Posted on 04/03/2002 9:57:45 AM PST by cogitator
Effects of Climate Warming Already in Evidence
WASHINGTON, DC, March 29, 2002 (ENS) - Ecosystems around the globe are showing the effects of climate warming. Earlier arrival of migrant birds, earlier appearance of butterflies, earlier spawning in amphibians, earlier flowering of plants - spring has been coming sooner every year since the 1960s, researchers reported Wednesday.
The report from German scientists investigates all regions of the globe. They predict some species will vanish because they cannot expand into new areas when their native climate heats up.
"Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible," write Gian-Reto Walther of the University of Hanover, Germany, and colleagues in this week's issue of the journal "Nature."
After reviewing changes in various animal and plant populations over the past 30 years of warming at the end of the 20th century, the authors found "a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems" from the poles to the equatorial seas.
"There is now ample evidence that these recent climatic changes have affected a broad range of organisms with diverse geographical distributions," Walther and his team report.
"The implications of such large scale, consistent responses to relatively low average rates of climate change are large," the researchers warn, adding that, "the projected warming for the coming decades raises even more concern about its ecological and socio-economic consequences."
The Earth's climate has warmed by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the past 100 years, the researchers note. Starting around 1976, the rate of global warming more than doubled, changing faster than at any other time during the last 1,000 years.
However, average global climate has far less effect on local ecosystems than do local and regional climate changes.
The reproduction of amphibians and reptiles is disrupted by changes in temperature and humidity. In painted turtles, the ration of male to female offspring is related to the mean July temperature, said Walther, and the production of male offspring could be compromised even by modest temperature increases.
In the polar regions, winter freezes are now occurring later and ending earlier, leading to a 10 percent decrease in snow and ice cover since the late 1960s.
These dramatic local changes are having equally dramatic effects on cold weather species such as penguins, seals and polar bears, the researchers found.
Miniscule Southern Ocean crustaceans called krill, a key food source for higher predators such as penguins and other seabirds, whales, seals, as well as a fishery target, are being influenced by climate change. Walther's team found the warming climate is affecting the reproductive grounds of krill by reducing the area of sea ice formed near the Antarctic Peninsula, which leads to both food web and human economic consequences.
Rapid environmental warming has been reported over the last 30 to 50 years at a number of stations in the Antarctic, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula region and on sub-Antarctic islands, along with changes in precipitation patterns.
Likewise, tropical oceans have increased in temperature by up to eight degrees Celsius over the past 100 years, the research team has found, triggering widespread coral bleaching.
Climate linked invasions of warm weather species into traditionally colder areas includes the immigration of unwanted neighbors - epidemic diseases. "There is much evidence that a steady rise in annual temperatures has been associated with expanding mosquito borne diseases in the highlands of Asia, East Africa and Latin America," the study says.
Geographical differences are evident for both plants and birds, with delayed rather than earlier onset of spring phases in southeastern Europe, including later bird arrival in the Slovak Republic, and a later start of the growing season in the Balkan region, the team has found.
Later onset of autumn changes were recorded, too, but these shifts are less pronounced and show a more variable pattern. In Europe, for example, the length of the growing season has increased in some areas by up to 3.6 days per decade over the past 50 years.
Overall, Walther's team reports, "trends of range changes show remarkable internal consistency between studies relating to glaciers, plant and insect ranges and shifting isotherms," which are lines of constant temperature.
The study concludes that based on the evidence "only 30 years of warmer temperatures at the end of the 20th century have affected the phenology [timing of seasonal activities] of organisms, the range and distribution of species, and the composition and dynamics of communities."
Will you please read the links I am so politely offering to you? Your criticism is outdated. Furthermore, Hansen is doing a fine job of truly examining both climate and emissions trends and coming up with answers that aren't nearly as frightening as those being touted by global warming scaremongers. Which doesn't make him a friend to such extremists. And for that reason, and a record of honesty in the face of pressure from three successive presidential administrations (during which each time he presented results contrary to their policy positions; the previous Bush Administration even altered his testimony to Congress), I think he's an excellent source. So does Patrick Michaels.
I'm interested in your comments on the proposed use of jet fuel additives to introduce particulates into the upper atmosphere to partially block solar radiation as a mean of controlling warming. At an estimated cost of $100 million per year, it is by far the cheapest method.
Your solution isn't politically correct -- it doesn't attack the United States or capitalism, and it actually places partial blame on a communist country. The Left, the UN, and the press will never go for it.
Climate change is a natural ocurrance, and has happened millions of times in the course of this planets' geological history.
Innumerable species have survived such climate changes, as evidenced by their existance today.
Change is inevitable, and those species that adapt to change survive.
That does seem a bit early. I vacationed in Phoenix in spring of 1995 just before Memorial Day, and that year they were remarking on how temperatures hadn't broken 100 yet. It was pretty reasonable then.
I don't know that I buy global warming. The same people forty years ago were predicting global freezing. And if there is, I don't know that I buy that it's caused by human beings. And even if it is, I can't say that it would be a bad thing. So, it is quite probable the correct remedy is to do nothing. 
I'm generally opposed to technological fixes that are implemented while underlying problems aren't fixed. That's why I favor controls on black soot emissions: a likely measurable effect on warming and a simultaneous health benefit.
Plus, there would have to be some good pilot-project (no pun intended) research on this idea to prove that it works and doesn't cause unintended bad environmental consequences. But I don't think the idea should be dismissed out of hand. I also don't think we're at a stage where it's necessary. I may think differently in 20 years.
Solar variability is a natural cycle. As for evidence, I only assess what scientists are analyzing. There is a general concurrence that some of the observed warming is human-caused. That conclusion is based on models of what would happen if we weren't burning fossil fuels for energy compared to what we are doing. It's called "attribution".
There is no doubt that there are natural cycles that cause warming and cooling. That's what makes attribution difficult, separating the natural from the man-made. The current conclusion is that some of the observed warming is attributable to human activities.
By the way, there's also no doubt that increased atmospheric CO2 maintains higher global temperatures. The initial increase in global temperature may have a different cause, and the increase has climate effects that lead to higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Once in the atmosphere, the CO2 acts to maintain those higher temperatures, like a thermostat, until another climate effect causes temperatures to come back down. This is a basic statement of what paleoclimatological studies have determined. If you want more detail, ask and I'll try to help.
A: His lips are moving.
There is overwhelming evidence that this world is rapidly advancing into an ice age, and the pagan fools continue to scream about warming. - I'd do the things that the fools say cause warming, but unfortunately, they are really the cause of some of the cooling.
There must be some frost impeding the operation of your thermometer. - We frequently have such temperatures in the inland bay area, and we're 500 miles north of you and a couple of thousand feet lower in elevation. - Back in the 50's it would hit 120 F. in Walnut Creek at least 4 or 5 times per year; now it never makes it that high.
BECAUSE THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES DECREASED FROM THE LATE 1930's ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EARLY 1980's ....
More "scientific garbage as lies" from the liberals.
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