Posted on 02/01/2002 4:07:59 PM PST by d14truth
California GOP Remains Gray Davis' Best Friend
"California Gov. Gray Davis (D) apparently has survived the state's energy crunch only to find himself facing an even more threatening political problem: an expected $12.4 billion state budget shortfall over the next two years. But California's Republican Party is only now starting to recover from years of ineptness and financial inadequacy, and it finds itself facing another potentially divisive primary that could help Davis win a second term.
The race for the GOP nomination pits a trio of hopefuls - former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, California Secretary of State Bill Jones and businessman Bill Simon - each of whom appear to have a fundamental weakness that must be overcome to win.
Riordan, 71, is a former two-term mayor whose personal wealth, reputation of mayoral success, statewide name ID and strong showing against Davis in early polling combine to make him the early favorite for the GOP nomination.
But he's a Republican in name only. Riordan has contributed heavily to Democratic candidates over the years, and his key campaign advisers include Democrats Clint Reilly, Pat Caddell, Susan Estrich and his own wife, Nancy Daly Riordan.
To placate Republicans angered by the exit of California GOP operative Dan Schnur and others from the campaign, the former mayor has hired pollster Fred Steeper and media consultant Don Sipple. Both men are highly respected consultants with strong Republican pedigrees, but Sipple's reappearance adds another interesting twist to the race. Sipple, whom I always regarded as one of the top GOP media consultants, lowered his profile a few years ago after a messy divorce made him politically untouchable.
Riordan's message of government experience, business success and electoral strength against Davis should appeal to GOP voters eager to oust the governor. But the Republican's positions on abortion, gun control and gay rights won't sit well with conservatives. Moreover, Riordan is often portrayed by insiders as crotchety and insiders are unsure he will take instructions from handlers.
Jones, the highest ranking Republican elected to a Golden State office, has put together a strong campaign team that includes Ed Rollins, McNally Temple & Associates, media guru Larry McCarthy, pollster Jan Van Lohuizen and fundraiser Carla Eudy.
But the Fresno rancher and legislator, who maintains close ties to the state's agriculture industry, does not have the financial strength to compete with his primary opponents. Strategists suggest he will avoid the expensive Los Angeles media market, focusing instead on direct mail, telephone advocacy and TV in smaller markets, including San Diego, Fresno and Bakersfield.
Part of Jones' problem is that he burned himself last year when he switched from supporting George W. Bush to backing Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) for the GOP presidential nomination. Not only did that raise questions about his political acumen, it also strained relations with key Republicans who, if the whispers are correct, have shut off many of the state's financial faucets that Jones needs to raise enough money to be competitive.
Jones, who is often described as bland (not necessarily a liability given recent California gubernatorial races), has been endorsed by former Gov. George Deukmejian (R).
Possibly the most interesting contender in the GOP race is Simon, who has enough cash to compete with Riordan but is aiming to become the standard-bearer of the party's conservative wing in the March 5, 2002, primary.
The son of former Treasury Secretary William Simon, the 50-year-old is a wealthy investor, philanthropist and lawyer. He also served as an assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, and campaign aides say that Simon's boss at that time, Rudy Giuliani (R), is a close friend who will appear in campaign ads for the gubernatorial hopeful.
Former Reagan Energy Secretary Jon Herrington is Simon's state chairman, while veteran California consultant Sal Russo handles media and strategy and Steve Kinney of Public Opinion Strategy handles polling.
Simon boasts endorsements from conservative commentator/1992 Senate nominee Bruce Herschensohn and1998 Senate nominee Matt Fong (R). Conservative activist Paul Weyrich has called Simon "inspiring" and "principled," and praised him as "an economic conservative ... [who] has been one of the most outspoken advocates of the need for religion in the public square."
While Simon portrays himself as an outsider, that lack of campaign experience is also a weakness. He begins with little statewide name identification and is unproven on the campaign trail. His unabashedly conservative views also raise questions about whether he will end up the way most conservatives have in post-Ronald Reagan California - as losers who can't broaden their appeal.
It is not yet clear whether California Republicans are willing to put aside their issue differences with Riordan even if they believe he has the best chance of defeating Davis. Primaries usually don't work that way.
If Riordan falters (or self-destructs), Simon has the resources to take advantage. If that happens, Jones may see an opening as the two GOP millionaires beat each other over the head with millions in TV advertising. Riordan's early lead in the primary looks about as solid as a block of ice in the Southern California sun."
Riordan would back Boxer over Jones.
It's a turn-around jump shot, it's everybody jump start, every generation throws a hero on the pop charts.
| To find all articles tagged or indexed using calgov2002, click below: | ||||
| click here >>> | calgov2002 | <<< click here | ||
| (To view all FR Bump Lists, click here) | ||||
California GOP Remains Gray Davis' Best Friend
and ...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.