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Hugo Chavez - Venezuela
various LINKS to articles | April 14, 2002

Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife

LINKS to Hugo Chavez's "government" June 2001 - March 2002

I'm keeping track of Hugoland formally known as Venezuela. Please LINK any stories or add what you wish to this thread. The above LINK takes you to past articles posted before the new FR format. Below I'll add what I've catalogued since that LINK no longer could take posts.

(March 1, 2002)-- Venezuela's strongman faces widespread calls to step down

By Phil Gunson | Special to The Christian Science Monitor

[Full Text] CARACAS, VENEZUELA - The man who won Venezuelan hearts three years ago as a strongman who could deliver a better life to the masses is now facing them in the streets.

More than 20,000 people turned out this week calling for the resignation of President Hugo Chávez, while some 2,000 supporters marched in a rival demonstration of support. The demonstrations come after months of building discontent with a president who has managed to alienate the labor class, the media, business groups, the church, political parties, and the military.

Four military leaders have publicly called for his resignation.

In November, Chávez introduced 49 "revolutionary" decrees. The package of laws - affecting everything from land rights and fisheries to the oil industry - unified virtually the whole of organized society in a nationwide business and labor stoppage that paralyzed the country on Dec. 10.

The protests this week have a note of irony, because they started out as a commemoration called by President Chávez. In his eyes, Feb. 27 is a milestone of his so-called revolution - "the date on which the people awoke" in 1989. That is when thousands of rioters and looters took to the streets in protest of an IMF-backed austerity plan, in which the government hiked gas prices.

In what became known as the caracazo, or noisy protest, thousands of rioters and looters were met by Venezuelan military forces, and hundreds were killed. Three years later, Chávez and his military co-conspirators failed in an attempt to overthrow the government responsible for the massacre, that of President Carlos Andres Perez. Chávez was jailed for two years.

"But the elements that brought about the caracazo are still present in Venezuela," says lawyer Liliana Ortega, who for 13 years has led the fight for justice on behalf of the victims' relatives. "Poverty, corruption, impunity ... some of them are perhaps even more deeply ingrained than before."

Chávez's supporters consist of an inchoate mass of street traders, the unemployed, and those whom the old system had marginalized. This, to Chávez, is el pueblo - the people.

"But we are 'the people' too," protests teacher Luis Leonet. "We're not oligarchs like he says. The oligarchs are people like Chávez, people with power."

On Wednesday, Leonet joined a march led by the main labor confederation, the CTV, to protest what unions say is a series of antilabor measures, including one of the 49 decrees dealing with public-sector workers.

Chávez won't talk to the CTV, whose leaders, he says, are corrupt and illegitimate. So he refuses to negotiate the annual renewal of collective contracts with the confederation, holding up deals on pay and conditions for hundreds of thousands of union members like Leonet.

Across town on Wednesday, a progovernment march sought to demonstrate that the president's popularity was as high as ever.

"For the popular classes, Chávez is an idol," says marcher Pedro Gutierrez.

Pollster Luis Vicente Leon, of the Datanalisis organization, warns that marches are no measure of relative popularity. "There is a lot of discontent among ... the really poor," Leon says, adding that so far the protests are mainly among the middle class.

But the middle class can be a dangerous enemy. It includes the bulk of the armed forces, and the management of the state oil company, PDVSA.

This month, four uniformed officers, ranging from a National Guard captain to a rear-admiral and an Air Force general, called on the president to resign, while repudiating the idea of a military coup of Chávez, himself a former Army lieutenant-colonel.

But senior "institutionalist" officers "are under severe pressure from lower ranks frustrated at the lack of impact" that these acts have had, a source close to military dissidents says. In other words, a coup cannot be ruled out, although the United States publicly denounces the idea.

Meanwhile, the president's imposition of a new board of directors on PDVSA this week sparked a virtual uprising by the company's senior management. In an unprecedented public statement, managers said the government was pushing the company "to the verge of operational and financial collapse" by imposing political, rather than commercial, criteria.

