Posted on 04/24/2002 6:46:46 PM PDT by Pokey78
HOUSTON, April 24 — Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is expected to tell President Bush in stark terms at their meeting on Thursday that the strategic relationship between their two countries will be threatened if Mr. Bush does not moderate his support for Israel's military policies, a person familiar with the Saudi's thinking said today.
In a bleak assessment, he said there was talk within the Saudi royal family and in Arab capitals of using the "oil weapon" against the United States, and demanding that the United States leave strategic military bases in the region.
Such measures, he said, would be a "strategic debacle for the United States."
He also warned of a general drift by Arab leaders toward the radical politics that have been building in the Arab street.
The Saudi message contained undeniable brinkmanship intended to put pressure on Mr. Bush to take a much larger political gamble by imposing a peace settlement on Israelis and Palestinians.
But the Saudi delegation also brought a strong sense of the alarm and crisis that have been heard in Arab capitals.
"It is a mistake to think that our people will not do what is necessary to survive," the person close to the crown prince said, "and if that means we move to the right of bin Laden, so be it; to the left of Qaddafi, so be it; or fly to Baghdad and embrace Saddam like a brother, so be it. It's damned lonely in our part of the world, and we can no longer defend our relationship to our people."
Whatever the possibility of bluster, it is also clear that Abdullah represents not just Saudi Arabia but also the broader voice of the Arab world, symbolized by the peace plan he submitted and that was endorsed at an Arab summit meeting in March.
Those familiar with the prince's "talking points" said he would deliver a blunt message that Mr. Bush is perceived to have endorsed — despite his protests to the contrary — Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's military incursion into the West Bank.
Abdullah believes Mr. Bush has lost credibility by failing to follow through on his demand two weeks ago that Mr. Sharon withdraw Israeli troops from the West Bank and end the sieges of Yasir Arafat's compound in Ramallah and of the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem.
If those events occur and Mr. Bush makes a commitment "to go for peace" by convening an international conference, as his father did after the Persian Gulf war, to press for a final settlement and a Palestinian state, the Saudi view would change dramatically.
But those close to the Saudi delegation said there was no expectation that Mr. Bush is prepared to apply the pressure necessary to force such an outcome.
"The perception in the Middle East, from the far left to the far right, is that America is totally sponsoring Sharon — not Israel's policies but Sharon's policies — and anyone who tells you less is insulting your intelligence," the person familiar with Abdullah's thinking said.
Western analysts see the prince as a blunt Bedouin leader whose initiative is regarded by many Arabs as a gesture worthy of the late Egyptian leader Anwar el-Sadat, who flew to Jerusalem in 1973 to sue for peace with Menachem Begin. Abdullah's offer, now the Arab world's offer, calls for recognition of Israel and "normal relations" in return for a Palestinian state on lands Israel occupied in 1967.
The Saudi assessment was apparently being conveyed through several private channels.
On Tuesday President Bush's father had lunch with the Saudi foreign minister, Saud al-Faisal, and the kingdom's longtime ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Their specific message could not be learned, but in the familial setting, where Barbara Bush was also the hostess for Princess Haifa, Prince Bandar's wife, the strong strategic and personal ties of the Persian Gulf war that characterized Saudi-American relations a decade ago was a message in itself.
Abdullah, in a luncheon today with Vice President Dick Cheney, was to convey the seriousness with which he regards Thursday's meeting with President Bush as a "last chance" for constructive relations with the Arab world.
Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, also flew to Houston to join in last-minute discussions before the summit meeting. A senior official in Washington said Mr. Rumsfeld and General Myers were dispatched to brief the prince personally on the American accomplishments in Afghanistan and in the broader war on terrorism.
"The idea was, if he thought we were strong in Desert Storm, we're 10 times as strong today," one official said. "This was to give him some idea what Afghanistan demonstrated about our capabilities."
United States military commanders in the Persian Gulf region have been building up command centers and equipment depots in Qatar and Kuwait in recent months in anticipation of a possible breach with Riyadh.
