[Nebullis]

I think Li is talking about the probability of fixation which is equal to the frequency. When the mutation is fixed then the frequency of the allele in the population is 1 or 0, depending on which allele became homozygous.

[maro]

Assuming that's so, I don't see the relevance. It's the a priori probability we're interested in, no? Let's say that a thousand people try to break the bank at Monte Carlo, come hell or high water. With that assumption, the wealth states of these folks might plausibly be predicted to 1 or 0 eventually, where 1 represents the bank. That doesn't change the (daunting) a priori odds of breaking the bank at Monte Carlo.