You are not the only one who senses the danger. I would make Sanchez the favorite right now. Perry has shown no signs that he understands the quandary he is in. He has not reached out to the grassroots conservatives that he offended by signing the Hate Crimes bill last year.
He endorsed a Supreme Court nominee that was beaten in the primary. His appointment to the SBOE Chair, Grace Shore, was beaten like a drum by a Christian conservative candidate inexperienced in politics. Though I was happy to see these things happen personally, it bodes ill for Perry.
I certainly hope I'm wrong ---and I could be because I live in one of the Hispanic counties so I admit I don't see the rest of Texas much but I don't see how Perry will win.