Posted on 04/28/2002 1:55:26 PM PDT by Liz
Simon voters better line up to throw themselves into the fight and be ready to get real down and dirty..
Simon is very astute. He will remain above the fray. All of his supporters will have to do the heavy lifting.
"What more need we hear! Away with him!"
Where do you get that? I see Simon leading in every poll cited in the article and Davis below 50 percent, sometimes WELL below.
Are their any Senatorial elections or major propositions on the ballot that will bring out voters who while they are in the voting both will vote against Davis?
That goes without saying.
A winning strategy for Davis could be to frighten the Dem's base (not exactly difficult), i.e. blacks, Hispanics, union members, quite a few women (soccer moms etc.), with extreme negative advertising. This would pump up the turnout among their base while turning off the middle of the road voters causing them to not bother voting. It's known that negative campaigns drive down turnout, mainly among middle of the roaders who never can seem to figure out what they believe. Alot of these middle of the roaders probably want to get rid of Davis, but are also easily frightened like the Dem base.
Davis wants a Republican base versus Democratic base election with everyone else on the sidelines. In California, that spells victory for the Dems if their base turns out.
The Field poll numbers are basically showing the Dem and Republican bases, and everyone else is in the undecided category. Most of those undecideds are anti-Davis. All Davis needs to do is make them not show up election day.
Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation
Very good news!
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No senate races this year. Just the usual House of Representatives elections and the state races.
The Racial Privacy Initiative (proposition offered by Ward Connerly of American Civil Rights Coalition to stop classification by race) will probably appear in November. This should energize both the conservative base and the liberal "gimme more government handouts because my skin is colored" base.
CA voters rejected affirmative action (prop 209) in the past, so they may be more likely to vote for racial privacy, too, and against Davis.
There will probably be another "clean water" bond, like there is every election, which will saddle us with more costs but won't improve the water (so that they can get another bond issued at the next election).
There will also be a housing trust fund proposition and an after-school program grant. These other propositions probably aren't particularly interesting.
Yes. That's it. Exactly. Look for some last minute tabloid-esque sleaze to surface about Simon being a child molestor and/or embezzeler and/or rapist and/or Nazi camp guard.
And then watch Gray Davis disavow any knowledge of this shameful underhanded tactic and why can't we just campaign on the issues.
Just watch. It's coming. Simon will be branded the devil in hell before this is over, and the vitriol will be especially destructive the more desperate Governor Dufus gets.
Click here for poll homepage and then click on the poll
Davis leads Simon among both sexes and across all age groups. Davis is preferred over Simon by nearly a three-to-one margin among renters (52% to 18%), while the Governor's lead among homeowners is much narrower (39% to 34%).
Among those with a high school education or less the race is tied, but with each step up on the education ladder Davis' preference margin over Simon grows.
A little more than half of the likely electorate (53%) believes the direction of the state is on the wrong track. Among this group Simon holds a sizeable 16-point lead over Davis (41% to 25%). However, among the 41% of voters who feel the state is moving in the right direction, Davis holds a greater than four-to-one advantage over Simon (63% to 14%).
Los Angeles County Region: 52% Davis; 24% Simon; and 25% Other/Undecided.
So to beat Davis, Simon will need to rebuild support in the LA County area after he smashed his Republican Primary opponent and former LA mayor. He will also need to increase his appeal to renters, the 'highly educated'(I find this hard to believe, no I do believe it an years of school does not equal wisdom), and those who feel things are just fine.
That probably means that Simon needs to in both an intellectual and gut level feeling to those who haven't yet participated in the American dream of owning their own homes that things are not going well in California and that they (the voter) is worse off today than he was when Davis took office. Specifically, Simon will need to convince folks that things have gone down hill and Davis will take them even farther downhill economically.
While that seem pretty obvious (i.e. Davis has done a bad job) to me. It obviously hasn't been explained to the public or those "with higher educations." Simon is going to have a difficult education job, unless Davis and the Legislature show the voters how bad things are during a budget battle this summer. That is probably Simon's major hope along with voter apathy among traditional democrats.
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