Analyzing Al Qaeda

The Somalia disaster where the bodies of US Army Rangers were dragged through the streets, the Kobar towers bombing, the attack on the USS Cole and now the events of September 11, 2001 have shown us that the United States is in a shooting war with Islamic militants. In order to effectively engage these enemies it is important to understand their goals and methods and evaluate the strategies and tactics the United States of America is employing to defeat this enemy. The identified leader of Al Qaeda is Osama bin Laden. Understanding his role is crucial. It is also necessary to understand the role of the Islamic faith and myth structure in how he gains support and recruits followers. This understanding may give us some clues as to how he will act and what we can expect. By comparing his probable actions against potential US actions we can garner an appreciation of those actions utility in eliminating this enemy.

Osama bin Laden is the son of a Saudi construction billionaire. He has inherited an estimated $300,000,000.00. He has a history of being a wastrel in the European fleshpots and then ostensibly became a devout Muslim. Over the years he has been an ally of the United States of America in the struggle to liberate Afghanistan from domination by the USSR and he has been an avowed enemy of the USA most especially after the Gulf war. His family has long been aligned with the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. The supposed conversion from construction tycoon to devout Muslim Emir was in the Afghan war. According to him he is religiously opposed to infidels being on the "holy ground" of Saudi Arabia. Whatever his true motivation the fact is he is now thought of by some to be a religious figure of Islam. It is this fact that we have to deal with. Since we are at war with his organization we must presume that he is calculating and cold in his decisions. Further we must presume he did not declare a war he did not think he could win.

The response of the Bush administration has been measured and it seems very well directed so far. From Al Qaeda statements it is clear that they view this war as a war of Islam against the USA and the whole of Western Civilization. Bush has not engaged the whole Islamic world in this war and has not simply ignored the September 11, 2001 attack as merely another criminal investigation. The bombing campaign in Afghanistan has been well though out and executed to minimize Muslim casualties. The premise is that the USA is not waging a war against Islam. It remains an open question how long this strategy can endure. It is not the USA's actions that will govern any such change rather the change will be driven entirely within the Muslim world. Already in Indonesia we have seen a very strong pro-Al Qaeda reaction. There are demonstrations of disputed size and importance in Pakistan and perhaps most significantly there is a faction with the ISI and the Pakistani military and scientific communities that do support Al Qaeda. The former head of the ISI is very much a Taliban supporter and although he is no longer in office one must presume many other pro Taliban individuals remain within that organization. Pakistan has a rather long history of military coups. Musharef may well be facing a coup at the worst possible time for the USA. The exact timing will probably be after the USA has substantial forces committed on the ground in Afghanistan.

One key point many do not appreciate is that there is a reason that Al Qaeda is headquartered out of Afghanistan. It is the ancient land of Kurushan mentioned in the Koran. There is a passage from Mohammed in the Koran that states when you see the Black Flags from Kurushan join the Jihad if you must crawl over ice. This Koranic command is interwoven with the end of day's prophecies that exist within the Koran. It will have a great impact on many Muslims and may cause a majority of Muslims to at least sympathize with Al Qaeda. There are many ways that Osama Bin Laden could exploit this sympathy. The most obvious is that should he be reported dead in Afghanistan he could resurface in some other Islamic nation amidst a crowd of people that would at least cause those who choose targets to pause before bombing. It does not matter in the least that Osama may or may not be in Afghanistan at present it merely matters that that is where he is now seen as initiating the Jihad.

Much has been written about how the Taliban and Al Qaeda are isolated in Afghanistan. Yet no one knows what sources of support Al Qaeda really has. The recent revelation about the Chinese leadership reveling in the pictures from September 11, 2001 should give everyone pause. No one has any doubts about the fact that China has many nuclear weapons. China has been shown to ruthlessly pursue absolutely any course of action, which they think will benefit the current leadership of China. Would they be willing to deliver some nuclear weapons to Al Qaeda to have them use them against the USA? Time will answer that question. It should be clear to anyone that the use of nuclear weapons against the USA would severely damage our nation and result in unacceptable casualties here. China has officially signed on to anti-terrorism conventions but in the past the People's Republic of China has ignored international conventions that get in their way. Does Al Qaeda have nuclear weapons? George W. Bush has stated they have sought to obtain them. Do we have a firm answer to that question? NO. Other potential sources of Al Qaeda nuclear weapons include Pakistani nuclear scientists and contraband enriched uranium or plutonium, or perhaps stolen Russian weapons.

