Posted on 04/07/2002 8:49:09 AM PDT by Brian Mosely
Edited on 09/03/2002 4:50:15 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
It still is not known
whether Gavril Princip and his group
were members of the Black Hand,
after 100 years the question still is murky,
but I believe the general consensus is
that they functioned independently.
Austria, of course, held Serbia responsible
for harbouring and directing terrorists,
and invaded that country
to end the terrorist threat.
I would not be surprised however to see a visible offense soon. IMHO, the covert work is well underway both with regard to Iraq and our capabilities to deal with a WMD attack on a large scale.
I believe that a single large scale Iraqi WMD attack with deaths in the 5 to 6 digits would be enough for the U.S. to utterly remove most of Iraq in a single day without mercy.
There are two wild cards in this that nobody is talking about: China (possibly involved on the other side) and Japan (on our side and very powerful, but not currently armed for military action).
I believe the roles of Atta and Gavril Princip may have been similar.
Just as Princip and his group planned a terrorist attack
before they encountered any members of the 'Black Hand',
and then went to them for weapons and assistance,
Atta and his friends came up with an idea,
(the idea of crashing hijacked airplanes into buildings, had,
of course, been 'floating in the wind' for some time)
and then they went to Al Qaeda for financial and logistical support
(and some personnel)
and to Iraq (probably) for 'weapons'.
(The 09-11-01 group probably provided their own box-cutters)
I am sure Al Qaeda was happy just with the promise
that many Americans would be killed.
Saddam (if it was him) would have demanded complete control
over how the Anthrax was used.
That is one reason why I believe the envelopes were filled in Iraq
(if the anthrax came from there).
All this, of course, IMHO, as always,
but given the will-power, organizational ability and determination
that the maniac Atta (look at those eyes!) must have had
I cannot see him as being just a puppet
whose strings were being pulled
by that pompous bearded fool in Jalalabad
or by Saddam.
Anyway, Saddam couldn't have organized such an operation.
I don't see why some people see Saddam
as being such a genius of evil,
tell me ONE clever thing Saddam ever has done
in his career??
I'd agree with your timetable and analysis except for two factors:
1. You cannot deter lunatics, and that is what we are dealing with. They will attack us whenever they feel the time is right, regardless of the casualties we can inflict in retaliation.
2. Given the nature of the opponent, we must strike before they are ready to hit us with their "best shot". We do not want to fight this war on the enemy's timetable.
I do not know their timetable, but it is clearly related to internal Arab politics. They are laying the foundation for a general war that sucks in many Arab nations. I do not know how close they are, but time is not on our side.
BTW: I expected our move to be in the first half of April, but that is not looking likely. Conventional wisdom says that, given the weather, we must move soon or wait until the fall (I am not sure if the weather would really stop us). Keeping the lid on in Israel until cooler weather returns will be very difficult.
Well, the seemingly pointless act of booby-trapping all the oilfields of Kuwait -- a completely unnecessary provocation of a vastly superior enemy when the Gulf War was already lost -- now seems kind of smart. It lays the groundwork for this little caper with the anthrax -- we know he's serious, that there's no limit to the destruction he will wreak when cornered. The fact is, Saddam has stuck to certain principles in his career, and they have served him well. The first principle is, always be more ruthless than your opponent. Never show any mercy, never shirk from any cruelty. Even if you get a bloody nose, your opponent will be more intimidated when you get up off the floor to go the next round. Every thug and every tyrant knows this works.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.