One of the (many) homicidal Arab lunatics uses a nuke, dirty bomb, or chemical weapons against Israel, resulting in the destruction of that country. Israel retaliates with nukes, obliterating the Arabs. World economic chaos and depression ensue. Europe collapses. 20-30 years hence, the USA and China, battered but still standing, reemerge from the chaos and take the oil from the now empty and still radioactive Middle Eastern oil fields. The Arab world is gone. Israel is also gone but world-wide Judaism survives. and again flourishes. Islam joins communism and naziism on the ash heap of history's losers. The beginning of the 22nd century finds a US-China hegemony. The Great African Die-off (as history will call it) from AIDS, tribal violence, and the collapse of international help, tapers-off by the end of the 21st century, opening the continent to mass emmigration from other lands.
Bummer, huh?
No kidding. Please prophesy illusions to us from now on... :)
One of the (many) homicidal Arab lunatics uses a nuke, dirty bomb, or chemical weapons against Israel, resulting in the destruction of that country.
Does this mean that a terrorist organization launches this attack or does it mean that the leader of one of the Arab countries launches the attack? If he means the leader of a country, then his scenario starts with something wholly unrealistic as Spook's post makes clear. However, a terrorist group might just be willing to start this scenario. Al-Qaeda doesn't like the governments of Saudi Arabia and Egypt any more than it likes Israel. In Al-Qaeda's mind, these moderate governments are as bad as enemies. Therefore, none of the reasons for caution would apply to them.
I also don't believe that we would have a 20-30 year depression. Once shooting starts, everyone will start fighting to own the oil. War typically doesn't produce depression.
If the terrorists start a major war either by nuking Israel or by nuking the United States, I support taking possession of the Middle East by force. We cannot forever let these thugs take shots at us, and if they escalate to the point of using WMD on an American city, we should retaliate in a way that will keep them from ever being heroes to the other Arabs. We should also own the oil fields as the price of their hurting us.
WFTR
Bill
Cool, radioactive oil. That should make checking the dip-stick at night a breeze.....just look to see how far up the stick it glows ;-)
Nonsense. Israel would use air burst neutron bombs, leaving negligble fallout and little blast damage.