Posted on 05/16/2002 2:47:00 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
I read an earlier posting today that discussed the "Bolivarian Circles." I didn't realize that they had been in place since Chavez' first coup attempt (93?). Obviously, they weren't as powerful as they are now, but it's interesting that the Chavez infrastructure had been put in place some time ago.
I hope, if there are any plans to - er, "replace" - Chavez with another round of elections, the planners are more organized than last time and have a clear and pre-determined objective.
As for Chavez' going to Madrid with 40 pieces of luggage, this may be meaningless. Dictators never travel light.
HAHAHAHA
No, I guess I can't keep a straight face and think BushCo
believes in democracy. Who could??
I don't put a lot of faith in Stratfor, but it seems likely to me that people who are talking about a coup ane not really intending to do one. People who talk about coups don't do them.
If there is a new coup attempt they will kill not only have to kill Chavez but his main surpporters in the Military and civilian sectors of governmeent. The taking and killing of dozens of people at the same time is very hard to pull off. Many people have to know about it and it is difficult not to be discovered.
An effective method to destablize a goverment is to make them think that a coup is coming any minute. What you try to do is make a Chavez and his loyal Generals think their subordinates are against him. If you can get a couple of Generals to start killing their own poeple, they soon don't have many loyal people to kill and they have underlings gunning for them. That can get you to 70/30 pretty quickly.
I am not sure that a coup is close. I think an attempt to make the Chavez people doubt all those around them is well underway. Playing that game makes it very dangerous for those in power. They tend to shoot themselfves in the foot out of suspicion and fear.
Coups rarely work in a 50/50 nation. You need 70/30 to succeed. The odds are against Chavez succeeding in a Stalinst type purge. That is what it will take for Chavez to get to a secure position. The object is to convince him to try to do that. The last guy to do one successfuly was MAO. Chavez if he tries it will fail. And if he doesn't try, they will subvert his followers.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.