The Coming Attack

On May 18 the New York Times reported that U.S. intelligence had intercepted a “troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives” about an intensive effort “to carry out an operation as big as or bigger than the Sept. 11 attacks….” According to the Times, the details of al Qaeda’s plans are yet unknown. “There’s just a lot of chatter in the system again,” one official told the Times. This “chatter” is alarming because it contains references to attacks that would cause “vast numbers of American casualties.” What kinds of attacks are indicated? In the last few weeks al Qaeda spokesmen have begun to publicly discuss what the Americans can expect.

In a recent message broadcast on al Jazeera television in the Middle East, al Qaeda spokesman and Kuwaiti-born Muslim cleric Sulaiman Abu Ghaith said that Osama bin Laden is preparing further attacks on the United States. “The al Qaeda leadership is 98 percent intact,” said Abu Ghaith, and bin Laden is still running the show. Earlier this month Abu Ghaith reportedly said, “America should get ready and fasten its safety belt. We will come at them from a direction they do not expect. Yes, we will make attacks but at the right time, at the place we choose after the fashion we please.”

The place of attack will almost certainly be inside the United States and the time may be soon. The Arabic Sahab website (ÇáÕÝÍÉ ÇáÚÑÈíÉ ÇáÅÓáÇãíÉ ÓÍÇÈ ) has reported that Osama bin Laden will be releasing a video on July 4. The timing is suggestive, adding subtle confirmation to earlier reports that an attack against America has been planned for July. More than two weeks ago the website www.alneda.com (also now defunct) briefly carried a message in Arabic from Abu Ghaith that said, “We are still at the beginning of the road. The Americans have not yet suffered from us what we have suffered from them.” He then added that Islam has “the right to kill four million Americans, including one million children, displace double that figure and injure and cripple hundreds of thousands.”

The key comment in Abu Ghaith’s statement is his reference to “displacing double” the figure killed. Chemical and biological weapons cannot do this in the stated proportions. Furthermore, an attacker cannot come up with large approximate casualty projections for biological and chemical weapons, where the results of attacks depend on weather and variable weapon potency (often incalculable). Only nuclear weapons aimed at cities promise such casualty figures.

A handful of small tactical nuclear devices with yields between one and 10 kilotons could not produce such a large result. The Hiroshima bomb, which was 15 kilotons, only managed to kill 100,000 people. Today’s American cities would probably sustain fewer casualties than a 1945 Japanese city because of modern earthquake and fire standards. Even if the Hiroshima result could be replicated under American conditions, forty Hiroshima bombs would be required to kill 4 million Americans. Quite naturally, it is improbable that al Qaeda would be able to acquire, let alone manage, forty nuclear devices. If Abu Ghaith’s statements reflect an actual plan of attack, it would mean that al Qaeda has several large-yield nuclear devices in the 100 to 500 kiloton range. Such devices could effectively gut a major city, killing millions and leaving millions homeless. Furthermore, the successful use of such weapons against seven U.S. cities might collapse the U.S. economy, discredit the U.S. government and demoralize the American people. Such an attack would also make good on the terrorist promise that the U.S. dollar will become absolutely worthless in short order.

But are Abu Ghaith’s pronouncements reliable? Are they, perhaps, intended to frighten or impress weak-minded people?

It is significant that Ghaith’s statements mirror similar statements made privately among al Qaeda operatives. As a rule of thumb: when secret communications reflect public pronouncements, it is time to pay close attention. Under such circumstances, U.S. officials should be exhaustively investigating all reports suggestive of a possible nuclear attack.

The story of Lebanese-born American Michael Hamdan may be relevant. Hamdan says he overheard a mobile phone conversation in Arabic about a projected attack on Las Vegas: “We are here in the city of corruption,” the Arab speakers allegedly stated, “the city of gambling and prostitution, the city of unbelievers.” They spoke of hitting the city on America’s “day of freedom,” the Fourth of July. While Hamdan’s testimony did not impress the FBI lie detectors, Independence Day has shown up elsewhere in reports related to terror. In fact, the Fourth of July has shown up in the internal al Qaeda “chatter” before. Also remember, as stated earlier, the Arabic Sahab website claims that bin Laden will deliver a special “televised address to the world” via videotape on July 4.

Statements from bin Laden since Sept. 11 have been few and far between. Normally talkative and in love with publicity, bin Laden’s great silence in recent months has been taken by some as evidence that he is dead. Now we are told to expect to hear from him on American Independence Day. Are all these references to one special day merely coincidental?

With limited information, nobody outside of al Qaeda can say with any certainty. What is certain, however, is that the United States remains vulnerable. The basic security problem that brought us 9/11 has not been solved. America has wasted the last nine months, failing to deal adequately with the domestic terror threat. This is obvious when it comes to the issue of foreign infiltrators determined to import nuclear, biological or chemical terror. Despite 9/11, American’s continue to put civil liberties first and security last. The prevailing mindset in the country emphasizes civil liberties at the expense of security, so that law enforcement, counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism are yet hamstrung.

