Chaos in Illinois: The race for governor

National Review Online ^ | March 22, 2002 | Joel Mowbray

[xsysmgr]

t a packed "Unity Lunch" in Chicago the day after the Illinois primary election, hundreds of Republicans gathered for the mandatory group hug, where all the candidates who had just spent months savaging each other are suddenly expected to profess a profound admiration for one another. All eyes were looking to the head table, where the combatants from the gubernatorial race were supposed to break bread and sing Kumbaya.

Not one of the three GOP candidates who ran for governor attended the lunch, a first since the advent of this post-election ritual. Primary winner Attorney General Jim Ryan made a brief appearance for the cameras, but hurried off before the festivities got underway rather than sit between two empty chairs. Neither of his opponents paid even a brief visit to congratulate him, and there will likely be no endorsement from either losing candidate.

After a 26-year lock on the governor's mansion in Illinois, the state Republican party is in disarray. Ironically, despite an unpopular Republican incumbent who is mired in a scandal that has produced 45 indictments and 42 convictions for his former employees, GOP prospects for winning the top post looked bright until the last weeks before the primary.

In a divisive three-way contest on Tuesday, Ryan beat back liberal Lt. Governor Corinne Wood and conservative state Sen. Patrick O'Malley, but he is undeniably wounded from an unrelenting series of assaults.

Although underdog challengers often attack the leader in unison, Wood and O'Malley formed a rather bizarre tag-team approach to bashing Ryan, one punching from the left, the other from the right. The only similarity between these disparate candidates is that both are largely self-funded-they spent a combined $8 million in personal money-and wildly self-important, even compared to most other politicians. Both also ran primarily on abortion, Wood as a staunch defender of abortion rights, and O'Malley as a steadfast pro-lifer.

In talking with Republican insiders in the state capital of Springfield, a portrait of Wood as a bumbling politician with terrible instincts emerges. Her political skills, or lack thereof, leave a lot to be desired. According to several sources, Wood regularly forgets very important people, such as powerful lobbyists and personal friends of current Gov. George Ryan (no relation). One very well-known Republican strategist and friend of Gov. Ryan has met Wood more than three dozen times, including at small dinner events, yet she cluelessly introduces herself each time as if it is the first time the two have met.

Wood's campaign strategy reflected her political ineptness. She effectively alienated every core Republican constituency, leaving many to wonder why she chose to run in the GOP primary. "We're all scratching our heads that she chose to run in the Republican party," says veteran political consultant Larry Hoffman. "In Republican primaries in Illinois," he notes, "conservatives do a lot better than moderates-and she ran as a liberal."

Early on, Wood made abortion rights the centerpiece of her campaign, a curious strategy to say the least. Although Illinois is somewhat left-of-center, and moving further to the left in recent presidential contests, it is not known as a bastion of abortion activism, least of all among GOP primary voters. Hoffman succinctly expresses the sentiment of many Illinois Republicans when he says, "You wonder how in the heck she dreamt it up. I can't imagine what she was thinking."

Wood defiantly ran to the left of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates by recruiting feminist icon Gloria Steinem to campaign for her in the last week before the election. Steinem recorded a voice message that was delivered by an automated telephone system to 80,000 "hard D's," or solid Democrats, urging them to vote in the Republican primary for Wood. This ploy was not a last desperate act; it followed supposedly independent ads aired several months ago by Planned Parenthood trashing Ryan on his abortion record.

Aside from the long history of Democrats rarely voting in Republican primaries in Illinois, Wood's plan had an Achilles' heel: There was a fiercely competitive, three-way Democratic primary. With three true liberals in the Democratic field, Democratic voters had no need to back Wood in her primary fight.

While Wood was busy futilely courting Democrats, O'Malley actually worked to win over traditional Republicans. He ran as the "true conservative" in the race, but he eventually failed to distinguish himself from Ryan, who has long been popular with conservatives. O'Malley had little reason to be in the campaign, and never managed to articulate one. Although he is a wealthy lawyer, O'Malley ran as an unabashed social conservative in a state where fire-and-brimstone doesn't play well. He repeatedly told church audiences that he was on a "holy crusade" to protect the unborn, proclaiming himself a true descendent of the likes of Martin Luther King Jr., and Abraham Lincoln.

O'Malley's message didn't even catch on with pro-life voters because Ryan is also pro-life. They both would allow exceptions to save the life of the mother, but Ryan would also allow abortions in cases of rape and incest. But in a world with Roe v. Wade, such a distinction is purely academic.