In the past the mere possession of nuclear weapons by a hostile entity was not necessarily a major cause for concern for the USA. Distance provided some protection, as did our capability to assure the destruction of anyone who targeted the USA. Now we are faced wit a threat that comes from no one government rather from an amalgam of individuals and entities scattered around the globe that has no firm base whose attack they can not tolerate. Nor does the need to cross a vast distance necessarily stop the threat. Such a weapon need not be carried in a bomber or on the nose of a missile. Putting a megaton nuclear warhead in the trunk of car or the back of a van can deliver it to a city. Getting it into the USA may not be much of a challenge either. Routinely trailer trucks full of contraband enter our nation across the Mexican border. However at least the Mexican border is somewhat secure compared to the Canadian border and out seaports. Oh customs service and US Coast Guard are overworked and stretched way too thin. Remember a ship carrying a nuclear weapon does not even have to unload its cargo merely enter the port and set it off. No it might not achieve the most efficient destruction but from the terrorists perspective a million dead more or less is close enough. They do not really give a rat's butt if they only get 1,000,000 with a strike versus 1,255,348 that an optimum air burst would achieve. Illegal aliens one must presume and or American Muslims would accomplish such a strike.

Since September 11, 2001 approximately 1,100 individuals have been arrested and/or detained for that attack on the USA. So far reports are that these individuals are not talking. A large percentage of these people are illegal aliens. In Chicago's O'Hare airport an illegal alien was apprehended with multiple knives inside the gate area. At this point I will forego discussion of the supposed security provided by these FAA regulations because I have not flown for over ten years now. However, the key point was this person who had overstayed a visa in this country was released even after his initial arrest. Our INS has a number of very dedicated officers who would really like to actually help keep the USA a free nation. However it has had a succession of supervisors and commissioners who have viewed their job as being the means to welcome every third world anti-American zealot to arrive here. Yes, this condition got worse under William Jefferson Clinton but it existed before he assumed the presidency. It is clear we as nation need to start cleaning up the INS. Certainly we should at minimum not welcome with open arms terrorists dedicated to the destruction of the United States of America.

In case anyone does not yet understand it is possible for the United States of America to lose this war that has been declared against us. We have already been subjected to anthrax attacks admittedly on such a limited scale that we have a statistically insignificant number of deaths from it. Yet the threshold has been passed and we have not obliterated any place in response. The argument that we do not know who to use nuclear weapons while appealing to those who wish to defer action still does not recognize just how significant this opening of the door to weapons of mass destruction being used anonymously against the USA can become. What happens when and if a kilogram or two of anthrax spores in the 1 to 5 micron ranges are dumped over a large city? Oh yes I know the antibiotics will cure everyone according to the optimists. They also believe that the medical system will not be overtaxed and that enough cases will be recognized early on for the public health system to fully respond. Let us presume 2,000,000 people exposed (this is less than a US DOD study supposed in a war game for Los Angles, CA). The same war game saw 1,000,000 cases of inhalation anthrax. While they posited an antibiotic resistant strain of anthrax I will postulate for analysis the exact same anthrax spores sent to Tom Daschile's office. At present the medical community has a 40% recovery rate for inhalation anthrax. That is with very few cases in the system. What happens when there are 1,000,000 cases of inhalation anthrax flooding the hospitals? Do people really think the intensive care given to the identified cases so far will be available to 1,000,000 people simultaneously? Further, the first cases will not be necessarily easily spotted. Flu like symptoms in flu season will probably not get a whole lot of attention from an already heavily utilized health care infrastructure. The American public has already realized much of what I am stating here about anthrax and it is that gut realization that drives the amount of concern exhibited over four deaths. So let us postulate that only 10% of those who come down with inhalation anthrax die within the month and all the skin anthrax cases are cured. Figure at least another million skin anthrax cases from this two-kilogram event. I realize the numbers are way too optimistic but these numbers should sober up anyone. We are talking about 100,000 dead Americans and another one to two million who have needed extensive medical treatment. Nine Hundred Thousand of these people probably needed at least a week of intensive care. This is after all a best case scenario. We have not yet faced this but is it possible? Of coups it is possible we are talking about an organism that reproduces by mitosis. I do not know the specific number of hours for anthrax bacillus to reproduce but let us hypothesize 8 hours per generation and a starting culture of a milligram. After a day there are eight milligrams of bacteria. After two days there are sixty-four milligrams of bacteria. After three days there are 1024 milligrams. By the end of the week there are enough bacilli to refine into two kilograms of spores. If the bacteria divide only once per day then we are merely adding three weeks to the production process.