The political opposition remains relatively weak and divided. But in the view of many analysts, a president who offends both the military and the oil industry is asking for trouble. In the bars and restaurants of Caracas, the debate is no longer over whether Chávez will finish his term, which has nearly five years to run. It is when and how he will go - and what comes next. [End]


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: castro; china; communism; cuba; frlibrarians; hugochavez; latinamericalist; monroedoctrine; venezuela
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Preparing for a Saturday Coup? Venezuela Situation Escalating[Full Text] Universidad Central de Venezuela (UCV) neighborhood watch committee (Bolivian Circle) officials forecast that another attempted coup d'etat will be launched on Saturday (June 15) collateral to an anti-government march on Avendia Bolivar demanding the resignations of both the Attorney General and the Comptroller General of the Republic.

According to the neighborhood watch committee--which draws its support from mostly from students and local residents--anti-government demonstration organizers will attempt to divert the march to the Miraflores Presidential Palace and confront pro-government supporters already gathered outside the Palace gates. The group calls on foriegn media to send their own reporters and not to rely on Venezuela's opposition-led mainstream media for news reports and images. [End]

181 posted on 06/14/2002 3:39:08 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuelan tries to dispel rumors of coup - calls for calm***Since his election in 1998, Chavez has faced increasing opposition to the social and economic policies he says help the poor and stamp out corruption. His critics say the reforms and his ties with anti-U.S. states such as Cuba have sapped investor confidence and fractured the nation along class lines.

After his return to power in April, Chavez promised dialogue with political foes and reformed his cabinet to help deflect criticism he is not open to change. But talks between the rival groups are mired in political sniping as each side blames the other for deaths during the coup. At least 17 people died when gunmen opened fire on an anti-government rally before the coup, and more than 50 people were killed during the rioting and looting that followed.

Opposition leaders this week stepped up their attempts to find legal alternatives to remove Chavez. A group of opposition assembly members Wednesday asked the attorney general to charge the president with embezzlement for what they allege is the government's misuse of $2.3 billion from a rainy-day savings fund. The president's critics are also exploring constitutional methods to remove him from power, such as reforming the constitution to shorten his term in office or a referendum to prompt new elections. ***

182 posted on 06/14/2002 3:40:19 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuelan threats disturb U.S. - Carter reassessing his involvement*** WASHINGTON - The State Department on Thursday complained that a handful of U.S. diplomats and citizens have been mistreated by Venezuelan authorities and also warned opponents of populist President Hugo Chávez that it opposes any new effort to topple him during upcoming weekend protests.

A brief State Department note underscored that tensions between Chávez government authorities and U.S. citizens in Venezuela remain high. The U.S. Embassy in Caracas has issued a protest over ''threatening remarks made to a U.S. diplomat at Maiquetia International Airport by authorities there, as well as mistreatment of two U.S. diplomats and a U.S. citizen teacher by local Venezuelan authorities during a weekend fishing trip,'' the department statement said.***

183 posted on 06/14/2002 5:21:16 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuelans March Against Chavez Amid Coup Jitters***CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched through Caracas on Saturday urging President Hugo Chavez to resign as his government tried to quell rumors of an impending military uprising two months after a coup briefly toppled the left-wing leader. Waving flags, placards and huge, brightly colored banners, the rally jammed the capital's major Avenida Bolivar highway as it snaked through the city with a chorus of chants, whistles and horns.

"We want democracy, that's what we're fighting for. We shouldn't pay too much attention to rumors, this is what is real," said Pedro Perez, a 40-year-old attorney marching with a Venezuelan flag over his shoulder. Eight weeks after the April 11-14 coup against Chavez, Venezuela is plagued by lingering political uncertainty as renewed fears of a fresh rebellion have rattled the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

At Miraflores Presidential Palace on Saturday, the armed forces had reinforced security with more soldiers, most dressed in camouflage fatigues rather than their usual uniforms. Government officials said Chavez, a former paratrooper who himself lead a failed coup in 1992, was not at the palace and had left the capital to visit pro-government rallies in Aragua and Tachira states to the west and southwest of the capital.***

184 posted on 06/16/2002 6:30:35 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuela's Chavez Challenges Foes to Referendum *** The president's political rivals and opposition union officials are now seeking constitutional means to remove Chavez from power, including amending the constitution to shorten his term or holding a national referendum to prompt new elections before Chavez's mandate expires in 2006. But most opposition proposals would have to pass through the National Assembly, where pro-government parties hold a slim majority.

