Posted on 04/06/2002 10:27:01 AM PST by Spar
Title: Albania, Kosovo plan 'breakthrough' route
Source: UPI
Date: 03/16/2002 15:32
Summary: TIRANA, Albania, Mar 16, 2002 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- Albania and its neighbor to the northeast, Kosovo, plan to build a highway designed to connect Pristina, the capital of the autonomous Serbian province, with Albania's port of Durres on the Adriatic.
Is that not the terminus for the East to West pipeline route? Of Course.
http://www.univ.trieste.it/~vplanet/atti/Themeli.doc
INTERREG IIc Programme - Vision Planet Project: Albania
Contribution to the Adriatic Conference Trieste, 1 - 2 July 1999
by Ing Gjergji THEMELI
Consulting Engineer on Albanian Affairs 2, Parvis Bièvre 92160 Antony France Tel/ Fax (33-1) 46 66 11 29
1. Introduction
The South-eastern European countries and the Balkans played for centuries role of the corridor of transit of the goods and peoples between Far-East and East to West. One part of this corridor known as Via Egnatia established a line in the map of Europe some 2000 years ago.
A modern transcontinental East-West Transport Corridor linking Adriatic with Black Sea has long been recognised by all the governments in the area as an important undertaking for integrating the economies of the South Balkan region with Europe, Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia.
In 1994, Italy, Albania, Macedonia, Bulgaria and Turkey executed an Memorandum of Understanding on the subject. Following this the Pan-European Second Transport conference held in Crete designated the East-West Corridor No. 8 as one of the priority transportation networks of Europe.
2. Description of the 8th Corridor
The overall objective is the development of a safe continuous and operationally efficient transport corridor that conforms to the applicable European and international design standards. Albanian related elements of this Corridor including all modes of transport are:
Roads : conform to the Trans-European Motor-way design standards, access-controlled and with cross sections that include at least two lanes in each direction and profiles that have a maximum grade of 6% or less. A northern and central highway between Albanian border and the city of Skopje. A main highway between Albanian/Macedonian border and capital city of Tirana and the port cities of Durres and Vlore.
Railways : Railroad conform to the International Union Railroads standards linking the capital city of Tirana and the port cities of Durres and Vlore with Albanian/Macedonian border and further with the city of Skopje, Sofia, until Burgos, Varna in Black Sea.
Gas pipelines : The off shore gas pipeline connection with South Italy supplying the Algerian gas via Tunisia, Mediterranean sea, South Italy, could well continue via Adriatic sea bed to Albania.
This way the cheap Algerian gas besides the Russian gas will be available to other Balkan countries, diversifying the sources of supply and make gas prices in the area more competitive. This will contribute also to improve the security and diversification of gas supply of all countries of the Balkan Peninsula (Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, FYROM, Romania, Serbia and Turkey) [My Comment-Serbia? Not Yugoslavia?].
Oil pipelines : A 567 mile crude oil pipeline for the transport of Russian, Azerbaijani, Georgian, Turkmeni, and Kazakhstani oil from the Bulgarian Black Sea port of Bourgas to the Albanian Adriatic Sea port of Vlorë with possible two additional connections, one across the Straits of Otranto to refineries located near Brindisi, Italy and the other connecting Macedonia and the Panchevo Refinery near Belgrade. (36" diameter, capability of 750,000 barrels per day).
With the newly-established world standards for oil tankers which make them increasingly expensive to build, insure, and operate, this oil pipeline will bring oil directly to the Southern and Western European regional markets and will sharply reduce tanker traffic through the dangerously narrow Bosphorus Straits and ecologically-sensitive waters of the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.
Other : part of the East-West corridor infrastructure will also be electricity and fiber optic telecommunications lines.
Port of Durres : (and Vlora) will serve as the Adriatic Sea shipping gateway(s) to the corridor efficiently handling all types of commodities, including containerised traffic. Construction of a new ferry terminal at Durres, financed by EIB /Phare will upgrade the traffic through the Port of Durres which has been until now entirely devoted to Albanian imports and exports. A major proportion of its 2.8 million tonnes traffic in the 1980s consisted of exports of ore. Ferry traffic consisting of trucks crossing to Italy is also important.
