Posted on 04/28/2002 1:55:26 PM PDT by Liz
Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation
The statewide Field Poll of only 546 self-described registered and likely voters (not proven likely voters) that is in newspapers today shows a very distorted picture of the election for Governor. While it clearly highlights that Governor Davis is in big trouble, the flawed methodology of the Field Poll shows much of the anti-Davis vote in the undecided category. Do not be distracted by the ballot test comparing Gray Davis and Bill Simon - the real news in this poll is that Gray Davis continues to languish well below 50%, a danger sign for incumbents. In fact, even according to Field, 57% of voters - who all have heard of Gray Davis - will not vote for his re-election.
-- "Davis backers viewed the new information with caution, perhaps reflecting internal Democratic polls that show the race much closer than the Field Poll suggests." (San Jose Mercury News)
-- "The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously. " (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg declared earlier in the month on CNN:
-- "I don't want to argue on whether or not Gray Davis has done a good job or a bad job. I just want to look at the numbers. And the numbers say he has done a terrible job. His numbers stink. This is a guy with awful reelect numbers, also job approval. And he's losing to a guy who has enough never run for office before on a ballot test."
[Note that Rothenberg is aware of and believes the private polls showing Simon ahead]
The Field Poll's different sampling techniques yield results that stand in stark contrast to every other poll since the March 5 primary. There have been at least five professional polls taken privately since the primary election -- which show Davis in the high 30's/low 40's and have Bill Simon winning in each instance.
-- The Field Poll is different from professional campaign polls because Field calls all California residents randomly and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they are likely to vote. This samples too large a group of voters - including many voters who will never vote and have not been paying attention to the race. Most professional polls exclude these unlikely voters until they express some greater sentiment for voting. In addition, casual voters will tend to forget who the challenger is and default to undecided against an incumbent they know and dislike.
The poll further confirms suspicions that career politician and incumbent Governor Gray Davis, whose Administration has been rocked by energy, education and budget failures, continues to see his re-election prospects rejected by Californians. Governors who poll less than 50% in polls after the primary almost always lose. Despite the methodological bias in the Field Poll, it shows that we are in an excellent position to overtake Davis once our advertising campaign begins.
Davis tax attacks fail: By a margin of 51% to 44%, Californians say Simon doesn't need to make his tax returns public. 60% said Simon's refusal would have no effect on the way they vote, and more believe Simon when he says he paid substantial taxes.
Davis wedge issue attacks fail: Despite Davis' efforts to change the subject away from his failed leadership and toward divisive wedge issues, Davis suffers equally low re-election scores among both men and women. 57% percent of both sexes refuse to vote for Davis for re-election.
Every publicly released poll of likely voters shows Bill Simon leading the incumbent Governor.
-- The political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), revealed Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41% among registered voters. These results were later confirmed in an April survey by another independent poll conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research, showing Davis attracting the support of less than 38% of voters; Simon garnered the support of 44% in the poll.
-- Even organizations that traditionally favor Democrats are finding that Simon is leading. A poll of voters making the rounds in Sacramento in recent days commissioned by a large labor organization that has endorsed Governor Davis shows Simon leading Davis 41%-37%.
An incumbent posting a ballot score below 50% is considered highly vulnerable. Here are the last four public polls showing Davis in big trouble:
Public Opinion Strategies: 41% Probolsky and Associates: 38% Labor Union: 37% Field Poll: 43%
You are absolutely right. Turn-out IS everything. That's why we have to work harder and smarter than the Democrats. Our people hate Davis more than their people LIKE him. Remember that.
Simon is an excellent candidate with the right ideas (conservative ones!)
Go Simon! Dump Davis!
Not at all, it has been cold, and the Sun was very absent for several days till today!
Am I wearing out your receiver with my pinging ?
I really have not been on for a while (computer giving me trouble ) but got all agitated when I read about this poll!
Among those with a high school education or less the race is tied, but with each step up on the education ladder Davis' preference margin over Simon grows.
This blows my mind! Why??
I have MS plus and I sure don't think Davis is worth anything!
Of course my studies were in the hard sciences which require the use of deductive logic to establish cause and effect!
I have a Bachelors in Science, a Masters in Engineering and an MBA. My wife, a committed Democrat has a Bachlor of Arts and a Masters in Education. Just remember your days on campus, there were a lot more liberal arts majors than science majors.
I found that statement, just plane sad that the more "eduction/time in school," the more folks want to vote for Davis...ugh
But then again, the extremely small sample and lack of targeting authentically likely voters is likely to have something to do with this. Remember, Republicans are energized over this election but Democrats are apathetic at best. I think this gives Simon a much better chance than that poll implies.
D
We have to help get the word out that Simon wants to raise the homeowner's exemption from $7,000 to either $25,000 or $60,000. Does anyone know which it is?
Homeowners are smart enough to manage their money carefully. Once homeowners see how much they will save with a higher, up-to-date exemption, they might be more convinced to support Simon.
Of course, Simon needs to advertise himself more, too.
Numbers which were undoubtedly affected by the bogus premature Florida call for Gore. Bush/Cheney were consistently within 5-6 points of Go/Lie leading up to the election. Which explains why Bush/Cheney spent so much time there (which unfortunately almost cost them the election when the drunk driving report gave almost all the swing states to Gore.)
Simon's got a very real shot at winning this thing.
Yes, very powerful statements on your part. These statements would be effective if the polls didn't show the exact opposite. Simon leads in 4 of 5 polls. And this poll shows voters on Simon's side of the tax debate. Other than that, you're right on the mark. [yawn]
Think so, gc?
For your sake, I hope this all turns out you're way.
I won't eeeeeeven bring up the political track record of your fellow Californians over the past...say, 10 years, either.
That wouldn't be Hoyle to the Hopesters, huh. {g}
But lookit: in the advent the *unthinkable* were to happen?
That might be an omen.
One contrued by some as the shrill voice of a fat lady singing loud-'n-clear.
~By some.
...eh?
I thought that the Democratic party had a nice run through of their vote rigging procedures recently in the San Francisco election. Thing were so obviously mismanaged that the democrats had to publicly apologize for bad security & procedures(Demo-speak for not hiding the truth deeply enough). It was clear that ballots and ballot boxes stuffed with votes (favoring one side or the other) could appear and disappear at the will of the democratic party leadership.
DUMP Davis!
There was a feeble attempt a few years back to verify voter registration at the polls by showing a valid ID, but the illegal-immigrant activists screamed "racism" and that was the end of that.
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