"Just wait, work and try and get rid of me. On 19 August 2003, those who want to get rid of Chavez will have a constitutional, democratic opportunity to ask for a referendum," Chavez said. "And in case those who want me out manage to win the referendum, I'll collect my things and leave." Since 1998, Chavez has faced growing opposition to his self-proclaimed "revolution" he says has aided the poor and helped address inequality. But critics blame his government's social reforms and ties to anti-U.S. states such as Cuba and Libya for scaring off investors and splitting the oil-rich nation along class lines.***

185 posted on 06/17/2002 3:38:23 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Dissidents in Venezuela's military say another coup is likely***E-mails circulated last week saying that the overthrow of Chávez was likely. And 10 masked figures claiming to be military officers appeared on television condemning the government's behavior. Chávez dismissed the rumors as opposition-led propaganda.

Four junior officers who say they are part of a fresh coup plot agreed to talk with the Monitor on condition of anonymity. Three wore masks and camouflage fatigues, while the fourth - a national guard lieutenant - agreed to appear with his face uncovered. "We want to put a stop to an unsustainable situation," says an Army captain. "If nothing changes, we're heading for civil war."

Claiming to represent as much as 70 percent of the armed forces, the officers cited specifically military grievances, as well as their rejection of what they call the government's "communist tendencies." They produced a payslip showing that an ordinary member of the national guard earns as little as $150 per month after deductions. The armed forces, they claim, are being deliberately starved of resources while money is diverted to bolster so-called "Bolivarian circles." These civilian groups are seen by the Venezuelan opposition as partly a cover for the creation of militias.

Sources close to pro-Chávez hardliners confirm that automatic weapons have been distributed to civilian groups and that "some hotheads" would use them in the event of a coup. The military dissidents have threatened to kill any who represent a threat to lives or property. "We are prepared for anything," the Army captain says. He warned of a "river of blood" if there were resistance by pro-Chávez forces, adding that there were "fanatical military units too" that were willing to die for the government.***

186 posted on 06/17/2002 3:39:01 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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With threats to kill public servants FARC halts 30 municipalities as Colombian mayors resign*** About 500 municipal workers -- including town council members, judges, police inspectors and secretaries -- have also quit, Toro said. Ignoring the rebel order can be lethal. When Luis Caro, mayor of the town of Solita, missed a FARC-imposed deadline to bow out earlier this month, he was shot dead by the guerrillas.

Many analysts believe the FARC wants to erase all traces of government from hundreds of towns in order to create a power vacuum, then move in and take control. With more territory under its domain, experts say, the rebel group would be in a stronger position should the Colombian government reopen peace negotiations. "It's a very sophisticated strategy," said Vicente Torrijos, who teaches political science at Rosario University in Bogota, the nation's capital. "What's at stake are the conditions under which a new round of peace talks will be held."

President Andres Pastrana's government is pleading with mayors to stay put, offering them flak jackets, escorts and armored cars. His administration says it cannot accept resignations of public officials coerced by guerrillas at gunpoint. Even so, a domino effect appears to be taking hold. The rebel strategy has proved so effective in the south that the FARC last week extended decrees to parts of Arauca, Cesar and Bolivar states in northern Colombia.

At the Huila state government building in Neiva, an official said she has received letters of resignation from seven of that state's 37 mayors. Moments after she spoke, a nervous mayor burst into the room to announce that he, too, intends to abandon his post. "I have to," said Gentil Bahamon, mayor of the village of Suaza. "Besides, all my employees have resigned, so how can I work?"