A new project to support further rehabilitation and commercialisation of port operations at Durres has started including some organisational changes to prepare for privatisation.
3. Corridors and sustainable development of the area: This strategic trans national infrastructure project has important impacts for Albania, Adriatic, Balkans and more generally EU areas:
· It will give access to a significant alternative source of raw material (gas, oil, ores).
· It will build a foundation for healthier economies throughout the Balkans (countries with weaker economy, but big development potentialities) and facilitate rapid integration with Western Europe.
· Seen from the Adriatic context, it introduces facilities and possibilities for the transit traffic accommodation with Albania as terminal.
· in the inter-regional cooperation frame and thanks to the favourable geographical position, N-S and E-W corridors represent a big interest for the parallel development of all Balkans neighbour countries (infrastructure, services, tourism, etc.).
It will constitute also a big contribution to the stability and security of the Balkan region which is so heavily affected from the last developments in Kosovo.
4. Corridors and Albania’s Integration in EU Economic impact
The challenges and the possibilities of the region, the integration with new initiatives, co-operation of the countries of South eastern Europe, the prospective for a new infrastructure oriented Marshall Plan, require new spatial planning efforts based in natural position and assets, but also in financial and technical assistance for Albania.
Economy Sector of Albania Investments Amount (million USD)
Roads and highways 2.490
Railways 90
Ports and Airports 215
Water pipes 315
Electro power system and interconnections 570
Connection with International Gas network 280
Telecommunication 458
Total 4.418
Table 1 : Total investments for Marshall Plan. For Albania. Source : ATA 20.06.1999
These investments for the construction of the corridors and up-grading of infrastructure in general are expected to boost the national economy and to facilitate rapid integration of Albania with Western Europe.
Other political actions may be suggested to complete the above mentioned measures :
Action 1: Monetary regime
The corridor event could be the incitement to exploit new potential for euro, both for economic value and symbol for inclusion in modern Europe. A radical step would be to euro-ise totally the Albanian economy as well as allow for predominant ownership of the banking system by EU banks.
Action 2 : Market regime
Given the multilateral, pan-European features of the Corridor initiative, and the respective driving role, especially for Durrazio port activity in Adriatic coast, a zero-tariff free trade could be envisaged for Albania, eliminating all tariffs on industrial goods completely since next year, with subsequent transition into EU Customs Union and Single Market.
Given the high degree of smuggling and low performance of the Albanian economy at present, the EU could make an offer of tariff compensation grant to Albania that should be attractive to the Albanian state (higher than what the Albanian authorities can actually collect by customs revenues, but still a small amount for the EU budget).
Action 3 : Securisation
Up to present the support from EU Member States to Albania for security and military services has been a limited response to urgent needs :
· the Italian led military and para-military force in 1997 stopped the violent anarchy, and permitted restoration of more normal democratic governance;
· technical assistance support has been provided for training the police force and customs posts. Italy and Greece have made major contributions in easing social and political tensions by absorbing very large numbers (between 300 000 and 400 000) of Albanian migrants.
But the scale of outstanding problems is still enormous For the securisation of the Corridor’s area, stronger intervention could be envisaged, if the Albanian authorities at a certain time wished to make a more decisive break with the status quo :
· Customs posts could be run, not just advised, by EU/member state services, thus to stop frontier corruption.
· Police and para-military forces, presumably from Italy and Greece, could control the flow of illegal migration, especially across the Adriatic, through being able to operate on the Albanian coast more effectively, rather than chase speedboats in the night across the Adriatic.
These last three actions - euro-isation, free trade and securisation - accompanied by EU financial compensation to Albanian budget - would completely transform the incentive structure, ground rules and governance of the economy, in the sense of a radical cleansing of corruption, criminality and cronyism and render possible, even without fulfilling all the criteria, a quick integration of Albania in EU system.