Saudi officials assert that American presidents since Richard M. Nixon have been willing to speak more forcefully to Israeli leaders than the current president when American interests were at stake.
"If Bush freed Arafat and cleared Bethlehem, it would be a big victory, show a stiffening of spine," the person close to Abdullah said. "But incremental steps are no longer valid in these circumstances," meaning that Mr. Bush would have to follow up with a major push to fulfill the longstanding expectation of the Palestinians for statehood.
The mood in the Saudi camp was that of gloom and anxiety in private even as Saudi and American officials went ahead with preparations for a warm public encounter with the Bush family.
On Friday, after his meeting with President Bush at his home in Crawford, Abdullah is to take a long train ride to College Station, the central Texas town where the former President Bush will be host at his presidential library. On Saturday, Saudi's Arabia's state oil company is gathering the luminaries of the international energy industry to dine with Abdullah and his party.
But the person close to the prince said that if the summit talks went badly, Abdullah might not complete his stay in Texas. Instead, he might return directly to Riyadh and call for a summit meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference, to report to its 44 leaders, who represent 1.2 billion Muslims.
"He wants to say, `I looked the president of the U.S. in the eye and have to report that I failed,' " this person said. His message to the Arabs will be, "Take the responsibility in your own hands, my conscience is clear, before history, God, religion, country and friends."
The person close to Abdullah pointed out that Saudi Arabia's recent assurances that it would use its surplus oil-producing capacity to blunt the effects of Saddam Hussein's 30-day suspension of Iraqi oil exports could quickly change.
That Saudi pledge "was based on a certain set of assumptions, but if you change the assumptions, all bets are off," he said. "We would no longer say what Saddam said was an empty threat, because there come desperate times when you give the unthinkable a chance."
Abdullah is reported to be bitter over the White House's assertion that the president is taking a balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and he wants to evaluate in person whether Mr. Bush understands how his actions are being perceived in the Arab world.
"This is not a mistake or a policy gaffe," the person close to Abdullah said, referring to Mr. Bush's approach. "He made a strategic, conscious decision to go with Sharon, so your national interest is no longer our national interest; now we don't have joint national interests. What it means is that you go your way and we will go ours, economically, militarily and politically — and the antiterror coalition would collapse in the process."
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In 2000, Saudi Arabia supplied 1,566 thousand barrels per day.
That's approximately 14.1% of our imports and 9.25% of our total consumption.
Not an insignificant amount, especially should other OPEC nation's cooperate.
This is the price we pay for Congress's absolute failure to produce a coherent energy policy over the last 30 years.
Our best opportunity to extract ourselves from this quandry is to build clean-coal and nuclear power plants to increase our electric generating capacity. Construction of electric powered mass-transportation systems in our nation's most densely populated regions and urban areas could then reduce our petroleum consumption and foreign dependence.
NY Times whines for Saudi
Now that's a credible source.
In a bleak assessment, he said there was talk within the Saudi royal family and in Arab capitals of using the "oil weapon" against the United States, and demanding that the United States leave strategic military bases in the region. Such measures, he said, would be a "strategic debacle for the United States."
Lions and Tigers and Bears, Oh No!
PS We are ALREADY leaving our bases in saudi arabia -- could be bad news for them!
He also warned of a general drift by Arab leaders toward the radical politics that have been building in the Arab street.
Who gives a f*ck about the mongrel arab street.
Sounds like they'r getting pretty scared. I say it's time for them to be afraid. Very afraid.
1) CANX the meeting with the Clown Prince.
2) Covertly let Saddam know that Saudi is now available on the free market.
3) Announce to the world that the US will not be bothered with the "internal politics" of the Middle East.
4) 'wave some popcorn and watch the show.
5) Go take Saudi and Iraq. Claim as new "provinces".
6) Give Israel the Green light.
7) 'wave some more of Orville's finest and watch the show.
8) Announce that Islam is nothing more than a terrorist organization and will be prosecuted / exterminated to the fullest extent - where ever it exists.
9) Use every opportunity to point out the DemoRat support of the terrorists - you know, Clintoons kissing AraRats, etc.
