Posted on 04/28/2002 1:55:26 PM PDT by Liz
Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation
The statewide Field Poll of only 546 self-described registered and likely voters (not proven likely voters) that is in newspapers today shows a very distorted picture of the election for Governor. While it clearly highlights that Governor Davis is in big trouble, the flawed methodology of the Field Poll shows much of the anti-Davis vote in the undecided category. Do not be distracted by the ballot test comparing Gray Davis and Bill Simon - the real news in this poll is that Gray Davis continues to languish well below 50%, a danger sign for incumbents. In fact, even according to Field, 57% of voters - who all have heard of Gray Davis - will not vote for his re-election.
-- "Davis backers viewed the new information with caution, perhaps reflecting internal Democratic polls that show the race much closer than the Field Poll suggests." (San Jose Mercury News)
-- "The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously. " (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg declared earlier in the month on CNN:
-- "I don't want to argue on whether or not Gray Davis has done a good job or a bad job. I just want to look at the numbers. And the numbers say he has done a terrible job. His numbers stink. This is a guy with awful reelect numbers, also job approval. And he's losing to a guy who has enough never run for office before on a ballot test."
[Note that Rothenberg is aware of and believes the private polls showing Simon ahead]
The Field Poll's different sampling techniques yield results that stand in stark contrast to every other poll since the March 5 primary. There have been at least five professional polls taken privately since the primary election -- which show Davis in the high 30's/low 40's and have Bill Simon winning in each instance.
-- The Field Poll is different from professional campaign polls because Field calls all California residents randomly and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they are likely to vote. This samples too large a group of voters - including many voters who will never vote and have not been paying attention to the race. Most professional polls exclude these unlikely voters until they express some greater sentiment for voting. In addition, casual voters will tend to forget who the challenger is and default to undecided against an incumbent they know and dislike.
The poll further confirms suspicions that career politician and incumbent Governor Gray Davis, whose Administration has been rocked by energy, education and budget failures, continues to see his re-election prospects rejected by Californians. Governors who poll less than 50% in polls after the primary almost always lose. Despite the methodological bias in the Field Poll, it shows that we are in an excellent position to overtake Davis once our advertising campaign begins.
Davis tax attacks fail: By a margin of 51% to 44%, Californians say Simon doesn't need to make his tax returns public. 60% said Simon's refusal would have no effect on the way they vote, and more believe Simon when he says he paid substantial taxes.
Davis wedge issue attacks fail: Despite Davis' efforts to change the subject away from his failed leadership and toward divisive wedge issues, Davis suffers equally low re-election scores among both men and women. 57% percent of both sexes refuse to vote for Davis for re-election.
Every publicly released poll of likely voters shows Bill Simon leading the incumbent Governor.
-- The political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), revealed Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41% among registered voters. These results were later confirmed in an April survey by another independent poll conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research, showing Davis attracting the support of less than 38% of voters; Simon garnered the support of 44% in the poll.
-- Even organizations that traditionally favor Democrats are finding that Simon is leading. A poll of voters making the rounds in Sacramento in recent days commissioned by a large labor organization that has endorsed Governor Davis shows Simon leading Davis 41%-37%.
An incumbent posting a ballot score below 50% is considered highly vulnerable. Here are the last four public polls showing Davis in big trouble:
Public Opinion Strategies: 41% Probolsky and Associates: 38% Labor Union: 37% Field Poll: 43%
Simon voters better line up to throw themselves into the fight and be ready to get real down and dirty..
Simon is very astute. He will remain above the fray. All of his supporters will have to do the heavy lifting.
"What more need we hear! Away with him!"
Where do you get that? I see Simon leading in every poll cited in the article and Davis below 50 percent, sometimes WELL below.
Are their any Senatorial elections or major propositions on the ballot that will bring out voters who while they are in the voting both will vote against Davis?
That goes without saying.
A winning strategy for Davis could be to frighten the Dem's base (not exactly difficult), i.e. blacks, Hispanics, union members, quite a few women (soccer moms etc.), with extreme negative advertising. This would pump up the turnout among their base while turning off the middle of the road voters causing them to not bother voting. It's known that negative campaigns drive down turnout, mainly among middle of the roaders who never can seem to figure out what they believe. Alot of these middle of the roaders probably want to get rid of Davis, but are also easily frightened like the Dem base.
Davis wants a Republican base versus Democratic base election with everyone else on the sidelines. In California, that spells victory for the Dems if their base turns out.
The Field poll numbers are basically showing the Dem and Republican bases, and everyone else is in the undecided category. Most of those undecideds are anti-Davis. All Davis needs to do is make them not show up election day.
Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation
Very good news!
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No senate races this year. Just the usual House of Representatives elections and the state races.
The Racial Privacy Initiative (proposition offered by Ward Connerly of American Civil Rights Coalition to stop classification by race) will probably appear in November. This should energize both the conservative base and the liberal "gimme more government handouts because my skin is colored" base.
CA voters rejected affirmative action (prop 209) in the past, so they may be more likely to vote for racial privacy, too, and against Davis.
There will probably be another "clean water" bond, like there is every election, which will saddle us with more costs but won't improve the water (so that they can get another bond issued at the next election).
There will also be a housing trust fund proposition and an after-school program grant. These other propositions probably aren't particularly interesting.
Yes. That's it. Exactly. Look for some last minute tabloid-esque sleaze to surface about Simon being a child molestor and/or embezzeler and/or rapist and/or Nazi camp guard.
And then watch Gray Davis disavow any knowledge of this shameful underhanded tactic and why can't we just campaign on the issues.
Just watch. It's coming. Simon will be branded the devil in hell before this is over, and the vitriol will be especially destructive the more desperate Governor Dufus gets.
Click here for poll homepage and then click on the poll
Davis leads Simon among both sexes and across all age groups. Davis is preferred over Simon by nearly a three-to-one margin among renters (52% to 18%), while the Governor's lead among homeowners is much narrower (39% to 34%).
Among those with a high school education or less the race is tied, but with each step up on the education ladder Davis' preference margin over Simon grows.
A little more than half of the likely electorate (53%) believes the direction of the state is on the wrong track. Among this group Simon holds a sizeable 16-point lead over Davis (41% to 25%). However, among the 41% of voters who feel the state is moving in the right direction, Davis holds a greater than four-to-one advantage over Simon (63% to 14%).
Los Angeles County Region: 52% Davis; 24% Simon; and 25% Other/Undecided.
So to beat Davis, Simon will need to rebuild support in the LA County area after he smashed his Republican Primary opponent and former LA mayor. He will also need to increase his appeal to renters, the 'highly educated'(I find this hard to believe, no I do believe it an years of school does not equal wisdom), and those who feel things are just fine.
That probably means that Simon needs to in both an intellectual and gut level feeling to those who haven't yet participated in the American dream of owning their own homes that things are not going well in California and that they (the voter) is worse off today than he was when Davis took office. Specifically, Simon will need to convince folks that things have gone down hill and Davis will take them even farther downhill economically.
While that seem pretty obvious (i.e. Davis has done a bad job) to me. It obviously hasn't been explained to the public or those "with higher educations." Simon is going to have a difficult education job, unless Davis and the Legislature show the voters how bad things are during a budget battle this summer. That is probably Simon's major hope along with voter apathy among traditional democrats.
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