5. Conclusion
Albania is really willing to turn the page on the past isolation and become the door of the Adriatic broad sea highway connecting Europe with Asia. The 8th Corridor is a chance for the future of this country, for its economic development and stability. It is also a chance to revitalise the universitary and scientific sector of Albania.
The Albanian task force for Vision Planet project, with the ambition to seize this opportunity, has already proposed to some twenty main university and R&D centres of Albania to elaborate science related technical proposals for trans-national co-operation. These proposals will soon be handed to the Vision Planet project co-ordinators and we hope they will become part of existing network programmes and serve as starting point for future fruitful collaboration with Albania in CADSES area.
Wishing a successful conclusion of Adriatic Conference, Thank you for your kind attention.
Read also: U.S. majors consider Balkan pipeline-project head "oil from Bulgaria to Albania via Macedonia"
Sabotage! Huge Explosion topples High Voltage Pylon Connecting Greece and Italy near Albanian Border
Anyone else seeing the connections?
Pipeline Bourgas – Vlyora Is Fully Competitive In Any Respect (1:30 PM)
Mr. Roumen Nikolov, representative of AMBO Company in Bulgaria and a creator of the project Bourgas – Vlyora, in an interview for Darik Radio
At the end of last week in Moscow, Bulgaria and Greece signed a memorandum for construction of Bourgas – Alexandrupolis pipeline. Why the pipelines became a topic of conversation recently, after so many years of silence?
The two pipelines, which are supposed to go through Bulgaria, are function of the development of the pipelines in Caspian and Black Sea regions. In November the pipeline of the Caspian oil consortium from Tengiz to Novorosiysk will be put in use. It will work with half of its capacity till the end of this year, which means 28 M tons yearly capacity. After 3 or 4 years it will reach its maximum capacity of 50 –55 M tons. It means that as long as the Bosphoros won’t be able to take those quantities, there should be another pipeline in the West of Bosphoros and the project of AMBO is one of the alternatives, which we think is very appropriate.
The Bulgarian politicians avoid taking a side about both projects Bourgas – Alexandrupolis and Bourgas – Vlyora. Do you think that the activization of the talks about Bourgas – Alexandrupolis shows some preference for this project?
I think that the government should support both projects on equal base. The final decision won’t be taken by the Bulgarian government but by the people and the companies, which hold the oil. They should be convinced which project is the most profitable. Here is the role of the government – to treat the two projects equally, which means not to give any preferences, political or economic, to neither of the projects.
Did you talk about your project with representatives of the Bulgarian executive authority recently?
Yes. During the last 6 months Mr. Ferguson, President of AMBO, met the Bulgarian PM twice. He also met the Minister of Regional development and Public works Paskalev and the Deputy Minister of Regional development Hasan Hasan, who is in charge for these projects. Meetings with representatives of the Foreign Ministry were held too.
What were the results of these meetings?
The main purpose of the meetings was Bulgarian authorities to be informed what Mr. Ferguson did, what talks he is holding at the moment with other concerned persons.
We know that the US government supported Bourgas – Vlyora project politically and financially. This project was supported also by big companies, which operate in the Caspian basin. Do you stiil have their support and at what stage is the project now?
The project is at stage of serious and almost completed talks with the main companies in the Caspian basin –
Chevron, Texaco, Exon mobil. Of course we are talking with other companies too. The US government funded pre-project research. At the moment we expect funding for legal assistance again by the US Trade and Development Agency. The funding will allow the three countries Bulgaria, Macedonia and Albania to reach a trilateral agreement, which is vital for the future of any pipeline.
Do you think that there is a place for two pipelines in Bulgaria?
Place for two pipelines will have may be after years, but not now. Economically considered oil companies are not willing to have two pipelines in one country. It means that they will depend on the country in two ways.
How will be proved the economic effectiveness of the pipeline Bourgas – Vlyora? It is known that it is the more expensive one.