I have not yet dealt with the implications of other biological warfare threats being used simultaneously. The devastation such a concurrent attack would cause is beyond my capability to estimate but we could easily be talking in the neighborhood of fifty million or more dead. I honestly believe more than that could perish but at that point the numbers almost become irrelevant.

Why have we not yet been subjected to such a biological warfare attack? Clearly whoever has the anthrax already used in letters could mount such an attack. If it is a madman within the USA who is not a part of Al Qaeda there is no rational answer. If it is Al Qaeda then perhaps it is because they are waiting for such an attack to be a part of a broader strategy to advance their cause. The letter attacks on the USA have gotten our attention. The case of the New York City woman who died from inhalation anthrax still has not had a reasonable explanation for her exposure.

I do not wish to sound defeatist but I for one am unconvinced that we as a nation have eliminated the threat of great damage in the USA from Al Qaeda. I understand we still have a large number of illegal aliens within our nation. I understand that there are some Muslims even in the USA who hate America and they are quite unencumbered by any law enforcement agency who do not wish to be seen mistreating a "Mosque." I understand the fact that Islamic myth supports Osama Bin Laden as the Imam al Mahdi. I understand that China that great supplier of goods and services of the USA who contributed to Bill Clinton's campaign is putting forth propaganda that talks of the events of September 11, 2001 as the repayment of a blood debt. I understand that the former President William Clinton has parroted that phrase in a speech to Georgetown University students and I understand that China seeks to regain Taiwan and views the USA as the power that is constraining its expansion. All of these factors mean the USA can lose this war. George W. Bush seems to be generally pursuing a strategy that will allow us to prevail in the operations in Afghanistan. The home front is perhaps another matter where effective strategies are limited by politics. Clearly we will suffer further hits in the USA over the next months maybe then we can control all illegal aliens and deal with all who are making war against the USA.

This is from Japan Defense Forces website Japan Defense Forces :

Air defense capability

(1) Concerning interception capability for air defense, to respond to the future trends of science and technology and to utilize the existing fighter-interceptors (F-15) in the future, implement a test modification program for their modernization.

(2) Concerning anti-air artillery to defend vital and other areas, continue to improve capability of the existing surface-to-air guided missile (Patriot) as well as acquire equipment and material for improvement of the surface-to-air guided missile (Hawk).

In addition, acquire equipment and material for improvement of the short-range surface-to-air guided missiles, and close-range surface-to-air guided missiles, anti-air guns and other systems.

Capability to defend surrounding waters and secure the safety of maritime traffic

(1) Concerning vessels, build destroyers, submarines, mine-sweepers, missile craft and other ships. In constructing destroyers, replacement and modernization shall be promoted while paying attention to the overall efficiency of the escort ship units.

(2) Concerning aircraft, continue to acquire the patrol helicopters (SH-60J). To respond to the future trends of science and technology and to utilize the existing fixed-wing patrol aircraft (P-3O in the future, implement a modification program for necessary upgrading of its capability. In addition, with regard to the follow-on aircraft to the fixed-wing patrol aircraft (P-3O, take necessary measures after conducting a study.

Capability to counter airborne and amphibious landing invasion

(1) Concerning such capability as to destroy enemy in the outer seas and coastal waters, acquire new fighter-support (F-2) as the follow-on aircraft to the existing fighter-support (F-1) as well as continue to acquire the surface-to-ship guided missiles (SSM-1).

(2) Concerning fire power, armored mobility and anti-tank artillery, with the emphasis upon replacement and modernization of the obsolete equipment, acquire such systems as guns, multiple launch rocket systems, tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank artillery including the multi-purpose guided missile systems. To improve airborne fire power, continue to acquire anti-tank helicopters (AH-IS).

Transportation capability and mobility

Concerning transportation capability and mobility, continue to acquire such systems as the transportation helicopter (CH-47) and the transportation ship. In addition, with regard to the follow-on aircraft to the existing transport aircraft (C-1), take necessary measures after conducting a study.

Conduct a study on in-flight refueling function about such points as performance and operational concepts of tanker aircraft, reach a conclusion and deal with this.

