The Syrians loudly proclaimed to the world it was not about water, it was about territorial rights, and honor (pay no attention to the reservoir being built just over the hill) When the Syrians saw the Jews were actually willing to deal they threw in "repatriations" of having part of the shore line of the Sea of Galilee, all the while protesting loudly that they had no desire to use the shoreline access to pump the sea dry.
And the Golan "deal"? Brilliant. He magnanimously offered to not only withdraw to the 1967 lines but to withdraw to the 1948 lines. That was the poison pill. For the 1948 lines gave control of the headwaters of the Jordan river to Israel, where they belong. The 1967 lines cut Israel off from its biggest water source. That is death in the dessert. Baraks "magnanimous" offer exposed the Syrians for the scheming liars they are. The Syrians threw up their hands in disgust having lost much face and walked out. Barak bought a year as the Arab League waited with baited breath to see if the Jews could be talked into death by thirst. And the clock ticked on...
Next move was the Give away half of Jerusalem and most of the land Jordan captured during the 48 war. That one scared me. If Arafat had just said yes, he could have divided the city, cut off the main roads and build bunkers everywhere. Then he could have thrown his "Intifadda" whining about how he could not control his people, the were so angry with the lousey deal he made for only 97 percent of what they demanded.
But Arafat got greedy, sensing weakness he went for the kill, and shot himself in the foot. I think Barak was betting on the pronouncement by the doctors that Arafat has a debilitating disease, ole squatty is not long for this world and getting weaker. Squatty wants to be another Salidin, the hero to capture Jerusalem for Islam. It was not only Clintoon searching for a legacy. He moved too fast. And it bought time. Again the Arab League has been walking the tightrope seeing the weak response's and hoping that Israel would crumble under the pressure.
Meanwhile my guess is that Sharon and Barak got together and set up the temple mount thing just to expose Arafat's treaties as lies. The Jews under reacted, showing incredible restraint and the Arabs over reacted. And it is buying time. The Arab League has been seeing the Jews take it in the teeth for far longer than they could ever handle it. They underestmate the Jews, by judging by their own standards. And they fear the Jews, for they have had their hands handed to them on a platter far to many times. Even at 10 to one odds they get trashed. They are not in a hurry to commit with America breathing over their shoulder. If America will fight Iraq to save Moslems, they will fight Iraq to save Jews.
What is the time for? My guess is deployment of the THEL anti-missile laser systems and the Arrow anti-ballistic missile systems. Both were developed at double time on Baraks watch with America's help. The US gets to field Aircraft mounted ones vastly improving our homeland defence and Israel, who has far less of a budget gets to park them on the dirt and shoot. I figure because of the production delays this intifadda has been forced to drag on. Once deployed the IDF will quietly say checkmate to Syria, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Egypt, all of which have threatened to mass missile Israel with chem and bio warheads in a concerted attack. And then Israel will clean the Palistinian Authority's clock.
Also keep in mind one does not win wars without air superiority in the modern theater. If a THEL can line-of-sight take out a supersonic missile, what chance does a F16 or a Mig have? The worlds most sophisticated Surface to air system is being set up as we speak. Time is almost up.
It has been a very gutsy game, taking more guts than I have. Hats off to Israel. This has been a real white knuckler. Lucky for Israel, the Arab League is a bunch of knuckleheads. They could have won with Chem and Bio, but they waited for the magic wand and lost. (At least I hope so -grin-)
This is all speculation on my part, I have nothing to do with either the American government or Israel's government so take what I say or leave it. If I am right it is too late for Arafat to change the train that is coming at him, if I am wrong, perhaps it will give ole Squatty something to sweat about.
Unfortunately, I believe you're right.
I have bad news for Americans who are thoughtful enough to wonder whether we should be taking sides in this conflict. Israel is losing. Not because they are being defeated by the terrorists, but because they are defeating themselves with their own inept management of the conflict, which flip-flops between appeasement and war at every turn. Today it is war. Tomorrow Arafat will be a statesman again.
When in history has an ethnic minority been able to keep an ethnic majority under its control with weaponry and violence? Certainly, majorities can pull such a thing off against minorities (i.e., the Kurds, the Tibetans, the American Indian). But if you take together Israel and the occupied territories, the Jews are in the clear minority. They will be a minority in Israel proper before very long. Their position is clearly unsustainable, whether they have the moral high ground or not.
There is growing discontent in Israel about Sharon's handling of the war; whereas there is almost no opposition among Palestinians, even Palestinian Christians, to terrorism against Israel. Among the Palestinian population, there is a virtual limitless supply of young people willing to blow themselves up, a tactic against which all the missiles and jets in the world are going to be futile.
In the war fever engulfing the region, no one is thinking creatively. All I read here are biblical justifications for genocide and ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. You all want to kill, kill, kill based on nothing more than religion and ethnicity, which makes you no better than your enemy. Why does no one ask fundamental questions about Israeli intolerance and exclusion for four decades and whether it has contributed to the enemy's cause?
A great American cartoonist (now dead) had a comic strip character named Pogo, who once stated "We have met the enemy and he is us." I am reminded of it as I observe both sides in this senseless conflict. Both the Palestinians and the Israelis are their own worst enemies.
America's best course is to get out of the way, maintain a posture as an honest broker in the event the sides come to their senses, or else wait and see which side self-destructs first.
I hope and pray that your analysis is on the mark, I think it very well could be.
I even have more respect for Barak now.
Jen
Was reading some Janes defence articles..and gleaned fragments from other sources.
Israel has quietly converted the MLRS missile launchers to handle Neutronic ordinance.
Israel has had significant numbers of nuclear artillery since the late 70's...at Dimona..they achieved a breakthrough with Neutronic ordinance..were able to build ordinance small..capable of being deployed as artillery...cruise missiles..mines..and air drop.
Neutronics wave emmissions destroy living cell structure..will passing through the inanimate.. leaving it intact.
There are several prophetic word plays which one suspects paint the picture of this technologies result.
You can read of it in Ezekiel..and Zechariah.
Most technology eventually see's the day of light...we may cringe at the thought..I suspect one day in my lifetime..Israel will use these Neutronic systems.
Some may say you are loosin it Light Speed..no way Israel has this stuff..or they would be using it right now.
They do folks..they have these assets and technologies...some in vast number now[Neutronics]..some are systems being sized down..to be fitted to ground movement assets...and aircraft.
Israel continues to achieve technical breakthroughs..others who moniter their progress are shocked to find that what was envisioned to be operable in say 10-20 yrs..is now working..and is being designed to fit multi theatre systems.
Arabs have lived by the terrorism ride..their meal of social choice..I suspect ..that one day they will reap the harvest of this path.
Zechariah:
"This is the plague with which the Lord will strike all the nations that have fought against Jerusalem:
Their flesh will rot while they are standing on their feet, their eyes will rot in their sockets..and their tongues will rot in their mouths"
On that day men will be strichen by the Lord with great panic..each will seize the hand of another..they will attack each other"