In the '90s, a string of wealthy conservative upstarts knocked off establishment moderates in primary battles, most recently with now-Sen. Peter Fitzgerald toppling the sitting comptroller, Loleta Didrickson. But since Ryan was the first candidate to announce, he picked up most of the establishment and activist support early, locking in the conservative base tapped by Fitzgerald and others.

Unlike most losing candidates who concede graciously and pledge support for the winner, O'Malley has vowed to do whatever he can to help defeat Ryan in November. This is in keeping with his reputation as a loner and an ideological purist. Says one senior Republican staffer who works for an Illinois congressman, "O'Malley takes policy differences very personally, and he holds grudges against other conservatives, even on minor squabbles."

Given that Wood and O'Malley were diametrically opposed on the central issue for each-abortion, logic would seem to dictate that they would rule out supporting each other. But in this unusual primary, the "odd couple" declared at the last debate that each would support the other over Ryan. O'Malley and Wood may have merely joined forces out of contempt for Ryan, but it hurt their credibility among core backers.

With final results in, Ryan soundly defeated his opponents, garnering 44 percent of the vote, to O'Malley's 29 percent, with Wood bringing up the rear at 26 percent. This victory is not as good as it appears, however, as Ryan was at 50 percent in the election-eve polls, meaning that the undecideds, and even some of Ryan's supporters, broke for the odd couple in the voting booth. The silver lining, of course, is that roughly three-fourths of the voters picked one of the conservative candidates.

Whether or not Ryan is able to pull together a winning coalition for November remains an open question. Regardless of O'Malley's non-endorsement, it's not likely that those who voted for him would shun a pro-life, pro-gun politician with a long conservative track record. Ryan's biggest struggle will be wooing suburban women who backed Wood.

In his acceptance speech late Tuesday night, the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Rod Blagojevich pounced on Republican fissures, exclaiming that "fellow Republicans have it right" that Ryan cannot be trusted.

Ryan faces an uphill struggle this fall, particularly with a state party that he himself admits is "in chaos."

[SusanUSA]

Ping

[Pistias]

What an option. Blagojevich or Ryan. I love the two-party system.

[Roman33]

Wow. This article is for real! Here It is Friday, March 22, and the primary is over and just an hour ago I saw a Nasty attack ad against Ryan asking people to support Patrick O'Malley for gov.

[xsysmgr]

...Nasty attack ad against Ryan asking people to support Patrick O'Malley for gov.

Is O'Malley now running as an independent?

[Endeavor]

There is no question. It's Ryan every time.

[GraniteStateConservative]

...O'Malley has vowed to do whatever he can to help defeat Ryan in November. This is in keeping with his reputation as a loner and an ideological purist.

Hey, he must be a FReeper. I bet he voted for Howard Phillips for President-- along with 56 other people in the state. Message received, O'Malley!

[IncPen]

While Wood was busy futilely courting Democrats, O'Malley actually worked to win over traditional Republicans.

Let the record show that Corrine Wood wasn't just benignly courting Democrats.

She had 'author' Scott Turow on camera saying "Vote for Corrine in the Primary, and vote whoever you want in November".

The gist of this was that Wood, because she wasn't slated by the party, sought to destroy it and Ryan (George, the corrupt current Governor and Jim - no relation- the GOP choice for November).

Corrine Wood is finished in Illinois, and she's probably done more damage than any Democrat could have hoped for.

[John Farson]

but [O'Malley] eventually failed to distinguish himself from Ryan, who has long been popular with conservatives.

The author doesn't know what he is talking about. Jim Ryan is a anti-gunner.

[BillyBoy]

>> The author doesn't know what he is talking about. Jim Ryan is a anti-gunner.

Obviously. Sounds like this guy has been analyzing the Governor's race in Illinois from wire reports or something. He got his facts wrong on several occassions and obviously doesn't live here. The only really "on the nose" part of the article was Corruption Wood trying to use the abortion issue in the GOP primary as if she were in a primary against Dianne Feinstein for the U.S. Senator or something. Wrong party, wrong state, Corrine.

