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>>The ROC's are a fairly well trained defense force of some 220,000 men on active duty. God knows how many can be called up on short notice.

Taiwan is downsizing its army and all of the enlisted stay for only a year. God knows how they are trained when outdoor trainng has to be stopped if the temperature is above 35 C.

>>Otherwise, how can they get the bodies they need ashore to master the Taiwanese defense?

Cargo ships work just as well.

>>They have to get about 300,000 infantry and support personnel from Fujian province well over 100 miles of water.

They can take Penghui first as the springboard. The island sits in the middle of the strait.

>>This may include an airborne division landing, probably as a feint, up north or against Taiwanese communications nodes.

They don't have to resort to ground forces to destroy the communications systems. Missiles and fight bombers can get the job done.

>>They need normal, real, honest-to-God transports and amphibious assault craft. They need tons o' Higgins Boats to make a forced assault against defended beaches.

To send lead forces, they don't have to make a forced assault. Deception and surprise will be enough to take a few ports.

>>The Chinese are falling into the trap that the Japanese did of thinking in terms of the Decisive Battle.

"Decisive battle" is your assumption, not Chinese way of thinking. Comparing Japan who has extremely limited resouces in a small island to China doesn't make sense.

>>This is exactly what the Chinese are doing now. They are building themselves up for a decisive battle in the hopes that that a smashing victory can cow the Americans into submission. And that's just the political assumption that they have made.

>>Here is the dunderheaded military assumption: Japan will stay neutral and the United States will come charging into a Chinese missile trap like a wild bull.

>> the U.S. Navy and the Combined Fleet will be working as allies in this war.

>>After all, Japan cannot afford to allow China to control the sea lanes leading to the Home Islands.

You have made some assumptions here that I don't think China will make.

1) You assume China wants to take Taiwan in order to drive the US out.

2) You assume China believes Japan will be neutral.

3) You assume China wants take Taiwan in order to the sea lanes.

I don't think any of them is valid. The only reason for China to use force agaisnt Taiwan is because China can't afford the consequence of losing Taiwan.

>>I mentioned the need for the Chicoms to get 300,000 guys across by hook or by crook. Well, most of them are going in transports. We will have a war warning. You have to gather troops at Fujian province to load them onto the boats.

Have you ever studied the PLA's battle for Hainan Island in 1950 when the PLA had no navy and air force?

>>Now if you're Admiral Yang or somesutch, you have to look forward to a cruise missile curtain as your troopships are going accross the Strait.

Gathering a few hundreds of thousands of troops in Fujian is not a big deal and Taiwan and the US are used to it now because the PLA carries out war games of this magnitude every year.

>>Only we will let the Chinese come out to play.

The PLA will never attack first before they are attacked by the US. The question is: what will the US do to militarily assist Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan? Does the US have to attack the Chinese forces first?

If the Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan, then the US will attack Chinese forces engaged in said invasion.

...and all of the enlisted stay for only a year. God knows how they are trained when outdoor trainng has to be stopped if the temperature is above 35 C.

Where did you get this information? That is not correct. Navy & Airforce enlisted are required to stay 3 years because of the nature of technology training. Army enlisted stay for 2 years and special forces stay for 3 years.

When I was in the Army there we never were stopped because of the hot weather.

I participated couple war games with Army reserves, 10 day training for those reserves. I was totally amazed by their ability to pick up so quick and fight so well even with some had beer bellies.

1) You assume China wants to take Taiwan in order to drive the US out.

A correct assumption. The Taiwanese will not declare independence first. China will attempt to invade at a time of its own choosing. China wants its place in the Sun, a la Wilhelmine Germany in the post-Bismarck era. To attain this manifest destiny of theirs, they must of needs be confront the Americans.

2) You assume China believes Japan will be neutral.

I believe that the Chinese will try to use diplomacy to neutralize Japan, but that Japan, recognizing its vital commercial and national interests do not lie with becoming a "tribute kingdom" of the Forbidden City, will act militarily in its own defense.

3) You assume China wants take Taiwan in order to the sea lanes.

My assumption is correct. Control of the Taiwan strait gives China sway over the sea lanes which lie between Indonesia and Japan. Neutralization of Japanese power is a long term Chinese strategic goal. It would be your goal too if you had a national memory of millions of your countrymen dying at the hands of the Imperial Japanese Army.

The PLA will never attack first before they are attacked by the US. The question is: what will the US do to militarily assist Taiwan if China attacks Taiwan? Does the US have to attack the Chinese forces first?

Yes, they will. I cite Korea as a historical example. The United States assumed, incorrectly, the China would not attack unless attack first. The Chinese attacked in force and with relish, forcing Eighth Army out of North Korea and MacArthur into retirement.

A few other items:

They can take Penghui first as the springboard. The island sits in the middle of the strait.

Which sort of gives the whole game away, eh? If you're going to take Taiwan, you don't exactly advertise it on Broadway by taking Penghui, now do you?

They don't have to resort to ground forces to destroy the communications systems. Missiles and fight bombers can get the job done.

Absolute bollocks. What about Taiwan's underground facilities? Airbases? Communications centers and redundant stations? Sorry, if you're the Chinese, you've got to have maximum shock, from the getgo. Gotta send in the airborne. This does not mean that you don't use ALCM's and fighter aircraft.

Have you ever studied the PLA's battle for Hainan Island in 1950 when the PLA had no navy and air force?

No, I have not. Question, however: did the PLA's opponents have cruise missiles and nuclear submarines? I didn't think so.

The fact is, the Chinese will have to move the equivalent of a full field army across the straits. That will be an enormous undertaking. You can't land on beaches with cargo ships. You need assault boats. They provide targets.

"Decisive battle" is your assumption, not Chinese way of thinking. Comparing Japan who has extremely limited resouces in a small island to China doesn't make sense.

Then why do they insist on building up the blue ocean version of their navy to kill carriers if not to wage the decisive battle? China is primarily a land power. She has not been a maritime power since the 15th Century. However, she must find a way to engage the U.S. Navy in proximity to the Chinese homeland that works to China's advantage.

I point out that China's need to get troops across the Strait provides the seeds of her own defeat.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

Have you ever studied the PLA's battle for Hainan Island in 1950 when the PLA had no navy and air force?
***Nope. Perhaps there's a reference or a book I could keep an eye out for?