No matter what the NTSB determines to have caused the crash of American Airlines Flight 587, the event will have a significant impact on airline travel. Taken in the broader context of the September 11 attacks and a world now at war against terrorism, the loss of another large airliner full of passengers has no doubt penetrated the consciousness of a country even somewhat numbed by tragedy.

Who will not think twice about airline travel now, especially out of New York or on American? Who is convinced that the crash was truly an accident and not another sinister act of terror somehow linked to 9/11? There are too many coincidences. New York City again. American Airlines again. Veteran's Day. The FBI and other law-enforcement professionals don't like coincidences.

So far, the authorities have gone to great lengths to assure the public that this looks like an accident, some massive mechanical failure of an extremely safe and reliable aircraft, the Airbus 300. Fortunately, it appears all the pieces of the puzzle are going to be available to the investigators. Both "black boxes," the cockpit voice recorder, and the flight-data recorder, have been recovered intact. The wreckage of the fuselage and the two engines are accessible, as are the vertical tail and rudder, both salvaged from Jamaica Bay. Accident investigation is a sophisticated science and, given the availability of evidence, will definitively identify the actual cause of the crash.

In light of the preliminary evidence to date, there are many perplexing questions regarding both aviation and law-enforcement considerations. With apparently no damage to the bolts that held it in place, why did the tail come off the airplane? With both engines found relatively intact, why did they both separate from the aircraft when it appears there was no massive engine failure? Why would an aircraft with a solid safety record over many years come apart so catastrophically, especially at such a low speed where airflow forces and wake turbulence are not especially hazardous.

From the law-enforcement perspective, who had access to the plane prior to its last flight? Who completed the preflight mechanical inspection? Could a skilled mechanic have sabotaged the tail or engines? Who loaded the cargo and baggage? Who cleaned the passenger cabin and stowed the catering? Could one of these people have planted a bomb? After all, JFK is known throughout the industry as an airport where English is not a second language, but a foreign language; where the security and other airport personnel are predominantly foreign. The law-enforcement side of the investigation may ultimately not reveal the cause of the crash, but still uncover concrete systemic problems at JFK that would indicate that the airport security system in the United States is broken, perhaps broken beyond the scope of the fixes in the legislation now being debated before Congress.

It is really too early to assign causes for the crash. There is much investigative work to be done before the NTSB can definitively say what went wrong. According to the Marion Blakely, the NTSB chairman, they are still in the early stages of the investigation and it may be months before the accident report is complete.

Without speculating about what actually caused the crash, the administration must examine its options on how best to present this new catastrophe to the people. On the one hand, a straight mechanical malfunction that kills hundreds of people may be more palatable than an act of terror that kills the same because it assumes that we have some sort of handle on homeland security, that since 9/11 our efforts have been effective. On the other hand, such a catastrophic loss of life due to what is ultimately human error by the airline industry certainly undermines confidence in the industry.

In light of its two lost aircraft from 9/11, for American Airlines, like other major airlines fighting for economic viability, could this be its undoing? Will the government choose further to assist American, either economically or politically? For if American Airlines, perhaps the most respected carrier in the business, were to fail, what bodes for the rest of the industry?

Another strategic perspective is that if it were a terrorist attack, would it serve further to galvanize American spirit and resolve for the long and difficult war on terrorism? Or would it cause the naysayers to encourage a curtailment of the active prosecution of the war? Already we see fissures in what had been rock solid support of the administration's course of action, especially from the academic elite. Will they seize on this incident as an opportunity to drive the wedge in American resolve by shuddering about the demise of the airline industry should we continue the war on terror?

Perhaps the intrinsic delay in aircraft accident investigation will provide the needed breathing room for the industry and the country to come to grips with these questions. But it is likely that the crash of American 587 will have ramifications far greater than that of a terrible airplane accident in a simpler time.

When I put on my deluxe, copper-clad tin-foil hat, I admit to purposefully avoiding Kennedy airport. I fly in/out of NY area probably 25 - 30 times a year. Never JFK. LGA, EWR and sometimes White Plains/Westchester. NEver Kennedy.

If this wasn't a structural failure, and it was terrorism, I think we need to completely overhaul the operations and employee structure of JFK.

I'm from New York originally, and I remember Kennedy always had a bad "rep" about many different things: the traffic and the way the place seemed structured to maximize traffic problems; the infiltration by the "Mob" of unions and their pilferage of cargo; and the airline security problems there. Putting on your tinfoil hat may get you laughed at, but sometimes it keeps you alive, too.

When I think of these incidents, each of them very tragic indeed, I try to remember that thousands of flights take off every day. In a months time there are so many flights that statisticly, the chances are very small that you'll be involved in a problem flight. Of course it only takes one flight on any one given day to soil this whole train of logic.

