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Novak: Why GOP fears 2002 races
Chicago Sun-Times ^ | 11/26/2001 | Robert Novak

Posted on 11/26/2001 6:56:34 AM PST by Pokey78

It terrifies us,'' said a national Republican operative, reacting to last Tuesday's special congressional election. The GOP candidate won in the solidly Republican Arkansas 3rd District. But the campaign signaled that Social Security remains the third rail of American politics.

The problem is President Bush's plan to partially privatize Social Security. For the second straight special House election, Democrats turned a seemingly sure Republican win into a nail-biter by accusing the GOP of threatening the national pension plan. For the second straight time, Republicans thanked their lucky stars that the Democratic onslaught was too little, too late.

Republicans, over the long haul, will benefit if Americans can divert part of payroll taxes that finance Social Security into private investments. Polls show people who own common stock are more likely to vote Republican. But over the short haul, it could prove fatal in the 2002 House elections. While the Bush Social Security reform commission is refining its plan with another meeting in Washington this week, the House Republican campaign chairman--Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia--would like the operation shut down. House campaign planners want Bush either to dump Social Security reform or start using his bully pulpit to talk about it. Bush has been mute about this and other domestic issues since Sept. 11.

Last Tuesday's election shows why Davis is so worried. The 3rd District, covering northwest Arkansas, is the state's most Republican. Bush carried it by 22 percentage points last year, and it has been represented in Congress by a Republican since 1966 (including a 1974 losing race by Bill Clinton). Asa Hutchinson, who resigned the seat this year to head the Drug Enforcement Administration, won with 81 percent in 1998 and was unopposed last year. John Boozman, an optometrist and former University of Arkansas football player, was a rookie candidate but seemed safe enough. On Sept. 26-27, his own polls showed him leading Democratic state Rep. Mike Hathorn by 32 percentage points. By Nov. 12-14, a week before the election, the margin had dwindled to 4 points--a virtual tie.

The lead was shredded by a merciless, factually faulty lambasting of Boozman on Social Security, orchestrated by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. ''If John Boozman's scheme were enacted a year ago,'' said a Hathorn flier, ''your Social Security benefits would be worth 40 percent less today.''

A Hathorn television spot beginning Nov. 11 claimed: ''John Boozman would risk our Social Security. Gambling it on the stock market. Wall Street bankers make millions, and Arkansas families would lose everything.'' Hathorn himself went on camera to pledge: ''As your congressman, I will never allow anyone to risk our Social Security.''

Seniors and baby boomers told pollsters they were abandoning Boozman. Facing humiliating defeat, the National Republican Congressional Committee put out a television ad declaring that Social Security is ''a sacred trust. A commitment we've made to our seniors. That's why John Boozman will work in Congress to protect Social Security for every senior--and for generations to come.'' Thanks mainly to a superior absentee vote mechanism, Boozman won by 13 points.

That outcome did not reassure Republicans, and neither did Virginia's June 19 special election for the seat in the conservative Tidewater district that had been held for 18 years by Democratic Rep. Norm Sisisky, who died in March. Republican Randy Forbes' big lead over Democrat Louise Lucas disappeared when Democrats opened fire on Social Security, and he wound up a 4-point winner.

The lessons are clear to old pros of both parties. An earlier, larger Democratic committee intervention on Social Security would have kept the Virginia 4th District seat and might have won in Arkansas. Indeed, had the Democrats not ignored it, they might have won the year's first special election on May 15 in the overwhelmingly Republican Pennsylvania 9th District. Republican Bill Shuster won with 52 percent to succeed his father, Bud, who often ran unopposed.

Traditional Republican concentration on special elections resulted in three lost Democratic opportunities, but the political danger of the president's Social Security initiative remains. The congressional Republican message to Bush: Either try to disarm the third rail, or put it away for 2002.


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
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To: Paul Ross
It was reported on Fox News and locally on ABC radio that the National Republican Congressional Committee had blamed Schundler.

Why would the Congressional Committee comment on a race that has nothing to do with Congress?

It was the NJ RINO leadership that backstabbed Schundler.

21 posted on 11/26/2001 7:24:16 AM PST by Dane
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To: Pokey78
Robert Novak? Is he still around? Is he still relevant?
22 posted on 11/26/2001 7:24:22 AM PST by pollyshy
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To: Sans-Culotte
If the Republicans would simply offer up a plan which would allow for personal ownership of the Treasury notes which ostensibly support Social Security, retirees would have an estate value to their benefit. Any residual amount could be passed on to heirs upon death as is done with all other retirement plans. Democrats would have to argue against such a plan and they would be shown to be the greedy, selfish ba$tard$ we all know them to be. Perhaps at least the independent voters would realize that the dems are only looking to keep people as servants of government.
23 posted on 11/26/2001 7:24:50 AM PST by Sgt_Schultze
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To: Dane
Boozman won by a comfortable 12 points, even when the demo Hathorn tried to make himself as a Republican(i.e pro-gun and anti partial birth abortion).

I agree. This is typical media-horserace-mentality stuff. Any polled lead must turn out to be the actual, or "expectations" weren't met and the reason MUST be due to one or two factors explainable in 30 seconds or under 100 words typewritten words.

Sorry, but Novak is media first, conservative third.

24 posted on 11/26/2001 7:48:09 AM PST by sayfer bullets
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To: Paul Ross
It was reported on Fox News and locally on ABC radio that the National Republican Congressional Committee had blamed Schundler.

I thought Schundler ran for governor. Why would the Natinal Republican Congressionl Committee have anything to say about it? They fund congressional races. I think you have your committees mixed up.

