I've been following along on this thread I initiated... interesting comments... your comment just made it seem appropriate to post this image of a recent (August 10, 1972) real NEAR miss:
The picture is of an asteroid actually "skipping" off the atmosphere I assume? Isn't it likely the one this post is about would have also "skipped" away, as opposed to a steep entry angle to impact? Do you know the angle of approach of the one in question?