When the economic reports for a projects are made, it is considered the transportation of the oil from the very oil fields in the Caspian basin to the final receiver, may be in North Europe or Amsterdam or the USA. The pipeline is just a part of this transport corridor. Shorter pipeline don’t necessarily means cheaper transport. Longer one, in the particular case that of AMBO, comes out in the middle of Mediterranean Sea on a tanker path, from which the oil may go to distinct destination cheaper.
There were made calculations that at the moment transportation of the oil is cheaper by tankers than through the Bourgas – Alexandrupolis pipeline. Did you make any calculations about your project?
We have very substantial economic calculations. They were made with the financial assistance of the US Trade and Development Agency. The final result shows that the pipeline can be competitive. Better results are obtained not only compared to those of Bourgas – Alexandrupolis project but compared to other projects too.
According to you, which lobbies define the oil policy – economic or political?
If you want to talk about the US government, which is supposed to bind to many of the oil companies, I can say that the proportion is 50 to 50, but economy is overwhelming in any case. It is positive Bulgaria, but is a matter of another conversation.
Chevron and Exxon plan $1.13b link
Sofia |Reuters | 16-02-2002
U.S. oil giants ExxonMobil Corp and ChevronTexaco Corp are considering building a $1.13 billion trans-Balkan pipeline to ship oil westwards from the Caspian and the Black Sea, the project's manager said yesterday.
"We are in regular discussions with Chevron and Exxon and examine various aspects of the project," said Edward Ferguson, President and CEO of the Albanian, Macedonian and Bulgarian Oil Corp (AMBO) which manages the project.
The project, in discussion since 1996, envisages carrying Caspian oil from Bulgaria to Albania via Macedonia, bypassing the heavily used Bosphorus Straits through Turkey.
AMBO, registered in the U.S., has letters of acceptance from the governments of the three Balkan countries for the 898 km underground pipeline linking Bulgaria's Black Sea port of Bourgas to the Albanian port of Vlora.
The pipeline would have a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels. Ferguson said the project would be fully financed by Western companies and the three Balkan countries just had to provide institutional support.
He said the main consumers of the oil carried through the trans-Balkan pipeline would be northwestern Europe and the U.S. rather than the Mediterranean region. AMBO was confident that another planned 700 million euro pipeline would not threaten its own project as the two had targeted different investors and consumers.
ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco have denied claims that they are considering building a trans-Balkan pipeline to ship oil west from the Caspian and the Black Seas. The head of Albanian, Macedonian and Bulgarian Oil Corp. (AMBO), which manages the project, said last week the two majors are in regular discussions on the project, which envisions carrying 750,000 barrels a day of landlocked Caspian oil from Bulgaria to Albania via Macedonia.
According to a spokesperson at ExxonMobil, any involvement in building this pipeline is "very premature". There have only been preliminary discussions at best. "We always keep up to date on pipeline projects as they develop, but we have no current plans to fund any projects in that region," said a spokesman for ChevronTexaco.
The AMBO project, which has been on the drawing board since 1996, aims to bring growing oil supplies from Caspian states such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, bypassing the heavily used Bosphorus Straits through Turkey.
Wonder if the oil companies were told to put this release out to keep the previous releases from being entered as evidence by the defense at the Milosevic trial
A discreet deal in the pipeline (15 February 2001)
Nato mocked those who claimed there was a plan for Caspian oil
Special report: the petrol war
George Monbiot
Guardian
Thursday February 15, 2001
Gordon Brown knows precisely what he should do about BP. The company's £10bn profits are crying out for a windfall tax. Royalties and petroleum revenue tax, both lifted when the oil price was low, are in urgent need of reinstatement. These measures would be popular and fair. But, as all political leaders are aware, you don't mess with Big Oil.
During the 1999 Balkans war, some of the critics of Nato's intervention alleged that the western powers were seeking to secure a passage for oil from the Caspian sea. This claim was widely mocked. The foreign secretary Robin Cook observed that "there is no oil in Kosovo". This was, of course, true but irrelevant. An eminent commentator for this paper clinched his argument by recording that the Caspian sea is "half a continent away, lodged between Iran and Turkmenistan".
