Posted on 11/16/2001 1:22:02 PM PST by ouroboros
Nov. 13 was a good day for America and a great day for George W. Bush. Kabul fell, the Taliban were suddenly on the run, and the president's men and U.S. armed forces seemed to have engineered a brilliant victory without the loss of a single American in combat.
A surge of national confidence sent the Dow soaring, and the NASDAQ rose 3 percent. Bush's next poll should find him near the 90 percent approval rating in which his father basked after Desert Storm.
For Bush, it has been a good war that has firmly rooted his presidency in the hearts and minds of Americans. His role has been one any leader would have relished. When terrorists smashed those airliners into the World Trade Center and Pentagon, Americans from the Hollywood Left to the Old Right united in rage and resolve to avenge the massacres.
All Bush had to do was say, "Let's roll."
Now comes the hard part. Bush must soon post the goals for phase two of the War on Terror, a decision that could split apart his unified country or shatter his war coalition. For America's foreign policy elites are not united on phase two. As in the great battle between FDR and the America First of 1940-41, they are already separating into a War Party and a Peace Party.
The choice Bush must make: Does phase two mean an attack on Iraq and the destruction of Saddam Hussein? Or does phase two mean a diplomatic initiative to honor Bush's commitment to our Arab allies to midwife a Mideast peace and the birth of a new nation called Palestine?
Will the president lead the War Party in a military campaign to destroy Iraq, Hamas and Hezbollah? Or will he, after his victory in the Hindu Kush, lead the Peace Party? That is the question of the hour.
The War Party has already begun to pound the drums. The first ragged foot soldier of the Northern Alliance had not stumbled into Kabul before the "On-to-Baghdad!" boys were back waving the bloody shirt. Not a day passes that some hawkish journalist does not discover a new link between Saddam and the suicide pilots, or between Iraq and the anthrax, though the Bush administration repeatedly denies it.
Who leads the War Party? Thus far, leadership is confined to the chattering classes radio and TV talking heads, think-tank scribblers, editorialists at The Wall Street Journal and The Weekly Standard, National Review and The New Republic, and columnists on the op-ed pages of the Washington and New York papers. But the War Party yet lacks for a powerful political leader. Look for John McCain to fill the void.
In their now famous open letter, William Bennett, Gary Bauer, Jean Kirkpatrick and 38 other ex-Republican officials and foreign-policy scholars warned Bush that if he failed to attack Iraq, he faced court-martial for surrender in the War on Terror. "You must finish the job your father failed to finish," Bush is daily instructed.
Given the clamor for a wider war from within his own camp of media allies, and the scourging he will receive if he fails to take the war to Baghdad, why is Bush holding back?
First, Colin Powell does not want a wider war.
Second, Bush has been put on notice that no NATO ally, not even Tony Blair, will support a new war on Iraq. Europe wants a new American peace initiative. Nor will any major Arab ally support us. The Saudis have already declared their bases off-limits to the United States for a second Desert Storm.
Third, where the president's father had unanimous Security Council support for the first Gulf War, the son would face a Chinese, Russian and perhaps French veto, and U.N. condemnation.
Fourth, while Saddam is far weaker than he was before he ran afoul of Gen. Schwarzkopf, so are we. Since 1991, the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force have been cut in half. If we are to march up the road to Baghdad, this time it will take more than six months to build up the necessary forces in the Gulf. And, unlike Afghanistan, there will be no Northern Alliance to do the fighting. All the ground troops will be Americans.
For these reasons, and because his father still believes he was right not to march on Baghdad, the son will probably not invade and the War Party will probably not prevail, unless hard evidence is found of Saddam's involvement in Sept. 11.
But if Bush spurns the War Party, will he lead the Peace Party, collar Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat, and be the godfather of a new Palestinian state? Or is that Mission Impossible?
Bush should enjoy his triumph. Difficult days lie ahead.
Patrick J. Buchanan was twice a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination and the Reform Partys candidate in 2000. Now a commentator and columnist, he served three presidents in the White House, was a founding panelist of three national televison shows, and is the author of six books. His current position is chairman of The American Cause. His newest book, "Death of the West," will be published in January.
Good question...we're running low on the Charmin here...
Oh what crap. Maybe you haven't seen this headline, that oil may go down to $10 a barrel. OPEC needs us more than we need them and with more Russian oil coming on line every day, OPEC has lost one of it's weapons.
Pat is delusional.
He's in Clinton mode, struggling for some sort of significance in the universe. It isn't happening, and won't.
Two points:
1. Bush just ordered the purchase of another 10 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
2. Russia has lots of oil for sale. OPEC is pissed because Russia is driving down the cost of oil and won't cut production. And Russia's President was just visiting...where?
And maybe you haven't seen the articles saying that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of falling completely apart. They've been paying protection money to the terrorists for years, in an attempt to keep the House of Saud in charge for a while longer. The terrorists, if they decide that Saudi Arabia is cooperating a little too much with Bush, can take some dynamite into the oil fields and quickly take out enough production capability to drive the price to $100 per barrel.
Yep, more advice from the genius who said that we should have never declared war against the Nazis as they weren't our enemies! The same guy who used Herpes as a medical reason not to serve in Nam. A real military expert like the clymer Krystol quoted by this world class loser in life!
Buchanan, Krystol and the rest of the NE so called conservatives are so farer out of the current power loop, than Jupiter is from the sun! They are out in the cold dark side of space, with zero impact on GW and the world. Their 15 minutes of fame are over. They are becoming grease spots in the ash heap of failures!
That has always been a possibilty(even before 9/11), but rememebr when people were saying that Kabul wouldn't be taken until spring? There is a lot going on behind the scenes and I have no doubt that a contigency has been taken into account of your scenario. People have been poo-pooing the effectiveness of the War in Afghanistan.
Bush and Co. have proved their competance and success, when are the naysayers going to concretely prove theirs?
Exactly what did you find so disagreeable in Buchanan's assessment of the situation? It seemed like a pretty straight forward, objective appraisal of the situation to me.
Danny BoyOh Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the flowers are dying
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.
But come ye back when summer's in the meadow
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow
'Tis I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh Danny boy, oh Danny boy, I love you so.
And if you come, when all the flowers are dying
And I am dead, as dead I well may be
You'll come and find the place where I am lying
And kneel and say an "Ave" there for me.
And I shall hear, tho' soft you tread above me
And all my dreams will warm and sweeter be
If you'll not fail to tell me that you love me
I'll simply sleep in peace until you come to me.
I'll simply sleep in peace until you come to me.
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