25 posted on 11/26/2001 7:55:46 AM PST by Dave S
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To: Dave S
I recall a memo being issued by a national GOP committee, but that was also before word got out about how bad DiFrancesco was backstabbing.

There was very good support for Schundler, even among some moderates (Bob Franks and Tom Kean both were supportive). I will go with the GOP, but I may just stay home for Virginia's Senate race if John Warner wins. I cannot vote for him after he stabbed Ollie North and Mike Farris in the back.

26 posted on 11/26/2001 8:05:33 AM PST by hchutch
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To: Pokey78
You all really think that the Pubbie party is conservative? WAKE UP.
27 posted on 11/26/2001 8:14:36 AM PST by Digger
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To: Pokey78
The Dems poured 100,000 dollars into the race including sending Clinton there to campaign. Maybe that's why the Rep didn't win by a 20 pt margin.
28 posted on 11/26/2001 8:18:27 AM PST by marajade
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To: Sans-Culotte
"I think the Republicans need to abandon the privatization plan."

Why? The majority of people are for it.

29 posted on 11/26/2001 8:18:58 AM PST by marajade
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To: marajade
I have two children that will be old enough to start working in January. I don't think the plan would help me much but it would be good for them. I think they need better ad people.Its all how you sell it and the Republicans are'nt very good salespeople.
30 posted on 11/26/2001 8:27:43 AM PST by linn37
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To: linn37
Well if the Reps have to resort to selling an issue that betters those who pay into Soc Sec than the cause isn't worth fighting for.
31 posted on 11/26/2001 8:29:27 AM PST by marajade
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To: Sgt_Schultze
"If the Republicans would simply offer up a plan which would allow for personal ownership of the Treasury notes which ostensibly support Social Security, retirees would have an estate value to their benefit. Any residual amount could be passed on to heirs upon death as is done with all other retirement plans. Democrats would have to argue against such a plan and they would be shown to be the greedy, selfish ba$tard$ we all know them to be. Perhaps at least the independent voters would realize that the dems are only looking to keep people as servants of government."

This is not an idea I have heard of before. It's pretty darn good. Thank you, Sergeant, for posting this.

32 posted on 11/26/2001 8:37:23 AM PST by Irene Adler
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To: pollyshy
Dennis Prager is on right now discussing Robert Novak and the mystery of why this guy is called conservative.
33 posted on 11/26/2001 8:40:52 AM PST by Cinnamon Girl
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To: marajade
republican support for privatization is lip-service.

The republican party as a whole wants nothing to do with

giving up the control over all that cash.

Lets not forget how much of it gets dumped into the general fund each year.

Privatization? It'l never happen.....

34 posted on 11/26/2001 8:54:30 AM PST by WhiteGuy
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To: mwl1
If the GOP is unable or unwilling to sell its privatization concept, then obviously it's not a good policy idea.

I am just enough of a pragmatist to appreciate the point you are making here. "If you can't explain it to a barmaid in five minutes, then you don't understand it."

I think privatization in the long run it is the only thing that will save the fiscal integrity of the government.

35 posted on 11/26/2001 9:25:38 AM PST by Zack Nguyen
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To: Queen Elizabeth of Iowa
QE-I, Thanks. My intent is only to lay bare the arguments of the wacky, fraudulent left. If the facts are as the democrats state, that we are investing in our own retirements, surely fairness dictates that one should own that which he has contributed. Of course We realize that there really is no money in Social Security - it is really the longest-running and largest-ever ponzi scheme devised. The far left knows if ownership of the "bonds" ever passed to the retiree, there would be no more lavish spending designed to elicit votes. They would be caught fighting against giving the common guy his own money.

Republicans will have none of this though. It would be called too divisive by the press and the lazy Republicans in Congress would quiet.

36 posted on 11/26/2001 6:02:16 PM PST by Sgt_Schultze
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To: Pokey78; Digger; Paul Ross; Zack Nguyen; rightwingextremist1776; SamAdams76; Kennard...
I am convinced that the Republican Party establishment and the White House are deliberately trying to lose the 2002 elections because they think it will increase the chance that the voters will want to check Democratic abuses of power and re-elect Bush in 2004. Also, the Republican establishment doesn't want a conservative majority in the Senate that would confirm conservative Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade. I'm looking forward to having Speaker Gephardt.
37 posted on 11/26/2001 6:29:07 PM PST by Holden Magroin
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To: Dave S
Believe me, when you are a substantial contributor, you too will learn to carefully listen for the activities and statements originating from 'your' PAC. The Committee is supposed to focus on congressional races, but clearly the governor's races have a big hand in those outcomes, at least potentially, when in the RATS hands....
38 posted on 11/26/2001 7:32:17 PM PST by Paul Ross
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To: Pokey78
Have all of you people gone nuts? Novak's crying about the fact that we didn't win by 20 points because of social security is dumbass talk. Does anyone remember that one of the reasons that the attempted hijacking in Florida didn't work was that the Rats' scare tactics on social security didn't work on the seniors down there. Florida being "senior and social secirity central" for the whole country, if the evil donkey couldn't sell it to those old bingo queens, they won't be able to sell it elsewhere. To look at one single race, won or lost, 12 months out and claim to get something significant out of it, is to prove that you have too much free time on your hands and have become bored with covering the war, Mr Novak. One more point: this win continues our unbroken string of not losing a single contested race since willie dirtied the white house in 1993. (That's IF you want to consider it a contested race. )
39 posted on 11/27/2001 7:20:23 AM PST by jmaroneps37
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