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The GOP's Immigration Dilemma
The Hill ^ | 5/15/2002 | Dick Morris

Posted on 05/16/2002 12:24:37 PM PDT by hchutch

For its political survival, the Republican Party must court the Hispanic vote. Totally shut out among black voters and badly defeated among Hispanics, the GOP is having a hard time finding enough white voters to overcome the deficit. With blacks and Hispanics casting one vote in four, a Republican must win two-thirds of the white vote to have a shot at 51 percent in the average election.

And the situation will only get worse for the Republican Party. The Hispanic population, which swelled from 7 percent to 12 percent of the U.S. population in the past 10 years, is forecast to grow to 18 percent by the end of the decade. If they continue to vote Democrat, the GOP will run out of white people — and face death as a political party.

Only by taking the bold and dramatic step of providing amnesty to illegal Mexican immigrants can the GOP, at a stroke, become competitive among Hispanic voters. This legislation, the equivalent for Hispanics of the 1964 Civil Rights Act for blacks, holds the potential to reposition an entire slice of the electorate and move Hispanics to the Republican Party.

But, at the same time, the Republican Party needs to hang on to its base of angry white men who largely oppose immigration — and illegal immigration most of all. They are the base that insisted on English-only initiatives in the 1980s and 1990s, battled to cutoff aid to illegal aliens, and demanded a halt to bilingual education.

How are Republicans to reach out to Hispanics while appeasing their truculent base?

President Bush has already taken the lead in pulling the Republican Party back from the issue precipices on which it was dancing. By stopping Republicans from opposing bilingual education or affirmative action, and by demoting English-only initiatives to the bottom of the party’s agenda, he has moved mightily to strengthen GOP outreach to Hispanics.

But it is his amnesty proposal for illegal Mexican immigrants that holds the real hope for his party to avert demographic extinction.

The key to resolving the Republican dilemma of having to choose between outreach to Hispanics and alienating its Anglo political base is to condition amnesty with good citizenship requirements.

Republicans should offer conditional amnesty to Mexican illegal immigrants. Here’s the deal: If you want to stay in the United States, you must enroll in a good-citizen program. The immigrant has to agree to become functionally literate in English within two years, work for six of the next eight quarters and pay taxes to FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act) for each of these quarters — no off-the-books work — and avoid arrest for 24 months.

At the end of the two-year period, those who meet the requirements would become citizens in good standing, eligible to vote and participate in civic life. Those who refuse to enroll or who fail the meet the requirements would face deportation. If the program works, it can be expanded to other categories of illegal immigrants.

Polling shows that most voters, even among the GOP base, are willing to forgive the illegality of their arrival if these Mexican immigrants show a willingness to earn their legal status in America. The compromise has the contractual opportunity/responsibility formula that sold so many of Clinton’s programs and that lies at the core of the highly successful welfare reform program. By asking something in return for giving something, the resulting transaction acquires a moral impetus that it sorely needs to win national support.

At the same time as the Republicans offer the olive branch to illegal Hispanic immigrants, they must use this year’s review of immigration statutes to close down immigration from nations that sponsor or harbor terrorists — including even such so-called allies as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. By closing one spigot as they open the other, Republicans can master the political hat trick of reaching out to Hispanics while appeasing their political base.

Otherwise, the GOP will go the way of the Liberal Party in Great Britain, to the political grave.


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: donutwatch; gop; immigrantlist; immigration
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To: hchutch
Bush does not deserve the right to be called a Republican any longer.
161 posted on 05/16/2002 5:23:05 PM PDT by RickyJ
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To: hchutch
I was all set to vote Constitution Party in the last election. But, changed my mind a day or two before the election. The fear tactics of some Rhino's about picking the lesser of two evils, is NOT what changed my mind.

What changed my mind, and in the end was most fortuitous, was WHO WOULD I WANT IN THE WHITE HOUSE IN THE EVENT OF A MAJOR CATASTROPHY OR WAR? That and that alone was my reason for voting for Bush. Even though I suspect Desert Storm may have had something to do with protecting Bush the younger's oil interests off the coast of Bahrain. And his daddy had oil interests off Cuba during the Bay of Pigs. But, the choices were few unfortuantely, so I picked Bush. The numbers were too close in my state.