For the past few weeks, a freelance researcher called Keith Fisher has been doggedly documenting a project which has, as far as I can discover, has been little-reported in any British, European or American newspaper. It is called the Trans-Balkan pipeline, and it's due for approval at the end of next month. Its purpose is to secure a passage for oil from the Caspian sea.
The line will run from the Black sea port of Burgas to the Adriatic at Vlore, passing through Bulgaria, Macedonia and Albania. It is likely to become the main route to the west for the oil and gas now being extracted in central Asia. It will carry 750,000 barrels a day: a throughput, at current prices, of some $600m a month.
The project is necessary, according to a paper published by the US Trade and Development Agency last May, because the oil coming from the Caspian sea "will quickly surpass the safe capacity of the Bosphorus as a shipping lane". The scheme, the agency notes, will "provide a consistent source of crude oil to American refineries", "provide American companies with a key role in developing the vital east-west corridor", "advance the privatisation aspirations of the US government in the region" and "facilitate rapid integration" of the Balkans "with western Europe".
In November 1998, Bill Richardson, then US energy secretary, spelt out his policy on the extraction and transport of Caspian oil. "This is about America's energy security," he explained. "It's also about preventing strategic inroads by those who don't share our values. We're trying to move these newly independent countries toward the west.
"We would like to see them reliant on western commercial and political interests rather than going another way. We've made a substantial political investment in the Caspian, and it's very important to us that both the pipeline map and the politics come out right."
The project has been discussed for years. The US trade agency notes that the Trans-Balkan pipeline "will become a part of the region's critical east-west Corridor 8 infrastructure ... This transportation corridor was approved by the transport ministers of the European Union in April 1994". The pipeline itself, the agency says, has also been formally supported "since 1994". The first feasibility study, backed by the US, was conducted in 1996.
The pipeline does not pass through the former Yugoslavia, but there's no question that it featured prominently in Balkan war politics. On December 9 1998, the Albanian president attended a meeting about the scheme in Sofia, and linked it inextricably to Kosovo. "It is my personal opinion," he noted, "that no solution confined within Serbian borders will bring lasting peace." The message could scarcely have been blunter: if you want Albanian consent for the Trans-Balkan pipeline, you had better wrest Kosovo out of the hands of the Serbs.
In July 1993, a few months before the corridor project was first formally approved, the US sent peacekeeping troops to the Balkans. They were stationed not in the conflict zones in which civilians were being rounded up and killed, but on the northern borders of Macedonia. There were several good reasons for seeking to contain Serb expansionism, but we would be foolish to imagine that a putative $600m-a-month commercial operation did not number among them. The pipeline would have been impossible to finance while the Balkans were in turmoil.
I can't tell you that the war in the former Yugoslavia was fought solely in order to secure access to oil from new and biddable states in central Asia. But in the light of these findings, can anyone now claim that it was not?
Macedonia Fighting Hurts Investment
[LatelineNews: 2001-9-10] SKOPJE, Macedonia - They're only dots on a map. But for backers of a proposed pan-Balkan oil pipeline, the sketched out route represents something huge and historic: a chance to bring major foreign investment to one of Europe's most economically stagnant regions. The trouble is the pipeline plans - and other projects spanning the southern Balkans - pass through the heart of tormented Macedonia.
Macedonia was once regarded as the stable centerpiece for dreams of a modern communications, transportation and energy corridor stretching from Bulgaria's Black Sea coast to Albanian ports on the Adriatic.
Now it's the weak link. And few investors seem willing to assume the risks until a solid truce is reached between Macedonians and ethnic Albanians seeking greater minority rights.
``My phone hasn't rang for months with anyone interested in a project in Macedonia,'' said Ned Cabot, the regional director for the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, which helps American companies seeking overseas deals.
Not too long ago, it was quite different. In 1995 - as war roared in other parts of former Yugoslavia - the United States and other nations excitedly promoted the so-called Corridor 8.