The terrifying significance of countless enemy aliens operating in the United States has not registered. The fact that mass destruction weapons could be smuggled into the country has not altered the country’s adherence to political ideals that have always given way during times of war. But not today.

According to sources in law enforcement, forty terrorist infiltrators are believed to have entered the Los Angeles area by boat in early June. There are clues suggestive of a maritime terrorist attack against San Francisco. It seems that a “Middle Eastern” man recently took the ferry to Alcatraz. When the boat arrived on the island he didn’t get off. Instead, he videotaped naval traffic in the Bay while using a stopwatch. In another incident, dating back to October, three Middle Eastern men boarded a ferry at Pier 41 for Alameda. One of them alarmed the crew by climbing to the upper deck to watch the captain. Meanwhile his associates videotaped Anchorage Terminal 9, also using a stopwatch. In yet another San Francisco incident, dated Oct. 20, six Golden Gate Transit uniforms were taken from a ferry employee’s car, along with ferry schedules and maritime maps. The thieves neglected to steal money and CDs that were left in the car.

Whatever the terrorists are planning, San Francisco is a chief target. There is growing concern that a sea-borne attack against U.S. cities is coming. And why would terrorists be interested in the ferry schedule to Alcatraz? Perhaps it makes sense because Alcatraz offers reliable sheltering and is a good observation point for terrorist operatives immediately after a nuclear weapon is set to detonate in a shipping container sitting at an anchorage terminal.

This column is intended to frighten Americans because Americans ought to be frightened. At present the country acts as if 9/11 did not happen. We are not taking sufficient steps, we are not acting with the warlike emphasis of times past, because America is not sufficiently alarmed. Apparently we cannot rouse ourselves to overhaul inadequate security measures, to pay the price of greater protection, on a basis of simple prudence. It seems that our hair must be made to stand on end. Unfortunately, if something dreadful happens next week (i.e., something nuclear) the attending panic might produce an even worse result – paralysis.

I pray that nothing happens. I pray that the terrorists lack the weapons since they do not lack the will to use them. For it is certain that we lack the will to eject all resident and illegal aliens from the offending region. And lacking that will, infiltration by enemy operatives is relatively easy.

Also, if they really possess WMD why were they not used on 9/11 when America was asleep at the wheel?

This gets repeated a lot here, but it doesn't make it logical.

What is the tactical advantage in using your one nuke, pissing off the entire nation - and causing us to respond by turning the MidEast into the worlds largest glass sculpture?

The 'use your biggest stick' theory only works if your stick can take your enemy down on the first blow. If the Muslim plan is a long war of attrition, then there's no point in using your biggest and best first. You'd use it at a time to cause the most political, economic and military damage possible. Or you'd wait until you had more than one stick....

I think 9/11 was the big attack but it was only partially successful as the WH or the Capital was not hit. Will there be more attacks? I’m sure there will be. They will be when we don’t expect them and they will be designed to slowly weaken our resolve. I expect a strategy similar to terrorism in Israel.

I mostly agree except that I think a much worse attack is coming, although not for at least a couple of years. One major step to stopping a worse attack is getting rid of the PC mentality that has taken over the U.S.
Unfortunately, I doubt that will happen.

Thanks for your post. Is he trying to create terror, or give us a heads up? He has my attention. I guess a heads up works. But if you read the posts, we have read posts of fellow Freepers, going balistic, "did i spell that correctly?". I try to keep my family and my employees informed about what is going on. I hate to pass on mindless miss information. I do want to pass on heads up. Your imput trusted, VERIFY for me, please. Tom

Whatever the terrorists are planning, San Francisco is a chief target.

No tinfoil called for.

Things may be worse than the media is letting us in on. For example, today on talk radio in Seattle, host John Carlson, unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor and a very bright, honest guy, reported that FBI was in Seattle this week telling law enforcement that Seattle is considered an easy target by terrorists because police and emergency organizations are understaffed. Seattle is 13th largest US metropolis with 5th worst police force. They're so PC here, every possible alien is protected and cops die on the beat for fear of lifting a gun to save their lives.

I watched local network news tonight and there is NO REPORT on this --no mention of FBI being in town conducting meetings with police chief, etc., no mention of Seattle being considered easy target by terrorists.

And just last week, random inspection of automobiles waiting for ferries was suspended because people had complained of being inconvenienced. God forbid they should be inconvenienced. I take one of those ferries, and so would have Ahmed Ressam, would-be millenium bomber, had he not been stopped by some young low-level INS guy at border when he drove off ferry from Canada late on a December night, 1999. When I mention to my neighbors that he almost drove past our doors, they literally turn away from me. They don't want to hear it. The liberal fog pervades and it's dangerous as hell.

So please take warnings seriously. Horrible things may happen. Live your life, enjoy yourself, take precautions. And don't downplay threats. And ping your San Francisco Freeper friends on this one. They should read this thread.