Doing as you wish, to keep voting for the leser of evils is what has gotten us into this desperate position and at the same time, held 3rd parties back. We are turning into a democratic/socialist state right before our eyes, and frankly I'm not sure the process can be reversed anymore.

162 posted on 05/16/2002 5:29:15 PM PDT by ET(end tyranny)
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To: hchutch
STATEMENT: "The GOP's Immigration Dilemma."

RESPONSE: There is no dilemma. The leadership of the GOP has sold America down the river. For what? Being elected so that they can engage in eating, drinking/drugs, copulating with boys and/or girls,evacuation, and snoring-all at our expense.

163 posted on 05/16/2002 5:30:30 PM PDT by HENRYADAMS
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To: hchutch
Well, this is one FREEPER with a Hispanic surname that says we should close the door.

The intermarriage rate of Hispanics is incredibly high and I think that this is much less of a problem than you think. Stop illegal immigration and let a generation pass, and a Spanish surname will be commonplace and the voting patterns of those with a Spanish surname will not be so skewed toward the Democrats.

tom h (Hernandez)

164 posted on 05/16/2002 5:34:53 PM PDT by tom h
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To: hchutch
I'm totally opposed to granting an amnesty to Mexican illegal aliens. But if an amnesty was to be considered,
there should be a stipulation that, because of the fact that we would be legalizing such a large number of
Mexican nationals in one fell swoop, the U.S. would cut off all legal immigration from Mexico for at least the
next 10 years.
165 posted on 05/16/2002 5:38:45 PM PDT by usadave
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To: FreedomFriend
Hello FF...I agree with you. It's the LAW, no to illegal immigrants from any where! Control the borders by whatever is neccessary, clean up the illegals inside this country...that is the # 1 mandate for this Government and nothing less will suffice for we the citizens, the ones who pay the bills!!!
166 posted on 05/16/2002 5:39:13 PM PDT by iopscusa
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To: hchutch
LOL, your outta your mind. What? We are to keep the Republican Party afloat for what purpose? For us to take a trip to the grave yard as a nation with a European base of civil law?

Forget about it. We need a Republican President with the guts to declare Marshall Law, stop immigration, grab illegals by the collar and hurl them from the country, close our borders and put the military on them to shoot to kill, and turn back what both they and the democrats have done to our nation. Other than that to hades with all of them.

I don't buy into this slow process of disappearing white candidates over the decades. The inability to find employment unless you are Mexican. Gutless Republicans along with anti-American Democrats are responsible for this mess, both hoping it won't effect their voter base until they have had their lives and are in the grave. Let the next generations fight to get it back.

I won't vote for a candidate that doesn't address the problem, that means I vote for no one but Tancredo. I'm all for getting up out of my comfy chair and going to war for my kids future, so no, I won't help the Republican Party hang on, I'm all for pushing this mess to a head while I can still fight. Some things are just worth fighting and dying for. Our own politicans won't uphold the Constitution because it has no teeth in it, you think Mexicans are going to uphold it when they are in charge? ROFL, naw, I won't help Bush put us on that "fast track".

167 posted on 05/16/2002 5:41:03 PM PDT by MissAmericanPie
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To: hchutch
For its political survival, the Republican Party must court the Hispanic vote. Totally shut out among black voters and badly defeated among Hispanics, the GOP is having a hard time finding enough white voters to overcome the deficit.

This is completely and utterly backwards! Alienating whites by pandering to Hispanics and blacks is what is destroying the Republican Party.

Whites still make up about 72% population. If you alienate 1% of the white vote by pandering to Hispanics, you need to gain 6% of the Hispanics to break even.

About half of the white population does not vote. Many because they are smart enough to see there is no difference between the Republicrats and the Demapublicans - both parties despise middle class and lower class whites. If a party truly represented the interest of "non-rich" whites, it would bring new voters into the polls.

168 posted on 05/16/2002 5:41:07 PM PDT by Arleigh
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To: ET(end tyranny)
But what good would a third-party do, except put someone we completely oppose in office? The folks who bolted to Perot helped put Bill Clinton in office. Teddy Roosevelt's bolt in 1912 gave the country Woodrow Wilson.

Sorry, but those who think a third party can magically make things all better need a political reality check. I can't help it if they cannot take it.

