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If you think that the Bush administration has problems in Latin America with the latest crises in Argentina, Colombia and Venezuela, think about what it may face if Brazil's leftist candidate Luiz Inacio ''Lula'' da Silva wins this year's presidential elections in the region's biggest country.

Having lived in Brazil for two years, I know that Lula is running once again as the candidate of a popular front which includes not only his own Workers' Party, but the two Brazilian Communist parties as well. He is the Communist front candidate and he is the leading contender favored to win the Presidency of Brazil in October.

For starters, a Brazilian move to the left could pave the way for a South American nationalist-populist bloc -- that could also include Venezuela and Argentina...Conceivably, the new ''globaphobic'' bloc could strengthen ties with Cuba, and with Colombia's Marxist guerrillas.

This is the real danger, an alliance of Communist nations in the Western Hemisphere which includes not only Cuba andVenezeula, but also Brazil and Columbia. From there, the rest of Latin America, beginning with Panama and Nicaragua could fall like a series of dominoes to the Castro's Communist revolutions. Losing Brazil to the Communists would be a loss that the US could not recover from anytime soon. It would force us to retool our entire foreign policy and change our main focus from the Eurasian subcontinent to Latin America with a concomittant redeployment of forces to the South American theater of operations (SOCOM).

But now, a growing minority of influential Brazil watchers in Washington says things may change. There are several reasons why he has a good chance of winning the Oct. 6 primary election and has an even chance to win a possible second-round election scheduled for Oct. 27, they say... Second, in a runoff election Lula would probably win the leftist votes that in the latest polls have gone to Garotinho, and center-leftist candidate Ciro Gomes... Third...There is so much bad blood between the two sides that the government coalition may be beyond repair...

These are the two factors in this race which make a Lula Communist front presidential victory much more likely than during the last 3 elections, which he nearly one. The non-Communist government led opposition is heavily divided and the supporters of two other leftist presidential candidate could put him over the top in the presidential runoff.

Fourth, while Lula continues to make pilgrimages to Cuba...Two former top State Department officials told me in separate interviews this week that a Lula victory would not necessarily lead to radical changes in Brazil, or in South America...

Sure, I guess strengthening ties with Communist Cuba and the Communist FARC guerillas fighting to conquer Columbia do not constitute radical foreign policy changes for Brazil in the eyes of Foggy Bottom's "expert" braniacs and the DIA briefers who briefed me on my OSD trip to Brazilia last month.

But because of Brazil's weight in the region, a Lula victory would change Latin America's political map, and the Bush administration's headaches will multiply.