Posted on 01/27/2002 8:25:56 PM PST by Impeach98
This is GREAT news!!!!! YIPPEEEE!!!!!!
M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FROM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Simon Closing in on Riordan in Another Poll
DATE: January 28, 2002
____________________________________________________________________
A new poll released Friday by the non-partisan California Target Book shows that conservative Republican Bill Simon's campaign for Governor continues to gain traction with voters. In three recent polls from January 10 through January 24, Simon's support has grown from 4% to 13% and now 18% and growing!
In a matter of three weeks Simon support has jumped almost five-fold on the strength of a growing paid media campaign, the televised candidates debate and key endorsements.
Simon has won recent endorsements from Rudy Giuliani, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, California Tax Limitation Committee, California ProLife Council, the California Organization of Police and Sheriffs and conservative State Senator Ray Haynes.
SIMON CLOSING IN ON RIORDAN AS JONES EASILY SURPASSED
The latest poll shows a continual growth in support for Simon despite being outspent by Riordan in recent weeks. While the Simon surge is based on a $600,000 media buy, Riordan has squandered over $2,000,000 according to press reports - with almost nothing to show for the effort. Jones continues to flounder without any prospect for a serious media campaign. The three recent polls were the Public Policy Institute Poll taken from December 26, 2001 through January 10, 2002; the News10-SurveyUSA Poll released on January 21st; and the Target Book poll taken from January 22 through January 24, 2002. The only candidate making significant statewide progress is Bill Simon.
================
PPIC - Jan. 10
================
Riordan 43%
Simon 4%
Jones 10%
================
Survey USA - Jan. 21
================
Riordan 53%
Simon 13%
Jones 14%
================
Target Book - Jan. 24
================
Riordan 45%
Simon 18%
Jones 13%
SIMON NOW EVEN WITH RIORDAN IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA
The most compelling aspect of the poll is the ground Simon is gaining on former L.A. Mayor Dick Riordan. Simon slightly leads Riordan in the San Francisco Bay Area media market (27%-26%) where Simon enjoys a 24% favorable - 3% unfavorable image rating. Simon also runs a statistical dead heat for first place in the Sacramento media market where Simon is viewed favorably by 27% of voters and unfavorably by only 3%.
RECOGNITION OF GIULIANI ENDORSEMENT GROWS
This new poll shows that the endorsement of Simon by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is playing an important role in helping to fuel the explosion in support for Simon. Among those who indicated that they were aware of Giuliani's endorsement of Bill Simon in the GOP gubernatorial race, a whopping 46% indicated they were supporting Simon. Only 1 in 5 voters was aware of the Giuliani endorsement when the poll was conducted.
As the Simon for Governor campaign continues to expand the size and scope of its paid television and radio advertisements in the coming days, this correlation will further propel Simon upwards in the polls.
JONES NOW IRRELEVANT IN GUBERNATORIAL RACE
The California Target Book poll also exposed the widely predicted end for the campaign of Secretary of State Bill Jones. Support for Jones is dropping to single digits in many parts of the state and among key demographics groups as a result of voters flocking to Simon. In the San Diego media market, for example, Jones polls just 4% of the vote. Without the capacity for any significant statewide media buys, Jones is likely to languish in single digits throughout the state.
RIORDAN NOW REELING UNDER CAMPAIGN SCRUTINY
The recent poll also shows increased negatives for Mayor Riordan as voters become increasingly aware of his inconsistent statements on major issues in the campaign. Now Governor Gray Davis is joining the fray and pointing out Riordan inconsistencies to primary voters!
__________________________
Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
770 L Street, Suite 950
Sacramento, CA 95814
(916) 441-3734
For people like Tabitha Soren, whose heart is in the right place but are politically unrealistic? Yes, you do.
What ever happened to partial birth ban?... I thought W was pro-life? How come the GOP House hasn't brought it up...nor W has send it to the congress as a bill???????
Not on a long shot. Besides, what the press won't tell you is that MOST people who are pro-abortion are MEN ... But that doesn't hold with the media view of things, so they rarely show female pro-lifers and only show white males who sound like neandtrathals.
I am a woman in my 30s, I am pro-life, and I would never vote for any candidate who wasn't.
I'm voting for Bill Simon, the only realy pro-life candidate in the race.
Pete Wilson is an example of why Republicans should be carefull with taking an offensive stance on immigration. Borders need to be protected, but a heavy handed approach will do more harm than good in the long run.
1) The number of pro-life Republican women in California is statistically insignificant, consisting almost entirely of religious conservatives.
2) If Simon becomes the nominee (he has my vote) Davis will tear him to shreds on the abortion issue. California voters respond in Pavlovian ways when the Democrats haul out the "right to choose" catch phrases.
3) Riordan neutralizes Davis's advantage on the abortion issue. Unfortunately, he is a much older man who doesn't have Presidential hair. Politically illiterate Californians (and Americans in general) tend to vote for the more telegenic candidate.
4) Whoever described Bill Jones as the "Republican Al Gore" got it just right. He will be no factor.
5) California voters have already forgotten the power crisis, and if big bills come due in the future, they will blame Enron and PG&E, not Gray Davis.
6) Davis has a $30 million war chest.
Translation: Riordan wins the primary, holding off a surprisingly strong challenge from Simon. In the general election, he loses 55-45 to Davis. Californians just aren't angry enough at Davis to turn him out of office, and they almost always give governors two terms.
Nick Jesson is a good man, and his position on the issues is a lot closer to mine than the others (including Bill Simon). And I thought long and hard before deciding to give Simon my support in terms of phone banking, walking, and ultimately, my vote. However, the quote above misrepresents what the Simon campaign has told me is his position on this issue. I'll have a chance to ask him myself tomorow, and will do so, however, the "party line" is that he is in favor, in the abstract, of legal immigration (without commenting on levels, or the notion of a moratorium for a few years), but strongly opposed to illegal immigration. No doubt you, as well as I, regard this as, at least, a day late and a dollar short. However, I have to look at this race in toto, and when you do that, the balance tips from Jesson to Simon. Not on the issues, but on the practical fact that Simon can win the primary due to the paid media blitz and all of the other essentials (to winning), that come with a well-financed campaign. This is exacerbated by Riordan's deep-pockets and the fawning media.
I'm sorry to say, it's not a race between Simon and Jesson. I wish it were. It's a race (with all due respect to Bill Jones), between Simon and Riordan. Further, Simon appears to be a good mainstream "conservative" candidate, so I really am not in a position of having to "hold my nose" to vote (and work) for the guy.
Why would you want a governor more liberal than Gray Davis? Are you a liberal?
If you think that Riordan will benave like a Republican because of the R next to his name you are wrong.
When he became mayor of LA he let go of all his Republican campaign staff and hired Dems to the highest positions in City Hall. As Mayor he used the title to endorse Democrats in the most important races in California. He endorsed Diane Feinstein twice gainst very moderate Republican challengers.
I think the mistake you are making is thinking that Riordan is a moderate Republican like Christie Todd Whittman, or Arlen Specter. He's not even that. We need a new name for people like Riordan. He is a proud and proven liberal Dmeocrat who -- for whatever reason -- chose to check the R on his voter registration card.
Pick an issue and Riordan is there with the liberal Democrats.
Well with Riordan you will get another four years MORE LIBERAL than Davis. Pick an issues and Riordan is on Davis' side or to the left of him.
Is that what you want? Are you a liberal?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.