Agree that Nyquist is hyperventilating here. HOWEVER: Just for intellectual exercise- WHAT IF Al-Quaida lit off several suit-case nukes on the 4th of July? Say, klling 10 million Americans. I think it's time to start asking ourselves the question: WHAT SHOULD WE DO THEN? Does Bush have a plan for retaliation in place? I wonder. Do we nuke all the Arab capitals? Do we wipe the middle-east from the face of the earth? We would have done that to the USSR. Would we even have the balls to deport legal immigrants from terrorist nations? What do you guys and gals think BUsh should/would do on that black 5th of July?

I would invite all American men who are heathly, strong, and patriotic in joining me in beating the snot out of any arabs taking video of Naval vessels (and anything else for that matter) with stop watches. It is at least our duty to question them aggressively and perhaps even invite them and their camera to take a swim.

Just where in the flying foxtrot do they get the right to aggressively take pictures of strategic locations and act strangely without being questioned? Is this some Allah given right?

I've heard this same story too many times for this not to be happening-group of Middle Easterners taking pictures of city/industrial site and no one questioning them. Is as if the police/investigative personnel are afraid due to PC brainwashing to put their careers on the line to do their duty.

Is there no way a police officer can ask them what they are doing, who they are and determine if they are here legally?

This is surreal, but we are at war and we cannot or will not secure our country.

If the Muslim plan is a long war of attrition, then there's no point in using your biggest and best first. You'd use it at a time to cause the most political, economic and military damage possible. Or you'd wait until you had more than one stick....

Those are certainly good points. I agree this war will be brought to America as a war of attrition. That being the case using your big stick at the right time is critical to those wanting to destroy America. Which brings me back to my main point, which was the forth of July is far to early in a war of attrition and all the terror alert are being generated by Islamic propaganda machines.

Of course they could believe that America resolve is so weak that a large scale terror attack coupled with poor economic would be enough to accomplish their goals. They may be skilled at terrorism but their understanding of America seem to based on Hollywood movies.

So please take warnings seriously. Horrible things may happen. Live your life, enjoy yourself, take precautions. And don't downplay threats.

Great post and excellent advice. The feds are obviously preparing for something. Why, just before the 4th of July week have they begun distributing iodide pills, stockpiling gas masks in DC, resuming military flyovers, and, breaking tonight on ABC news - they are discussing elevating the threat level color code for next week?

Beer is good. Very, very good. But seriously...

I still haven't fathomed where this alleged "al-qaeda" is getting such sophisticated weaponry to wreak havoc on American soil... Is there any existing intelligence to verify that "al-qaeda" actually has a nuclear/biological/chemical (NBC) weapons capability to such an extent that they can freely introduce it into American cities? These kinds of weapons take lots of training and practice to use and deploy - which testing activity should have long since been detected by our intelligence services.

I would like to see evidence of "al-qaeda" (or whoever these guys are...) actually having deployed any of these weapons of mass destruction, if only in a practice test, in some other venue. If they really have these weapons, wouldn't they have already tried them either in a) practice runs out in the middle of God (oops, Allah)-knows-where or, b) against, say, Israel or Moscow (i.e. as in revenge terrorism for Chechnya, etc...) Any sort of sophisticated "terrorist" attack that revolves around weapons of mass destruction is invariably going to raise some troubling questions. I don't see enough evidence that "al-qaeda" has this capability. More "crude" stuff, like hijacked planes and the like, yes, but not WMD.

. "Several" could mean two in Manhattan, two in L.A., two in Chicago, two in Seattle, and God knows how many other targets. Several means SEVERAL.

Exactly. And you need well BEYOND "several," as you just did in your scenario. You'd need several DOZEN, not several.

With the types of construction used in the US, you'd need dozens of suitcase nukes to destroy most of the urban core of a city such as New York or Chicago. Modern buildings need a LOT of blast and thermal effects to get knocked down--each tower of the World Trade Center took the equivalent of a contact one-kiloton nuclear blast and still stood for almost an hour.

Beyond a few city blocks, most of the damage would be broken windows--the buildings immediately around the blast hypocenter would absorb most of the energy.

Husband is captain of boats in SF bay. Called home to tell this story.

Two ME women came onboard for a bay cruise, one had an expensive telephoto lensed camera but did not know how to use it. Asked how to use machine which dispenses disposable cameras. Told 'just insert your credit card', didn't want to use credit card she replied. She purchased film at the souvenir stand. Deckhand later sees one woman without the other and conversationally asked, 'where's your friend'? Reply - "I don't know".

Deckhand is now curious and looks for her. Finds her on her back (yes, you read that correctly)taking pictures inside the boat. While all other tourists were looking at the touristy things, these two were not.

This incident took place about a week ago and was reported to the FBI and the Coast Guard. I know that Coast Guard did some follow up. The souvenir pictures that are taken of the boarding passengers (in hopes that they will purchase same) were also turned over.

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