Intelligence, command, control and communication capability (1) Concerning such capability as warning and surveillance, continue to upgrade the fixed type three-dimensional radar systems and transportable warning and surveillance radar systems. Achieve initial operational capability of the AWACS aircraft and improve the posture for surveillance of the surrounding waters and airspace by vessels, aircraft and other systems. In addition, take necessary measures to enhance rationalization and efficiency of the aircraft control and warning units.

(2) Concerning intelligence, improve the function by creation of a new central intelligence organization to enhance such points as a structure comprehensively capable of high-level gathering and analysis of intelligence including strategic intelligence, and establish an efficient structure of the intelligence units. In addition, acquire various measures of intelligence gathering and retain highly able intelligence specialists.

(3) Concerning command, control and communication, to ensure command and control structures by which the central authority can send timely and appropriate directives from joint and integrated point of view, when the headquarter building of the Defense Agency is relocated, build up a New Central Command System (NCCS). In addition, continue to promote various measures such as establishment of the Integrated Defense Digital Network (IDDN), improvement of command and control capability and utilization of communication via satellite.

Sustainability and invulnerability

Concerning sustainability and reduction of vulnerability, continue to take various measures including ammunition stockpiling.

Education and training scheme

To enhance the fulfillment, efficiency and rationalization of the scheme for education and training, retain in education and training sections the same systems as those deployed to the front line units. As a part of these efforts acquire the fighter-interceptors (F-15DJ) and the new fighter-supports (F-2).

In addition, acquire such aircraft as intermediate level jet trainer (T-4), a training support ship and various equipment for education and training, as well as improve environments for education and training such as facilities for training.

Search and rescue structure

To enhance the structure for search and rescue and its efficiency, continue to acquire such systems as the rescue flying boat (US-IA), the rescue helicopters (UH-60J) and the search and rescue aircraft (U-125A).

Personnel, and medical and sanitary affairs

To retain personnel with high morale and capability and broad perspective, promote such various measures in personnel administration and medical and sanitary affairs as improvement of treatment of the personnel, and interchanges of personnel with the other ministries and agencies and the private sector.

At the same time, to improve the living and working conditions of the personnel, while paying attention to such factors as the climate and the job characteristics, and transition to the new organizational structure, continue to promote construction and improvement of barracks and quarters as well as provision and fulfillment of welfare facilities.

Facilities

(1) Promote reconstruction of old ramshackle buildings and provide facilities required for such purposes as acquisition of equipment and for organization of the units. Construct and improve facilities for ammunition storage and training.

(2) To achieve greater harmony with the local communities, continue to promote measures for the areas surrounding bases.

Technological research and development

Promote research and development of such system and equipment as various kinds of guided missiles including a new medium-range surface-to-air guided missile and a rescue flying boat (improved US-IA) while paying due attention to holding down the total life-cycle costs. In addition, enhance scheme for technological research and development. Taking the trend of technological progress into sufficient consideration, conduct various researches including those for technological demonstration to contribute to establish advanced technologies.

Measures to enhance the credibility of the Japan-U.S. Security Arrangements

(1) Promote exchange of information and policy consultation. (2) Establish an effective posture for cooperation in operational areas including joint studies, exercises and training as well as enhancement of mutual support in those areas.

(3) Make efforts to enhance broad mutual exchange in the areas of equipment and technology such as Japan-U.S. joint research.

(4) Continue to promote host nation support and measures to facilitate smooth and effective stationing of the U.S. forces in Japan including consolidation, realignment and reduction of the facilities and areas in Okinawa.

Disaster relief and other activities

Take various measures to provide timely and appropriate disaster relief and other activities in large-scale disasters and various other situations which require the protection of lives or assets.

Contribution to creation of a more stable security environment

(1) Take various measures to fulfill in timely and appropriate way such missions as international peace cooperation assignments.

(2) Continue to promote security dialogues and exchanges among defense authorities to enhance mutual confidence with countries including neighboring states.

(3) Cooperate with efforts of the United Nations and other international organizations in the areas of arms control and disarmament.

Others

(1) Concerning ballistic missile defense, a conclusion shall be reached after conducting from comprehensive point of view a sufficient study on such aspects as its usefulness, cost-effectiveness.

(2) To hold down procurement prices and other costs, while responding to the trend toward information-oriented society, make efforts to establish an efficient scheme for procurement and supply

This seems to be focused at China, primarily....

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