Its backers envisioned transport links that would speed goods and fuel from the Black Sea region and central Asia to Albania, just across from Italy and the rest of wealthy western Europe.
A few stretches of Corridor 8 road and rail have been completed, but it still takes at least 30 hours by truck to make the 450-mile drive from the Black Sea to the Adriatic. Rail connections are hopelessly indirect. Plans for fiber optics and pipelines are gathering dust.
``Everything is basically on hold now,'' said Cabot.
It's something Macedonia cannot afford. It emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia as the poorest new nation - landlocked and dependent on neighbors for trade. Its economic footing has continually been undercut - first by a 1991-95 economic embargo by neighboring Greece, then by international sanctions and NATO warfare against Yugoslavia, a key trading partner.
Unemployment now approaches 40 percent. Per capita income stands at $3,800 a year - double Albania's but slightly lower than in Bulgaria.
The economic worry is so acute that Macedonia alienated giant China by forging diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1999 in exchange for aid pledges of up to $130 million. Macedonia reversed the decision in June, leaving the Vatican as Taiwan's sole diplomatic foothold in Europe.
Last week, Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski warned parliament that rejection of a peace agreement designed to end six months of ethnic conflict in Macedonia could completely choke off Western capital.
After the accord cleared its first test in parliament, the European Union immediately rewarded Macedonia with a $65 million reconstruction package. The United States, too, has held out the promise of more cash as the prize for stability. In 1999, Macedonia received $1.27 million in U.S. funds to improve its creaky railways as part of the Corridor 8 strategy.
But government largesse is easier than sealing deals with nervous private firms.
Proposals to privatize the Skopje airport operations and parts of the electricity sector interested U.S. firms, but plans are now on hold, Western officials said. In the EU, some food and retail companies have entered the small Macedonian market.
But the big deals have been limited.
In 1999, Greece's state-run Hellenic Petroleum began efforts to buy a majority stake in Macedonia's oil refinery OKTA. Last December, a consortium headed by Hungarian telecommunications firm Matav bought 51 percent of Macedonia's mobile telephone network.
Now, the prospect of greater ethnic Albanian political autonomy could add another wrinkle.
``Deals made with the central government may not fully apply to the ethnic Albanian zones. This means double the dealmaking and, possibly, double the corruption and kickbacks,'' said James Ker-Lindsay, a regional analyst at Syn SA, an Athens, Greece-based company that advises corporate clients on investment risks.
Still, there are those already looking past the turmoil.
Gligor Tashkovich, executive vice president of AMBO LLC, which is seeking to build the trans-Balkan oil pipeline, said he has met with ``both sides'' in Macedonia and is confident of the prospects for the $1.1 billion project.
AMBO's president, Ted Furguson, was formerly an executive for a subsidiary of Halliburton Co., which was led until last year by Vice President Dick Cheney.
``Oil companies work in far more unstable areas of the world than Macedonia,'' said Tashkovich. ``You think of Angola. You think of Indonesia. You think of Chechnya. What's going on in Macedonia is nothing compared with what these places have experienced.''
Could it be that the whole superhighway from the Caspian Basin to Europe dream was overhyped. If so, NATO's support of the KLA mafia support was a wasted effort, considering the eventual blowback and cleanup tasks. This may be enough to allow the Bourgas – Alexandrupolis pipeline to win out over AMBO as the route for Chevron oil to the U.S. Ditto for the Baku-Ceyhan pipedream route if Turkey continues the downward spiral with a little help from the War drums over Iraq.
Speaking of ENI and Turkey, ENI recently announced a medium sized gas find off Silicy (9-13 billion cubic meter). Does this delay the Turkey-Greece-Italy gas pipeline dream, and if so what will Turkey do with all the take-or-pay gas from Bluestream (Russia/ENI) and Iraq?
In closing, what happened to Black Jade? He really had a good understanding of the geopolitics of the upcoming resource wars.
These companies have strategies and motives not only to extract, but to have others not extract.
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