Chavez turmoil a blow to Latin American populism

Even though we don't know the ultimate outcome of the confused political situation in Venezuela, the turmoil may send a message that messianic leaders with confrontational styles generate massive capital flight, growing poverty and civil unrest.

Clearly, the last chapter in the quickly evolving situation in Venezuela has not been written, but there is no country in Latin America that would like to experience the pain and violence roiling that Andean country. If, as many believe, the ousted Hugo Chávez is to blame for the current crisis, it will not help candidates who follow his line.

At a time when critics of free-market policies are ranking high in the polls for this year's elections in Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia and Ecuador, there is a growing feeling in U.S. and Latin American political circles that Chavez's disastrous rule may become an antidote for populist experiments.

''This will definitely have an impact on the upcoming elections in the region,'' former Colombian President Alfonso López Michelsen told me in a telephone interview. ``The most immediate impact will be a return to pragmatism and political discipline, as opposed to easy, quick-fix solutions.''

Granted, Chávez, a former coup plotter who won elections by a landslide in 1998, is much more radical than any of the leading left-of-center candidates currently running for office in Latin America. Unlike most of them, he openly criticized representative democracy, calling it a ''trap'' that allowed oligarchs to steal the region's wealth.

Chávez embraced dictators such as Cuba's Fidel Castro and Iraq's Saddam Hussein, declared himself ''neutral'' about Colombia's Marxist guerrillas and insulted Venezuela's business leaders, journalists, bishops, labor leaders and virtually anybody who didn't support his ''Bolivarian'' revolution.

As time went by, the Chávez government became more authoritarian -- and more corrupt. In his final hours before his ouster Friday, he assumed de facto dictatorial powers, cutting off television signals and allowing his followers to fire on protesters.

But, while they are more moderate than Chávez, many leading populist candidates in Latin America's upcoming elections will find themselves on the defensive in coming months. Their political rivals will most likely point at Venezuela as a textbook case of what happens when political leaders pursue confrontational policies.

Indeed, Chávez's inflammatory rhetoric against the ''oligarchy'' resulted in a dramatic downturn of Venezuela's economy despite record oil prices during his first two years in power.

Domestic and foreign investment came to a standstill, and at least $16 billion left the country over the past two years, much of it to Miami bank accounts and real estate. The joke in Miami was that local leaders should build a monument to Chávez because he was the Latin American leader who was doing the most for the city's economy.

Thomas ''Mack'' McLarty, who served as President Clinton's chief of staff and special ambassador to the Americas, says Chávez's demise could have some impact on the candidacy of Brazil's left-of-center candidate Luiz Inacio ''Lula'' da Silva, who is leading in the polls for Brazil's October elections.

''All politics is local, and ultimately people in the upcoming elections will vote for the candidate they believe will impact their lives in the most positive way,'' McLarty told me in an interview. ``But what happened in Venezuela could be perceived as a sign that messianic solutions, as opposed to genuine reform measures, lead to disaster. It bodes well for those in the region who advocate for open markets in the region. I don't think this is a net positive for Lula's candidacy.''

Is the coup attempt something to be celebrated? I don't think so. It is a sad reminder that, after more than two decades of democracy and levelheaded leaders in most countries in the region, Latin America is not free from self-proclaimed ''saviors,'' rebellions and military coups.

Now, some U.S. and Latin American officials are trying to make the best of it, arguing that the attempt was a legally tolerable solution to the bloody civil strife in Venezuela. They have some arguments in their favor: in his last day of office, Chávez may have violated several constitutional principles, including freedom of speech, which may turn him -- rather than his foes -- into the one who broke the rule of law.

''It was a democratically elected totalitarian regime,'' says Luis Lauredo, who was U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States until last year. ``Chávez violated the trust of the democratic process: He kept eroding it, and ended up shooting people and shutting down the media.''

But the fact is, it was a civilian-military coup against an elected leader. Much like former Ecuadoran President Jamil Mahuad's forced departure in January, 2000, Chávez was asked to resign by the military following a massive popular uprising. That sets a dangerous precedent for Latin America, no matter how relieved many may be by the end of Chávez's disastrous government.

The only positive outcome of the Venezuelan crisis is that Chávez's tragic passage through history may serve as a reminder that authoritarian ''revolutionary'' leaders with blame-it-on-others policies tend to leave their countries poorer than before.

Globaphobic Vote in Brazil could alter political map of region***But now, a growing minority of influential Brazil watchers in Washington says things may change. There are several reasons why he has a good chance of winning the Oct. 6 primary election and has an even chance to win a possible second-round election scheduled for Oct. 27, they say.

First, Lula's disapproval rates have fallen from about 50 percent in the last elections to about 40 percent. In the event of a second-round election, where the winner of more than half the votes becomes the president, the drop in Lula's disapproval rate to below fifty percent could be a good omen for the leftist candidate…..Fourth, while Lula continues to make pilgrimages to Cuba and to claim that the U.S.-backed hemispheric free trade deal is a U.S. attempt to ''annex'' Latin America, some influential observers feel he may be moving toward the center.

Two former top State Department officials told me in separate interviews this week that a Lula victory would not necessarily lead to radical changes in Brazil, or in South America.****

___________That's not what people who have seen Lula in action say. They say

_____________________________________________________________________________

**** After his election, Chavez set out to weaken Venezuela's institutions, first by engineering a new constitution that bolstered his power and then by appointing loyal military officers to run its independent agencies. Chavez set out to run a country with a sophisticated economy, based primarily on its vast oil reserves, as a one-man show. He employed the military to carry out social projects, and passed by fiat such important legislation as a land reform measure that would confiscate private property. …..Chavez's legacy is a bleak one for Latin America's radical left, now pushing against the prevailing political current of free trade, capitalism and a general nod to U.S. interests. Chavez resisted each of those forces, instead mixing populism and Marxism to appeal to the four of every five Venezuelans living in poverty in a country with the largest oil reserves outside the Persian Gulf. His resignation today ended a self-declared "social revolution" that he hoped would extend beyond Venezuela's borders, and outside Latin America.**** Chavez's Gloomy Legacy for The Left--Washington Post

So on your view, if I think the Patriot Act abridges freedom of speech in the US that would justify me overthrowing President Bush?

After Chavez publically called on the civilians he'd armed, Chavistas, to come out against the marchers and they did, ambushing peaceful, unarmed anti-Chavez marchers from rooftops, his senior military asked him to step down. If a U.S. president had armed one group of Americans and asked them to fire on another group of unarmed Americans, I would hope someone would intervene. This action by Chavez was only the latest in his communist transformation. Most recently he'd begun passing decrees. Check it out, you might find his actions, actionable.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.