What the cause of the hour, pilot error? If the NTSB dosn't know the cause they should just say so and stop speculationg on evey whim that comes thier way. Where did they get their jobs, the Clinton Administration? It all boils doen to a TWA 800 type desaster. Nobody beleives the findings of the investigation. More government bungling and they want to give the airline security responsibility to the Feds. Thats no solution. Then again the government isn't about solutions, its about issues and funding.

You are of course right that, even today, one's chances of boarding a flight and deplaning at one's destination safe and sound are statistically superb. But understand also that Americans are going to feel much more uncomfortable flying if they think there's the unpredictable "wild card" of unchecked terrorism aimed at airline flights. A "mechanical error" can be "fixed" by inspections, maintenance crews, and plaintiff lawyers, and is in the public's mind a "whoops!-just-one-of-those-things" one-time deal, whereas terrorism is an intentional, focused, ongoing, and hence much scarier problem. Hence, the government's straining for a "mechanical failure" explanation.

And before this thread starts getting a lot of cliched posts about "cheese" and "tinfoil," I'm not alleging government cover-up, or government lying, or my conviction that "it had to be a terrorist act." I'm just saying that "mechanical failure" is the explanation the government and the airline industry wants. Take that any way you like.

Here's a tidbit on a possible Fl. 587 "mechanical failure" scenario from the ever-interesting Charlie Smith of Softwar.com:

CHARLES SMITH, SOFTWAR: There is another possible cause for FOD or foreign object damage. This raises the possibility of sabotage using "500 mile an hour tape" AKA - Duct tape. This has happened before. Simply tape a small metal object (a quarter) to the inner-cowling of the engine prior to engine start. The tape and the object will usually pass close inspection since duct tape is silver in color and appears to be part of the metal surface. When the pilot goes to full power at take-off the tape rips off due to the excessive aerodynamic forces and releases the quarter to be ingested in the engine. This has happened before here in the USA.

500 mile an hour tape/FO ingestion.

More armchair idiot experts.

#1. It's called 100 mile-per-hour tape
#2. Would cause instant problems upon application of takeoff power, not minutes later.
#3. Damage would be very readilly apparent in examination of first stage impeller blades in early stages of crash investigation.
#4. Would cause instant major deviations in EPPR and ITT engine instruments within first 250 feet of takeoff roll with visual readouts and alarms. T/O would be aborted immediately.
#5. Would be major item on CVR tape.
#6. Was done in a fictional book, not reality.

Other than being 100% wrong, it's a great theory and bound to get plenty of coverage on internet!

Other than being 100% wrong, it's a great theory and bound to get plenty of coverage on internet!

Not on this thread anymore. If Charlie's wrong, he's wrong.

But now that you're here, what about these reports that the Airbus frame is made out of some kind of "composite" that is weaker than those used in other manufactures? (They're floating this theory to explain the oddly clean "shear off" of the vertical stabilizer from Flt. 587). What is the composition of this "composite," and have there been structural problems with it in airframes before?

Three answers are appplicable.

#1. Strength of composites vs. aluminum. Not so much a question of stronger as different. Aluminum is strong, and it gives and bends before breaking. Composites are generally stronger, but have little bend-before-breaking capability. Each has value, they are used in different ways.

#2. Airbus composites vs. others composites. Unknown, but every aircraft is engineered to meet certain standards. Should not be a proglem.

#3. Reports via internet. I am amazed how many foolishly false stories are floating around net. I knew there was no higherarchy on net, but (incorrectly) assumed their was some self censoring and/or validation. In reality, such validation is completely missing.

Anyone can post anything outlandish and the wilder and stupider it is, the better. It's a huge rumor mill being encouraged to display low levels of rationality. The more stupid the article, not on only on FR, (in fact FR is among the better sites) but everywhere.

It's like angry old women gossiping over the back fence but worse.

Reports via internet. I am amazed how many foolishly false stories are floating around net. I knew there was no higherarchy on net, but (incorrectly) assumed their was some self censoring and/or validation. In reality, such validation is completely missing.

Now wait a minute. I posted the Charlie Smith tidbit because it sounded plausible. Then I read your refutation and it didn't sound plausible any more. I'm not keeping you from debunking false theories---I welcome it. I want to know what happened to Flight 587---if it truly was "mechanical failure," then that's what it WAS. Period, end of story.

It's like angry old women gossiping over the back fence but worse.

Careful, guy. Didn't you get in trouble for a crack like that before? There are "Lady Freepers," y'know. :)

I'm not targetting you. On a rationality scale, you get an A+. My worry is the convincing idiots. The ones who say it was little green men or had to be terrorism or whatever.

We don't know the cause yet. Why are some people not able to accept that. Why do some have to champion ideas that anyone with an IQ larger than their shoe size would know are BS?

The internet could be so good, but it seems to be so much stupid BS.

I'm about ready to go for the free porn sites! Better we see beautiful visual stuff than waste our intelligence on the mental masterbation of some political/opinion sites!

:~)

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