Ever since the popular election of local officials began in Colombia in the early 1990s, small-town mayors have come under pressure from the guerrillas, who often outnumber police and army troops in isolated regions. During the electoral campaign two years ago, for example, the FARC met with scores of mayoral candidates to recommend rebel collaborators for city jobs and to demand payoffs from municipal budgets. Over the past 18 months, 14 mayors have been killed and 16 others kidnapped.

Last month, the guerrillas abruptly switched tactics when they began to issue expulsion orders. In some towns, they ordered only mayors to quit. Elsewhere, they told all civil servants to either resign or to simply stop working. "The mayors are bowing to the rebel warnings, because they know that these people are capable of killing them," Toro said. "This could generate an unprecedented institutional crisis, which is what the FARC wants."***

187 posted on 06/17/2002 3:46:44 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Peru's military confronts spreading riots*** *** The news agency Agence France-Press reported that between 3,000 and 4,000 rioters took over the local state-owned television station, the national tax service and the provincial offices in Tacna.

Tacna Mayor Luis Torres called on Toledo to reconsider his administration's privatization policies. Tempers have been rising in Arequipa and other southern departments for the past few months, with local politicians and left-leaning local groups opposing the government's plan to privatize state-owned companies.

A nationwide strike was called in mid-May to protest privatization and several mayors, including Arequipa Mayor Juan Guillén, have been on a hunger strike for a week to oppose the government's plans. Privatization is one of the most controversial components of Toledo's economic policy, with more than 60 percent of Peruvians rejecting privatization in public opinion polls.

Public opposition to the government's economic policies, especially privatization, is one of the reasons for Toledo's precipitous decline in public opinion polls since taking office last July.***

188 posted on 06/18/2002 2:54:54 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Ex-Military in Venezuela to March *** Facing 30-day jail terms if they wear their uniforms for a political demonstration, the marchers, led by Hidalgo Valero, a former National Guard lieutenant colonel, decided to carry them instead.

Some feared the protest could trigger clashes as in April, when shootings at an opposition march sparked a coup that ousted Chavez for two days. Dozens died in riots, and the coup revealed a sharply divided top brass. ``The armed forces don't belong to any political party, and (Chavez's) biggest mistake is insisting that the military support his revolution,'' said Francisco Arias Cardenas, who as an officer plotted a failed 1992 coup with Chavez and now heads the opposition Union party.

The retirees planned to march to a presidential palace, which is defended by civilian ``Chavistas'' not afraid to fight. Before a civilian march last Saturday, the government placed anti-aircraft batteries near the palace in what it called a security measure. The missiles can be aimed at the streets. Analysts point to Chavez's next round of military promotions on July 5 as another potential spark for violence in this nation on edge. ***

189 posted on 06/20/2002 6:29:38 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Marchers' statement asks Chávez to resign - "We have come to end communism in Venezuela"*** CARACAS - Like a Wild West showdown, six opponents of President Hugo Chávez on Thursday met one of his military guards in the middle of a street blocked off by police, with cheering pro and anti-Chávez crowds at each corner, to deliver a statement demanding the leftist president resign.

''We have come to end communism in Venezuela,'' said retired Army Col. Hidalgo Valera, who led a march by some 4,000 Chávez opponents to the dramatic encounter five blocks from the whitewashed Miraflores presidential palace. ''They will not pass,'' a smaller pro-Chávez crowd chanted four blocks from Miraflores, separated from the opposition marchers by four thick lines of police and National Guard riot units. The protests ended peacefully, unlike one April 11 that ended with pro-Chávez gunmen firing on the opposition. Enraged military commanders immediately toppled Chávez, but loyalists returned him to power April 14.

As the protesters marched Thursday, Chávez made a surprise visit to the shantytown of Las Malvinas, in south-eastern Caracas, warning supporters to be aware of another coup attempt. ''At any moment they can try to lash out at us like on April 11,'' he said according to The Associated Press.***

190 posted on 06/21/2002 2:36:34 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Chavez, opponents brace for 2nd coup*** CARACAS, Venezuela - Tensions are again rising and residents are stocking up on food in fear - or hope - of a second coup against President Hugo Chavez, who was briefly ousted April 11, only to be returned to power by supporters two days later. "Let him go away, however it happens, just as long as nobody dies," said Caracas bartender Luis Aguilar. Such opinions are heard with increasing frequency, with the calm that followed April's short-lived coup having given way to weekly demonstrations against the leftist president and renewed demands that he leave office.