Just passing thoughts.
LVM
I think you're on to something. Rumsfeld and Cheney are going to present the steel fist, Bush will then give the velvet glove.
What's it gonna be Abdullah?
"W": "Let's stroll out to my garage"
Abdullah (in the garage): "What's that?"
"W": "Well, that's kind of complicated. But that little thing runs and runs and runs. And there is not any fuel. That little box could power everything around us for 250 miles. And pretty soon it will even power automobiles."
Abdullah: "Uh, no petrol?"
"W": "Yea. Kinda neat, eh? But don't tell anybody about it yet. We have to be careful about how we introduce it to the world. At least those in the world we will allow access to this technology. Israel get access first in your part of the world. ("W" smiles). Hey what's that smell".
Abdullah: "I pooped my pants!"
"W": "Now, what were you saying?"
This story was floated by the Saudis. You can bank on it. It should tell Bush, Cheney, Rice, Powell, and Rummy all they need to know: the Saudis are dealing from a position of weakness. They see us moving out of our bases there, reducing ties to them. Actions, not words. They are making a desperate attempt at intimidation, because they have cast their lot with Saddam. It will not work. Not for the last time has the Arab nation backed the wrong horse.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
Are you for real? I'm wondering if you are some kind of "UPO" (Unidentified Posting Object) cause you seem to have just arrived from either the "Twilight Zone," or the "Outer Limits!
Nothin personal, but that reply seemed to come from so far out of touch with either history or reality that I thought it was one of those "Virtual Replies," at first.
I think that's what ol' Abdullah is worried about. So, he's announced that he is coming here to "demand" things that Bush already wanted (a separate Palestinian state and Israel's troops out of Palestinian territory). When Bush agrees, he will go back to announce in triumph that he has successfully "intimidated" Bush.
He will be a hero in the Arab states, the NYT and Wash Post will lament Bush's "concessions", and there will be a string of posts here talking about what a wimp Bush is. :-)
This is what happens 20 minutes after any WMD attack on the USA.
If he tells W this, he isn't a Crown Prince, he is a Clown Prince! This is the wishful thinking of Mr. Tyler and the NY Times.
I am going back and read it again, to see if thee are any clues.
{smile} exactly!
So then the Chinese VP is in the middle east on his way to America as well - ostensibly to insure that China's supply of oil will not be interrupted due to the war on terrorism. (Since China is pulling the strings.)
Now the Bedouin lapdog of the Arab world is here to promote their continued trip into an alternate reality world where they are in fact important. He is here to issue directives to the President of the US. These directives are supposedly the price for the pleasure of doing business with our enemy.
See where this is heading?? This meeting is designed to fail, and supposedly put the US in a "strategic debacle" immediately prior to the arrival of the Chinese VP. Hmmmmmm........This almost reads like the script of a WWF wrestling match. Who do the ChiComs and ragheads think they're dealing with? Bill Clinton? I hope the President tells them exactly where to place a fistful of sand, right before feeding this POS to some hogs on the ranch.
Apparently, the US does get a large portion of oil on the open market, even if a bunch of it comes from Canada, Russia, Mexico and/or Norway, an Arab embargo would drive up the prices. It would hurt our economy directly and it would hurt the economies of our imported-oil-dependent trading partners in Europe and Japan, which, in turn would hurt our economy. All those grapes shipped up from Chile in the winter, all those cheap products shipped across the Pacific, they'd become more expensive. We'd probably see double digit inflation and wage stagnation and it would really suck.
It seems like bluster on our part to say "go ahead, embargo the oil Abdullah."
One possible intelligent long-term strategy would be to invest in a national program to become independent of foreign sources of energy. Perhaps the President could take a lesson from Kennedy and make it something like the Apollo program. A top national priority with high visibility and real funding and a sense of mission. If it suceeded, it could be a real "up yours" to the Arabs without hurting ourselves in the process.
After all, if it weren't for oil, the middle east would be as relevant as that desert in northern Chile, whatever it is called.
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