Other than that, let me correct some of the many errors in this little ditsy:

>> Ironically, despite an unpopular Republican incumbent who is mired in a scandal that has produced 45 indictments and 42 convictions for his former employees, GOP prospects for winning the top post looked bright until the last weeks before the primary. <<

The odds of the GOP retainly the governor's mansion look about 50-50 BECAUSE (and NOT "despite") George Ryan did everything he could to ruin "his" own party. He and Daley have managed to screw just about every major Republican agenda and official in this state. The chances of the Republican nominee winning the election INCREASED last week only because Blagojevic won the DEM primary instead of Vallas. Vallas was beloved by "soccer moms" in the suburbs and probably would have beat Ryan. In any case, Ryan was a weak candidate and the GOP establishment will finalize realize this now that the primary is over.

>> O'Malley had little reason to be in the campaign, and never managed to articulate one. <<

O'Malley was the FIRST person in EITHER party to be in the campaign, and he did so for a clear, obvious reason: no one had the SPINE to stand up to the INCUMBANT governor's "agenda" and promise to change things. At that time, officials in Illinois had no way of knowing whether or not George would run again. After George decided to "retire", the Jim Ryan supporters decided it was now "safe" to repudiate Ryan, so they took a page from O'Malley's playbook and used it more sucessfully in the primary.

>> O'Malley's message didn't even catch on with pro-life voters because Ryan is also pro-life. They both would allow exceptions to save the life of the mother, but Ryan would also allow abortions in cases of rape and incest. But in a world with Roe v. Wade, such a distinction is purely academic.

Actually, BOTH Ryan and O'Malley have previous stated they are "opposed" to abortion in the cases of rape or incest. There was no difference in their "offical" statements. The difference was a matter of ACTIVISM on the issue. O'Malley has written all the major pro-life legislation in this state and has relentlessly campaigned and spokenout against pro-abortion initiatives like those at Christ Hospital. Ryan sat on the back burner and gave lip service on these issues from his desk, but didn't DO anything about it. THAT was O'Malley's card in the primary. Unfortunately, most pro-lifers in Illinois seem to take whoever the most "popular" candidate is. That's how they ended up with SCUM George Ryan.

>> But since Ryan was the first candidate to announce, he picked up most of the establishment and activist support early, locking in the conservative base tapped by Fitzgerald and others.

Ryan was NOT the first candidate to announce. In fact, he said George Ryan was a "great Governor" and that he "wouldn't run if George wants too". O'Malley said he doesn't care WHO runs, as of summer 2001 he was in the race for governor. Furthermore, Jim Ryan got the endorsement of all the moderate statewide officials-- missing from that list was Senator Fitzgerald-- the guy who complained in the FIRST place that no one was standing up to George Ryan. Jim Ryan and Pat O'Malley SPLIT the conservative vote-- a fairly obviously fact since O'Malley got 30% of the primary vote. What Jim Ryan got was the MODERATE, status quo GOP vote as well, and so he won the primary.

>> O'Malley has vowed to do whatever he can to help defeat Ryan in November. This is in keeping with his reputation as a loner and an ideological purist. <<

Bull. Pat O'Malley is NOT Pat Buchanan. Pat O'Malley has CLEARLY stated there is NO WAY he will run as an independant in the general election, or try IN ANY WAY to campaign against Ryan. In fact, he said he has no reason why he would do so. What he DID say is he has no reason to campaign FOR Ryan either-- and he doesn't. Jim Ryan refused to tell people where he stood during the primary and we're hoping for his sake that he doesn't try this in the genearl election because he'll lose. Pat O'Malley is a lifelong Republicans and remains one. He has supported and applauded many "moderates" from Jim Edgar to George W. Bush. What he does not support is CORRUPT LIBERAL SCUM like George Ryan. Like Pat said "the Republican Party didn't leave George Ryan, George Ryan left the Republican Party"

>> Says one senior Republican staffer who works for an Illinois congressman, "O'Malley takes policy differences very personally, and he holds grudges against other conservatives, even on minor squabbles." <<

And who is this Republican staffer? He must have missed the 38 pieces of legislation O'Malley co-sponcered with the DEMOCRAT house members in his district, or all the DEMOCRAT mayors who endorsed him-- let alone "moderate" Republicans who suppot him. If Pat acted like that, he'd never win in his district because it is anything BUT "very right wing". O'Malley is a stauch conservative but he knows how to get things done.

>> This victory is not as good as it appears, however, as Ryan was at 50 percent in the election-eve polls, meaning that the undecideds, and even some of Ryan's supporters, broke for the odd couple in the voting booth. The silver lining, of course, is that roughly three-fourths of the voters picked one of the conservative candidates.