Citing fears of more upheaval, Venezuela yesterday postponed a summit of 15 leaders from the developing world that had been scheduled for next month. On Thursday, thousands of civilians and retired military officials attempted to march on the presidential palace to demand that Mr. Chavez stop politicizing military promotions. A counterdemonstration of Chavez loyalists blocked the marchers from reaching the palace.***

191 posted on 06/22/2002 3:09:00 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuelan election council investigating alleged foreign donations to Chavez's political party *** CARACAS, Venezuela - Venezuela's national elections council said it was investigating allegations that President Hugo Chavez's political party failed to report dlrs 1.5 million in campaign donations from a Spanish bank. Council president Roberto Ruiz said Thursday that the council may present a report within 15 days. The investigation was prompted by deputies from the opposition COPEI party and by a complaint filed by Tulio Alvarez, a private attorney that has represented opposition politicians in filing corruption charges against Chavez

Alvarez accused Chavez and his campaign officers of violating campaign finance laws, El Nacional newspaper reported Thursday. Venezuelan laws require full disclosure of donations and prohibit donations from foreign business interests.

Also Thursday, the Supreme Court granted ordinary citizens the right to ask the court to strip the president and other officials of immunity from trial. Previously, only the attorney general could petition the court. The court ruled on a petition filed by Alvarez, who argued that Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez should not investigate 14 criminal corruption complaints pending against Chavez. because he is a Chavez ally.***

192 posted on 06/22/2002 4:12:17 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuela's Chavez Fears Possible Air Attack *** CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, ousted briefly during a coup in April, said on Friday his government had installed anti-aircraft batteries in Caracas in case an air attack was launched against him. "It's a theory that we have to consider ... that they could be preparing, from somewhere in the Caribbean, some bold aerial action against Miraflores Palace," Chavez told reporters, without indicating who might be planning such as attack.

The populist president said his government had installed the air defenses on the basis of information obtained from suspects in the April 11-14 uprising that left more than 60 people dead. Chavez, a former paratrooper who himself led a botched coup in 1992 before turning to the ballot box, declined to provide further details. Miraflores is located in central Caracas near other key government buildings. ***

193 posted on 06/22/2002 4:13:21 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Unusual suspects: Police may be behind executions in Venezuela ***And it's not just police officers killing alleged career criminals. Civilians lynched 63 supposed criminals during PROVEA's 2000 reporting period compared to 22 in the 2001 period, the human rights group reported. Police executions of suspected career criminals is not a new phenomenon in Venezuela, where ill-trained and low-paid police have long faced hardened criminals and a judicial system were the accused can easily buy judges. ''The police feel impotent before this, so they become judge and executioner,'' said Ildefonso Urdaneta, head of the federal police, the Scientific Penal and Criminal Investigations Bureau (SPCIB).***
194 posted on 06/22/2002 4:14:06 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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President Chavez denies receiving illegal campaign funding from Spanish Bank*** A probe by Spain's top investigative magistrate into secret offshore accounts once held by BBVA revealed that the bank sent money in 1988 and 1999 to a Dutch Antilles offshore account in the name of Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement party. The accounts held some dlrs 200 million when they were closed in 2000. According to Spanish authorities, Chavez's party received a dlrs 500,000 donation from BBVA in November 1998 for the presidential campaign that same year. The Fifth Republic Movement allegedly received another dlrs 1 million for the 1999 campaign for a constituent assembly, a popularly elected body stacked with Chavez allies.***
195 posted on 06/23/2002 4:16:28 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Chavez: More Security Will Avert Coup - Block Watches Beefed Up*** He said that his government had uncovered an assassination plot involving "mercenary groups" in Latin America and that anti-aircraft batteries were installed near the presidential palace after agents learned of an "audacious" plan to attack it. Since the abortive coup, Chavez said, his government has been working to increase intelligence gathering and strengthen security while closely monitoring domestic plots to unseat him. The measures include better coordination of pro-Chavez neighborhood groups known as "Bolivarian Circles," the president said at a news conference. "If we were surprised last time, now we wouldn't be, given the state of alert we have," Chavez said. A second coup is "impossible," he said.