169 posted on 05/16/2002 5:41:34 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: Scratch shooter
The way things are going, the Hispanics will be the majority in America in 30-40 years. They will then take ALL the spoils of government. By allowing unlimited, massive immigration, both parties will become extinct. The country will be ruled by some Hispanic party whose primary goal will be to extract all wealth from non-Hispanic people, and then, when they are bled dry, they will be forced out.

So true.

170 posted on 05/16/2002 5:43:00 PM PDT by Arleigh
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To: hchutch
The key to resolving the dilemma is to increase the limit for legal immigrants and crack down and deport illegal immigrants in this country. What the GOP should do is make is clear we welcome people who want to come lawfully to this country to make it stronger and more prosperous. By the same token the GOP should make it also clear there will be NO amnesty for illegal aliens, no government loans, grants, or services for those who have no right to be in this country in the first place and if you're here illegally and are caught, upon deportation its a lifetime ban on reentering the United States. Call it a friendly welcome policy for legal immigration coupled with a one strike and you're out policy for illegal aliens. The GOP has the answer to its dilemma. The question is whether its willing to do the commonsensical approach outlined here or keep pandering to lawbreakers. Whether the GOP has a chance to keep and even expand its majority in the future depends on how it responds to Americans on this issue.
171 posted on 05/16/2002 5:43:01 PM PDT by goldstategop
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To: Poohbah
40% of Hispanics voted for 187.
172 posted on 05/16/2002 5:44:39 PM PDT by B Knotts
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To: usadave
Let me repeat that again:

40% of Hispanics voted FOR 187.

173 posted on 05/16/2002 5:45:31 PM PDT by B Knotts
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To: hchutch
I'm not saying a 3rd party can magically make it go away. But doing nothing but more of the same voting for the lesser of evils is NOT making it go away either! Meanwhile we are not gaining any ground for certain 3rd parties that hold concervative values. If we continue at the pace we are on, we will be left with one party. The socialist party under the name of democrat.
174 posted on 05/16/2002 5:46:42 PM PDT by ET(end tyranny)
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To: goldstategop
I can see your point, but at the same time, kicking out 10-15 million illegals is going to be a logistical nightmare. Plus, there's all the crap CNN will pull. I'd like to see some of the folks who want such a crackdown tell me CNN and the major networks wouldn't make it look one step removed from a concentration camp.

Plus, say what you will about his lifestyle, but Dick Morris's track record speaks volumes as well.

175 posted on 05/16/2002 5:47:00 PM PDT by hchutch
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To: goldstategop
Enforcing the law need not be seen as anti-Hispanic. But it would take some people who are at least competent at playing politics to accomplish. Right now, the people running the show for the G.O.P. are laughably inept.
176 posted on 05/16/2002 5:47:33 PM PDT by B Knotts
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To: hchutch
But what good would a third-party do, except put someone we completely oppose in office?

There are worse things than having a Democrat in the White House - like watching the Republican Party morph into a lame version of the Democratic Party!

Punishing Republicrats in `04 makes sense if they get the message that they have stabbed their core constituency - "non-rich" whites - in the back, and they won't win another election until they apologize.

177 posted on 05/16/2002 5:47:40 PM PDT by Arleigh
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To: hchutch; Brownie74
When people start to leave this train wreck, you politically savvy moderates can just vote yourselves more money.
178 posted on 05/16/2002 5:50:24 PM PDT by SteamshipTime
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To: hchutch
The problem with 187 was allowing the race-pimping leftists to revise history unchallenged. But that's the California G.O.P. for you.

40% of Hispanics voted FOR 187.

179 posted on 05/16/2002 5:52:00 PM PDT by B Knotts
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To: ET(end tyranny)
Again, there's a problem with a major round-up. A person would have to be BLIND to miss how the networks treated the 9/11 thing. Any such round-up would be a media feeding frenzy, and it would make the backlash caused by Prop 187 look like a tempest in a teapot.

Dick Morris's reputation and ability as a pollster speaks for itself. This guy bailed Clinton out after the 1994 election. I find his personal lifestyle (Cheating on his wife with a hooker) to be offensive, but I'd be foolish to disregard his comments on political matters.

The political equivalent of Pickett's Charge is NOT what I have in mind.

180 posted on 05/16/2002 5:52:01 PM PDT by hchutch
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