Seems these facts just proved my points about conservatives and Jim Ryan. Is Jim Ryan a liberal? No. Is he a strong, honest, good candidate? Not yet, at least.

>> Whether or not Ryan is able to pull together a winning coalition for November remains an open question. Regardless of O'Malley's non-endorsement, it's not likely that those who voted for him would shun a pro-life, pro-gun politician with a long conservative track record.

Jim Ryan is now pro-gun after supporting all kinds of new gun laws and stricter regulations for 8 years? Oh, I must have missed the announcement he was doing 180o. Silly me. < /sarcasm>

And "long conservative track record"? Well, while he's NOT George Ryan and the primary's over...there's still all the "KIDCARE" deals with Jesse Jackson and his support of "gay rights", and... well, I guess I better stick with the 11th commendment and not bring up the rest. But let's just say his "track record" has a lot of holes. Hence 55% of the Republicans didn't vote for him in the primary, eh?

>> Ryan's biggest struggle will be wooing suburban women who backed Wood.

They were liberal Democrats voting in the Republican primary to ensure a "pro-choice Governor in November". Forget it, Jim. His biggest struggle will be with INDEPEDANT suburban votes who DID NOT VOTE in the primary. Especially Cook County suburbs.

>> Ryan faces an uphill struggle this fall, particularly with a state party that he himself admits is "in chaos."

Remember the AFTERMATH of the "bitter" Bush-McCain-Keyes primary? Wasn't pretty, was it? And you guys think this is unique to Illinois. Bush is "upset" O'Malley won't endorse Ryan....time to remember how easy it was to "woo" McCain and Keyes' endorsements after Bush won the nomination on Super Tuesday.

[Barnacle]

One very well-known Republican strategist and friend of Gov. Ryan has met Wood more than three dozen times, including at small dinner events, yet she cluelessly introduces herself each time as if it is the first time the two have met.

She's a ditz. But a vicious ditz at that.

[Barnacle]

What are you talking about? Are you trying to tell us that O'Malley is still running? I heard that was not possible due to a "sore loser" law in Illinois.

[Barnacle]

Nice analysis and write-up.

[usconservative]

Wood's campaign strategy reflected her political ineptness. She effectively alienated every core Republican constituency, leaving many to wonder why she chose to run in the GOP primary. "We're all scratching our heads that she chose to run in the Republican party," says veteran political consultant Larry Hoffman. "In Republican primaries in Illinois," he notes, "conservatives do a lot better than moderates-and she ran as a liberal."

She did more than "run" as a liberal - she is a liberal! Corinne Wood's entire campaign was focused on "choice." She figured since she was running against one stringently pro-life candidate (O'Malley) and one "allegedly" pro-life candidate (Jim Ryan) she was going to court the woman vote and focus on CHOICE.

The problem for Wood was two-fold. First, the "choice" issue didn't resonate well with suburban soccer sucker mom's. Wood's over-emphasis at being the only "pro-abortion" candidate in the Republican primaries turned out to be a major turn off, notably to Republican women in the state.

The second problem for Wood, was that once her campaign relized she wasn't resonating with Republican Women, she switched tactics and openly courted the DemocRAT cross-over vote. Every radio and TV ad that Wood ran post Sept. 30th emphasised ABORTION RIGHTS and told Democrats effectively that by crossing over and voting for her, they weren't jeopardizing their party registration.

On top of that, the DemocRAT primaries really heated up in the remaining month of the campaign, and any chance Wood had at courting cross-over votes literally vanished before her eyes. Paul Vallas came on VERY strong in the closing three weeks of the election and came close to beating Rod Blowhardovitch in the Democrat primary. Turnout in the Democrat primary was HUGE, dwarfing the turnout of the Republican primary. This is yet another indication that Republican's are in trouble come November.

Ryan's specific problems in getting his Republican primary opponents to endorse him now carries some special problems.

First, Ryan refused to stand up for LIFE, and back-peddled away from his previous pro-life stance. He was downright apologetic during the campaign in numerous appearances for being pro-life. Corinne Wood pinned Ryan in a corner in several public debates, forcing Ryan to apologize for being against abortion. This turned off the Conservative base towards Ryan.