The leftist Chavez has won the support of millions of impoverished Venezuelans through his attempts to bring social equality and throw out what he considers a corrupt political elite. A large but disorganized opposition accuses him of amassing authoritarian powers and mismanaging the oil-rich economy of Venezuela, the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the United states.***

196 posted on 06/23/2002 4:17:15 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Crisis sweeps Argentina towards isolation*** The symbols of 21st century globalisation are starting to look like relics, while products that disappeared a generation ago are returning to haunt the present. Many foreign companies, such as the Home Depot do-it-yourself group and the Wendy's hamburger chain, that once made Argentine cities look much like north American ones have gone. Television is also changing fast. Sky TV is leaving and CNN was temporarily suspended after devaluation.

The end of the dollar peg and the 70 per cent plunge in the value of the peso since January have halted the national passion for travel. Now foreign trips are beyond the means of all but the wealthiest Argentines, those who held their savings in dollars and in offshore banks. International airlines have scrapped direct flights to the US and Europe or drastically cut their frequency. The only new route planned by a main airline is to Washington, home to the many multilateral institutions negotiating aid for Argentina. Even flying to another country at the end of the world is becoming difficult: Qantas dropped its flights to Australia this year.

Phoning is no better: the country's telecommunications network is decaying as foreign-owned phone operators, such as Spain's Telefónica, halt investment. International phone calls take longer to be connected and will soon be priced out of reach of most Argentines if, as planned, they are charged in dollars. Even the internet, which was supposed to make the distance between nations irrelevant, is deteriorating. Users say connections are slower and less reliable and operators say they cannot import parts to maintain the networks. And the foreign magazines at the kiosks on Florida Street are looking increasingly frayed. "We always had whatever title you wanted," said María Inés Freire, whose company distributes many foreign titles in Argentina. "The kiosks were overflowing with foreign newspapers and magazines. That no longer happens. We are isolated."

Argentines who used to be versed in world affairs find there is a growing gulf between them and their foreign friends. Carolina Barros, a public relations executive, said she has had to abandon subscriptions to The Economist and Wallpaper magazines since their price in pesos soared. "Wallpaper is more expensive than an Argentine coffee table book. I feel like I'm being isolated from the world. "We Argentines always felt we were a touch above other Latin Americans," said Ms Barros. "Now we find we're at the bottom of the pile. I e-mail a Brazilian friend and I feel like we're from a different continent. They'll say they're installing hardware on their computer that we can no longer buy. In less than a year we've managed to erase the progress of an entire decade."***

197 posted on 06/23/2002 8:21:41 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Venezuela's Chavez Dismisses Calls for His Indictment ***Opposition leaders are now probing constitutional or court moves to unseat the fiery left-wing leader. Although the Supreme Court is still examining the accusations for merit, opposition leaders hope to indict the president for allegedly misusing about $2 billion in oil income destined for a rainy-day savings fund, the Macro-Economic Stabilization Fund or FIEM.

……. During Sunday's five-hour broadcast, Chavez also dismissed accusations he improperly took funds from Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Spain's second-largest bank. Bank officials have denied committing a crime, but acknowledged last week the bank acted without transparency when it provided $1.5 million to the president's campaigns. The president also denied opposition charges his government hurt the economy by selling cheap petroleum to Cuba. Critics of Chavez, a close ally of Cuban President Fidel Castro, blame the president's self-proclaimed "revolution" for nudging Venezuela into recession. ***

198 posted on 06/24/2002 2:59:53 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Storm Clouds Over Brazil- [Full Text] Brazil today is going through some of the same financial gyrations that triggered the global economic malaise of 1999. The recent past has indicated that Brazil is not only the lynchpin of economic stability in Latin America, but a nation that can also potentially affect the world's economic superpower, the United States. For this reason, developments in Brazil should be gauged warily.

