Republicans Bracing for Bush Poll Decline

Reuters ^ | April 15, 2002 | Randall Mikkelsen

[Timesink]

Republicans Bracing for Bush Poll Decline
Mon Apr 15, 4:25 PM ET

By Randall Mikkelsen

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush (news - web sites)'s pollster is warning Republicans that Bush's sky-high poll ratings are set to decline, due to Democrats returning to the fold in an election year rather than Middle East turmoil or other issues.

"Over the coming weeks and months the president's numbers will continue to drift downward as the November elections near and, as a result, Democratic partisans return to a normal disapproval pattern," Republican party pollster Matthew Dowd said in a memo to party activists.

The memo was dated last Friday. Dowd said on Monday he sent the memo in an attempt to head off speculation that Bush policies were responsible for a decline he said would be inevitable.

"There's nothing that is a current event that is causing that to happen," Dowd told Reuters.

Bush's troubled engagement in the search to quell Middle East violence has not affected his approval rating, he said.

Bush, who had earlier faced criticisms for keeping his distance from the Middle East peace process, now faces charges that his demands for Israeli and Palestinian steps toward peace are being ignored.

On the Middle East, Dowd said, voters recognize that "this has been going on for years and years and years so they don't see a need for an immediate solution."

Nevertheless, Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts questioned Bush's Middle East policies at a party conference in Florida on Sunday.

Former Vice President Al Gore (news - web sites) and others also attacked Bush on domestic issues including the economy and environment.

Dowd declined to give specific results of the party's polls, but predicted Bush's ratings would stabilize above their levels before Sept. 11.

"Since Democratic partisans account for approximately 40 percent of the electorate, this by itself could return the president's approval numbers into the 60s (percent range)," Dowd said in his memo.

A CNN/USA Today poll by Gallup in early April put Bush's overall approval rating at 76 percent, down from a record of 90 percent in late September and 79 percent in later March but still holding strong compared with past presidential ratings peaks.

In the poll, Bush's handling of the Middle East conflict drew 67 percent support, down 5 percentage points from two weeks earlier.

[Timesink]

Wow, things are going to turn more partisan before November? Say it ain't so!

[steve50]

Better get CFR, Patriot Act, FOIA and a few other messes he's created cleaned up, he might get some numbers back.

[Williams]

"ONE TWO THREE FOUR! WE DON'T WANT YOUR ------- GORE!" It just came to me. From out of the Sixties.

[joesnuffy]

9 out of 10 terrorists agree..the democrats would be better for america

[texlok]

Either that or he'll swing farther left in an effort to get more liberals.

[KC_Conspirator]

Well, I guess all that embarcing of the liberal agenda has not helped at all. Good thinking Karl Rove!

[princess leah]

This isn't worth the time it took to print this...more liberal spin from the Clinton media! Time to put out our own title "Republicans Don't Need Poll Numbers To Tell Americans We are TIred of Obstructionist Democrats"

[poet]

Right you are. Not to mention protecting clinton with that exec order. Do an overview and you will see all of the dem's programs he has signed onto.

[dr_who]

Very probably.

[Digger]

Maybe Carl can increase the budget more than the 22% already imposed. Yeh, he may be looking for the Cynthia McKinney votes. He knows the dumb pubbies will vote for him as long as a (R) is behind it.

[Williams]

Actually, I think it's Bush spin. They figure the numbers have to come down, so they want to stay ahead of the curve.

[poet]

No they would not. Just because some of us disagree with the republicrat bush does not mean we want a leftist in power. I repeat, do an overview and see how many dem's programs he has signed onto. I see no diff between the parties except that one will steal our freedoms on a slower pace.

[AUgrad]

There's nothing that is a current event that is causing that to happen," Dowd told Reuters

What about CFR and the Patriot Act?

[steve50]

I think he's more interested in protecting his father, considering his DEA appointment.

[wardaddy]

His missteps on Israel have weakened the aura of resolve. Non-political voters will pick up on that even if they don't dig deep into all the nuance like we do here. When Bush looks and acts strong as a wartime President should, he can prevail not only abroad but domestically and I think yes ..he can indeed have a coattail effect.

Amnesty and CFR have not helped either with his base.

[Malcolm]

That's much better than voting for a person just because they have an "L" behind their name.....

[Globulous]

Show me a politician who doesn't follow polls....and I'll show you a liar.

[AmishDude]

Shhh!!!! They don't want you in their sandbox. It is amazing coincidence that they all showed up on the thread at the same time, no?

[AUgrad]

I think he's more interested in protecting his father, considering his DEA appointment.

His executive orders on presidential papers support that position as well.