, given its strategic dependence on naval forces in East Asia, the United States might be able to muster only one carrier to support Taiwan. Strategic and economic pressures have reduced its fleet to thirteen carriers with smaller and less capable air wings. Former distinct fighter and attack aircraft are now melded in one platform, the F/A-18E/F. While this might be a convenient economical compromise for the Navy, it is not clearly superior to the Su-30MKK. Since 1999, the long-range antisubmarine function has been taken from the superb S-3 VIKING aircraft, and the number of E-2C HAWKEYE radar warning aircraft have been cut from five to four per air wing. It is time to reverse this trend. It is time to consider the systems needed to defeat China's gathering anticarrier forces if deterrence is to be sustained on the Taiwan Strait.

[Poohbah]

So it's more the issues of despotism and totalitarianism.

Interesting. That makes Japan's failure all the more fascinating, because the Japanese government was composed of military men who (supposedly) understood the concept of campaigns versus battles...

[Poohbah]

The US only found out some Chinese troops of "regimental size" when actually China had sent over 30 divisions into Korea.

The presence of troops is easy to hide, particularly when you're dealing with 1950s ISR.

However, hiding the development of an amazingly capable weapons system from the Navy you're going to use it against--the same navy, BTW, that OWNS the world ocean--that's another story entirely.

[Jeff Head]

Get the book posted in number 20.
<p.
I believe NKorea goes south first though ... probably after some real bad stuff hits the fan in the Mid East ... all with the idea of drawing us out as far as possible before a ChiComm move.

[Jeff Head]

Get the book posted in number 20.

I believe NKorea goes south first though ... probably after some real bad stuff hits the fan in the Mid East ... all with the idea of drawing us out as far as possible before a ChiComm move.

[Poohbah]

Already read it.

And ignored it, I see.

And whether you believe it or not, it is possible for others to take us by surprise ... just read up on your history.

The problem is that your surprise depends on a magical piece of technology that somehow got thorough testing--presumably at sea--in an era when the US Navy owns the world ocean--and that the Navy never got a whisper about it during said testing.

It would be akin to the US successfully developing stealth aircraft without the Soviets ever learning about it. And that said development was performed at a top secret facility--that just happened to be right next door to GRU headquarters.

[Jeff Head]

Actually, not ignored at all. That's all your blustering about a book you have not read ... telling me what I know or apply about one I have read.

Fairly typical.

Anyhow ... it's clear your opinon is made up before you ever crack its cover (which is not surprising actually because it more or less projects your oft stated opinion on many other issues ... and since I wrote the thing ... 2+2 kind of a thing) so its relatively uselss trying to speak to you more about it.

But, like I have been saying ... that's okat with me too. It is a fictional novel ... let's try that again on for size ... a fictional novel. I hope people enjoy it while they read it and that they think a little about those things I mentioned above while doing so. No more and no less.

I have enjoyed BUMP'ing this thread though and getting some tidbits out there for other lurkers/readers. Thanks for being a part of that process at any rate.

[Lake]

>>The ROC's are a fairly well trained defense force of some 220,000 men on active duty. God knows how many can be called up on short notice.

Taiwan is downsizing its army and all of the enlisted stay for only a year. God knows how they are trained when outdoor trainng has to be stopped if the temperature is above 35 C.

>>Otherwise, how can they get the bodies they need ashore to master the Taiwanese defense?

Cargo ships work just as well.

>>They have to get about 300,000 infantry and support personnel from Fujian province well over 100 miles of water.

They can take Penghui first as the springboard. The island sits in the middle of the strait.

>>This may include an airborne division landing, probably as a feint, up north or against Taiwanese communications nodes.

They don't have to resort to ground forces to destroy the communications systems. Missiles and fight bombers can get the job done.

>>They need normal, real, honest-to-God transports and amphibious assault craft. They need tons o' Higgins Boats to make a forced assault against defended beaches.

To send lead forces, they don't have to make a forced assault. Deception and surprise will be enough to take a few ports.

>>The Chinese are falling into the trap that the Japanese did of thinking in terms of the Decisive Battle.

"Decisive battle" is your assumption, not Chinese way of thinking. Comparing Japan who has extremely limited resouces in a small island to China doesn't make sense.

>>This is exactly what the Chinese are doing now. They are building themselves up for a decisive battle in the hopes that that a smashing victory can cow the Americans into submission. And that's just the political assumption that they have made.

>>Here is the dunderheaded military assumption: Japan will stay neutral and the United States will come charging into a Chinese missile trap like a wild bull.

>> the U.S. Navy and the Combined Fleet will be working as allies in this war.

>>After all, Japan cannot afford to allow China to control the sea lanes leading to the Home Islands.

You have made some assumptions here that I don't think China will make.

1) You assume China wants to take Taiwan in order to drive the US out.

2) You assume China believes Japan will be neutral.

3) You assume China wants take Taiwan in order to the sea lanes.