In a Jan. 22, 1999, speech, just days after Brazil's currency devaluation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that Brazil's economic ills could dampen demand for U.S. goods, especially if its symptoms spread to other countries. Brazil, Mr. Greenspan said, must rein in its budget deficit and ward off inflation in order "to limit the potential for contagion to the financial markets and economies of Brazil's important trading partners, including the United States." Mr. Greenspan's successive interest-rate cuts in the wake of Russia's 1998 and Brazil's 1999 economic meltdowns helped insulate America from the risks of a global economic downturn.

In the past couple of months, Brazil has come under intense financial pressure that harkens back to its 1999 crisis. Investor wariness of Brazilian risk has caused debt to become incredibly expensive, which could in turn cause substantial financial havoc. Currently, Brazilian bonds are being sold at 17 percentage points over U.S. Treasury bonds.

But just what are the inherent risks to investing in Brazil? In many respects, the economic news is better than it was in 1999. The country's total external debt, which is equivalent to 50 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), is held primarily by the private sector. Brazil's currency today floats freely, so investors aren't likely to be hit with an unexpected, precipitous currency plunge. And, since Brazil is widely considered by many in Washington to be too large to let fail, the International Monetary Fund loaned Brazil a not-too-shabby $15.7 billion last September.

Still, there are some economic clouds as well. Brazil's GDP declined by 1.5 percent last year. In the 12-month period that concluded March 31, the economy has grown a mere 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, public debt has grown to 55 percent of GDP, and much of it is linked to the dollar.

But investors' most strident fears are centered around the political future, rather than the economic present. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the presidential candidate for the opposition Workers' Party, is so far the country's favorite to win the election in October. He is largely considered a wild card when it comes to economic policy. Mr. Silva has recently tried to allay investor jitters by pledging to "maintain whatever primary budget surplus was necessary" to control the rise of domestic debt, and said he wouldn't let Brazil default on its debts if he became president.

Much could happen in the months leading up to October, and Brazilians may just decide to opt out of the Lula da Silva gamble. Still, should the crisis in Brazil worsen, America should take the necessary monetary and fiscal steps to insulate the domestic economy from risk and stand prepared to help Brazil with advice. However, it should show considerable restraint in undertaking yet another billion-dollar Brazilian bailout. [End]

199 posted on 06/27/2002 2:11:06 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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Argentina Rocked by Bloody Riots, 2 Dead- [Full Text] BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Police firing rubber bullets and tear gas canisters fought pitched battles with anti-government protesters in the Argentine capital on Wednesday, leaving two dead in the worst riots since the elected government was toppled in December. The clashes began when riot police tried to disperse hundreds of unemployed protesters, some wearing ski masks and holding slingshots, blocking roads into the capital to decry economic policies that have deepened poverty and joblessness across Argentina. Officials said at least 17 people were injured and 160 arrested.

As evening fell, hundreds more protesters gathered outside Congress and the presidential palace in central Buenos Aires, and the clanging of pots and pans as ordinary Argentines joined in the demonstrations recalled scenes that preceded the fall of President Fernando de la Rua amid food riots. Argentina's caretaker leader, Eduardo Duhalde, languishing in the polls and fighting for his political future, had vowed a get-tough approach on protests as he struggled to convince a skeptical International Monetary Fund to agree to an aid pact vital to stemming a spiraling social crisis and punishing four-year recession.

Protesters, who demand government aid for everything from medicine to food and who regularly block main highways around Argentina, accused the baton-wielding police of heavy-handedness. They said more than 90 demonstrators were injured. "We have got to end Duhalde and the IMF's reign. If we don't get change, we will have to fight on," said one picketer brandishing a catapult. Tear gas mingled with smoke from burning tires laid on the road by demonstrators. Television footage showed the corpse of one of the two protesters shot to death on the outskirts of the capital being rushed from the scene in the back of a pickup truck, his lifeless eyes wide open. It was unclear who fired the shots. [End]

200 posted on 06/27/2002 2:26:54 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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