Second, O'Malley hammered away on Ryan for failing to investigate statewide corruption, notably in the "licenses for bribes" scandal that rocked the Secretary of State's office 4 years ago, and is the main reason George Ryan isn't running for re-election. O'Malley is also *pissed* at Ryan's dissing of the Conservative wing of the party by backing away from Ryan's "alleged" pro-life stance.

If Jim Ryan manages to get *either* Corinne Wood or Pat O'Malley to endorse him, it's going to be a major political victory for him, and a miracle. Frankly, I don't see it happening. Many pro-life Conservatives in this state are already talking about sitting out the Governor's race in November. Those sentiments are bolstered by a recent (yesterday?) poll by the Chicago Sun Times which shows Rod Blowhardovitch with a commanding 18-20 point lead in the Governor's race.

Jim Ryan's in big trouble, and unless he comes back to the Conservative wing of the party and makes amends, he's going to be looking for employment come November.

Bank on it.

[usconservative]

Wow. This article is for real! Here It is Friday, March 22, and the primary is over and just an hour ago I saw a Nasty attack ad against Ryan asking people to support Patrick O'Malley for gov.

O'Malley cannot run for Governor in 2002 under a different party label. Illinois has what's commonly referred to as the "sore loser law" which means once a candidate runs in a primary for office, under a party label and LOSES, that candidate is in-elegible for that office in that election cycle.

I really wish people would stop propagating the myth that O'Malley is still running for governor, when legally he cannot.

[usconservative]

While Wood was busy futilely courting Democrats, O'Malley actually worked to win over traditional Republicans. He ran as the "true conservative" in the race, but he eventually failed to distinguish himself from Ryan, who has long been popular with conservatives.

Jim Ryan is as popular with Conservatives in this state as Corinne Wood is. Ryan got a plurality of the vote, not a MAJORITY.

To say there is no difference between Jim Ryan and Pat O'Malley is but one indication that the writer of the article made no attempt other than to take a cursory, surface view of the two candidates. O'Malley is unabashedly pro-life. Jim Ryan "apologised" numerous times for being so.

Jim Ryan's anti-business litigation in joining the feds in the litigation against Microsoft drew no support from O'Malley.

And that's just for starters.

[usconservative]

Is Jim Ryan a liberal? No. Is he a strong, honest, good candidate? Not yet, at least.

And I doubt Jim Ryan ever will be. Look, since his prosecution of the Rolando Cruz case, and his refusal to admit that Cruz was indeed innocent after putting him on death row, and Cruz coming within a few hours of being executed TWICE, Jim Ryan has shown absolutely no compassion or remorse for putting an innocent man in jail, and nearly killing him. Instead, Jim Ryan issued statement after statement insisting that Cruz was guilty EVEN AFTER DNA testing and a recanting witness cleared Cruz.

Ryan as a pro-gun candidate? DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH!! Ryan as a pro-life candiate? DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH!!!!

The man can't even admit he was wrong on a life and death case. He couldn't because he built much of his political career on the Rolando Cruz case, which was a sham. How soon people of this state forget.

As for the rest of your brilliant (and I mean that in the most complimentary of terms) analysis, SPOT ON!!

[Dan from Michigan]

Always good to hear the real story.

We don't have a primary till August. After that, there is only 3 months till the November election. Posthumus is our man. John Schwarz isn't even getting off the ground and may not even make the ballot(GOOD). That's good and bad. Good that he isn't going to get hit from the left. Bad that he won't be tested in a statewide race from Granholm or Blanchard before the race heats up.

[Dan from Michigan]

Oh man. I'm not a Ryan fan at all, but conservatives are going to sit out for ROD BLAGOJEVICH of all people? That's how bad it is??

I'd even vote for Wood, whom I would despise if I lived in IL over that guy.

The saddest part of sitting out is that if the conservatives do that, then the GOP gets killed down the ticket as well, and those toss up seats go Dem in congress. That's what so many people don't understand when they sit out an election.

If I can't bring myself to vote for anyone on the pres or governor ticket, I'll still vote for the congressional, state reps, and state senate seats. It doesn't make sense to sit out and punish Congressman Mike Rogers who is doing a good job, for what Joe Governor is doing.

[usconservative]

Let me clarify:

there's a Senate seat up for grabs in Illinois, ironically it'll be Republican Candidate Durkin vs. Democrat incumbent Durbin. That's a race I'll be sure to vote in.

When I say sit out a race (as in the Governor's race) it means I'll skip that part of the ballot. That doesn't mean I'll sit out the entire election.