I don't think any of them is valid. The only reason for China to use force agaisnt Taiwan is because China can't afford the consequence of losing Taiwan.

>>I mentioned the need for the Chicoms to get 300,000 guys across by hook or by crook. Well, most of them are going in transports. We will have a war warning. You have to gather troops at Fujian province to load them onto the boats.

Have you ever studied the PLA's battle for Hainan Island in 1950 when the PLA had no navy and air force?

>>Now if you're Admiral Yang or somesutch, you have to look forward to a cruise missile curtain as your troopships are going accross the Strait.

Gathering a few hundreds of thousands of troops in Fujian is not a big deal and Taiwan and the US are used to it now because the PLA carries out war games of this magnitude every year.

>>Only we will let the Chinese come out to play.

The PLA will never attack first before they are attacked by the US. The question is: what will the US do to militarily assist Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan? Does the US have to attack the Chinese forces first?

[Poohbah]

If the Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, then the US will attack Chinese forces engaged in said invasion.

[Lake]

>>If the Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, then the US will attack Chinese forces engaged in said invasion.

Strike FIRST? If so, that's not the Pearl Harbor scenario. China is not attacking the US first. Instead China will be the defender against the US provocation. The dynamic is completely changed.

[Poohbah]

If the Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, then the US will attack Chinese forces engaged in said invasion.

Strike FIRST?

No, the Chinese would be striking first. DO try to use more than one neuron at a time on Free Republic.

If so, that's not the Pearl Harbor scenario.

Absolutely correct. It's more akin to Operation Desert Storm.

China is not attacking the US first.

But they would be attacking US interests--and that is the sure-firest way to get the US shooting at them.

Instead China will be the defender against the US provocation.

No, the US is defending Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

The dynamic is completely changed.

That's what Saddam Hussein thought. He got stomped.

Mess with the bull...you're going to get the horns.

[DB]

Were talking about taking out a carrier.

If they do using a Sunburn missile we will have been attacked with nuclear weapons first, not conventional as Zarf thinks. The idea using the Sunburn is that it only has to be close, not a direct hit.

[DB]

Let's try again...

We're talking about taking out a carrier.

If they do so using a Sunburn missile we will have been attacked with nuclear weapons first, not conventional as Zarf thinks. The whole idea using the Sunburn is that it only has to be close, not a direct hit.

[jamaksin]

No, no - not at the carrier - LA and environs would do just fine. An air-burst might be the way to go.

Simple fact is their ability to do it came via an interesting route.

You found a true copy of JD#7001 yet? Better still, are you even looking?

[CIB-173RDABN]

I think the aftermath of 9-11 has PROVED that we are unwilling to do what it takes to defend ourselves.

---

I disagree. I will allow this administration more time needed to do the job right. One of the things is not to inflame passions before you are ready.

If, by the 2004 elections you are proven correct, then President Bush will lose his run for re-election (and rightly so). But these things take time, and I am willing to wait.

[Poohbah]

I can guarantee you that if a nation-state were to launch a nuclear attack against the United States, that nation-state would cease to exist as a national polity and become something out of a Grade-B "post-holocaust" flick.

[Libertarian_4_eva]

This strategy follows from the bias--a potentially dangerous one for China--that America's aversion to military casualties equates to its unwillingness to risk a real war over the fate of Taiwan. This is apparently a widely held view

This is also the correct view. While the U.K. and Canada go hunting the taliban our men just sit around on their butts. Our armed forces are still dealing with what has been called the vietnam syndrome. In almost every single combat theather around the world when american service men start to die we start to pullout.

[jamaksin]

Agreed.

The initial point, however, was the China capability came from an interesting route.

A similar "interesting" route for you - comment, please, on why via Lend-Lease Stalin got tens of tons of nuclear materials from the United States in ... 1943. [You can look up the date for the Trinity Test yourself.]

[vbmoneyspender]

There was a pretty successful precedent for the way the Japanese attacked us in WWII. That precedent was the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05. The war started with the Japanese launching a surprise attack on Russia's Pacific Fleet at Port Arthur. The Japanese then inflicted a crushing defeat on Russia's European fleet when they crossed the 'T' at the Tsushima Straits. Japan's operational plan in WWII was pretty much an attempted repeat of what they had done to the Russians. They first launched a surprise attack on our fleet at Pearl Harbor (which would have been crushingly successful if our aircraft carriers hadn't been at sea). Then they attempted to deliver a Tsushima-style defeat at Midway. This type of plan had worked once before. Thankfully, though, our Navy and Marines were a bit sharper than the Russians.

[virgil]

Nice analysis. Thanks!

[tallhappy]

I enjoyed reading your comments. Thank you for posting them.

I have one correction or FYI.

Concerning this:

The present group of Chinese leaders, being a gaggle of conspirators in search of legitimacy, would be in need of a great victory to show the population on CTV and in People's Daily.

CTV is a Taiwan network.

China calls theirs CCTV -- two C's.