Analyzing Al Qaeda

The Somalia disaster where the bodies of US Army Rangers were dragged through the streets, the Kobar towers bombing, the attack on the USS Cole and now the events of September 11, 2001 have shown us that the United States is in a shooting war with Islamic militants. In order to effectively engage these enemies it is important to understand their goals and methods and evaluate the strategies and tactics the United States of America is employing to defeat this enemy. The identified leader of Al Qaeda is Osama bin Laden. Understanding his role is crucial. It is also necessary to understand the role of the Islamic faith and myth structure in how he gains support and recruits followers. This understanding may give us some clues as to how he will act and what we can expect. By comparing his probable actions against potential US actions we can garner an appreciation of those actions utility in eliminating this enemy.

Osama bin Laden is the son of a Saudi construction billionaire. He has inherited an estimated $300,000,000.00. He has a history of being a wastrel in the European fleshpots and then ostensibly became a devout Muslim. Over the years he has been an ally of the United States of America in the struggle to liberate Afghanistan from domination by the USSR and he has been an avowed enemy of the USA most especially after the Gulf war. His family has long been aligned with the ruling family of Saudi Arabia. The supposed conversion from construction tycoon to devout Muslim Emir was in the Afghan war. According to him he is religiously opposed to infidels being on the "holy ground" of Saudi Arabia. Whatever his true motivation the fact is he is now thought of by some to be a religious figure of Islam. It is this fact that we have to deal with. Since we are at war with his organization we must presume that he is calculating and cold in his decisions. Further we must presume he did not declare a war he did not think he could win.

The response of the Bush administration has been measured and it seems very well directed so far. From Al Qaeda statements it is clear that they view this war as a war of Islam against the USA and the whole of Western Civilization. Bush has not engaged the whole Islamic world in this war and has not simply ignored the September 11, 2001 attack as merely another criminal investigation. The bombing campaign in Afghanistan has been well though out and executed to minimize Muslim casualties. The premise is that the USA is not waging a war against Islam. It remains an open question how long this strategy can endure. It is not the USA's actions that will govern any such change rather the change will be driven entirely within the Muslim world. Already in Indonesia we have seen a very strong pro-Al Qaeda reaction. There are demonstrations of disputed size and importance in Pakistan and perhaps most significantly there is a faction with the ISI and the Pakistani military and scientific communities that do support Al Qaeda. The former head of the ISI is very much a Taliban supporter and although he is no longer in office one must presume many other pro Taliban individuals remain within that organization. Pakistan has a rather long history of military coups. Musharef may well be facing a coup at the worst possible time for the USA. The exact timing will probably be after the USA has substantial forces committed on the ground in Afghanistan.

One key point many do not appreciate is that there is a reason that Al Qaeda is headquartered out of Afghanistan. It is the ancient land of Kurushan mentioned in the Koran. There is a passage from Mohammed in the Koran that states when you see the Black Flags from Kurushan join the Jihad if you must crawl over ice. This Koranic command is interwoven with the end of day's prophecies that exist within the Koran. It will have a great impact on many Muslims and may cause a majority of Muslims to at least sympathize with Al Qaeda. There are many ways that Osama Bin Laden could exploit this sympathy. The most obvious is that should he be reported dead in Afghanistan he could resurface in some other Islamic nation amidst a crowd of people that would at least cause those who choose targets to pause before bombing. It does not matter in the least that Osama may or may not be in Afghanistan at present it merely matters that that is where he is now seen as initiating the Jihad.

Much has been written about how the Taliban and Al Qaeda are isolated in Afghanistan. Yet no one knows what sources of support Al Qaeda really has. The recent revelation about the Chinese leadership reveling in the pictures from September 11, 2001 should give everyone pause. No one has any doubts about the fact that China has many nuclear weapons. China has been shown to ruthlessly pursue absolutely any course of action, which they think will benefit the current leadership of China. Would they be willing to deliver some nuclear weapons to Al Qaeda to have them use them against the USA? Time will answer that question. It should be clear to anyone that the use of nuclear weapons against the USA would severely damage our nation and result in unacceptable casualties here. China has officially signed on to anti-terrorism conventions but in the past the People's Republic of China has ignored international conventions that get in their way. Does Al Qaeda have nuclear weapons? George W. Bush has stated they have sought to obtain them. Do we have a firm answer to that question? NO. Other potential sources of Al Qaeda nuclear weapons include Pakistani nuclear scientists and contraband enriched uranium or plutonium, or perhaps stolen Russian weapons.

In the past the mere possession of nuclear weapons by a hostile entity was not necessarily a major cause for concern for the USA. Distance provided some protection, as did our capability to assure the destruction of anyone who targeted the USA. Now we are faced wit a threat that comes from no one government rather from an amalgam of individuals and entities scattered around the globe that has no firm base whose attack they can not tolerate. Nor does the need to cross a vast distance necessarily stop the threat. Such a weapon need not be carried in a bomber or on the nose of a missile. Putting a megaton nuclear warhead in the trunk of car or the back of a van can deliver it to a city. Getting it into the USA may not be much of a challenge either. Routinely trailer trucks full of contraband enter our nation across the Mexican border. However at least the Mexican border is somewhat secure compared to the Canadian border and out seaports. Oh customs service and US Coast Guard are overworked and stretched way too thin. Remember a ship carrying a nuclear weapon does not even have to unload its cargo merely enter the port and set it off. No it might not achieve the most efficient destruction but from the terrorists perspective a million dead more or less is close enough. They do not really give a rat's butt if they only get 1,000,000 with a strike versus 1,255,348 that an optimum air burst would achieve. Illegal aliens one must presume and or American Muslims would accomplish such a strike.

Since September 11, 2001 approximately 1,100 individuals have been arrested and/or detained for that attack on the USA. So far reports are that these individuals are not talking. A large percentage of these people are illegal aliens. In Chicago's O'Hare airport an illegal alien was apprehended with multiple knives inside the gate area. At this point I will forego discussion of the supposed security provided by these FAA regulations because I have not flown for over ten years now. However, the key point was this person who had overstayed a visa in this country was released even after his initial arrest. Our INS has a number of very dedicated officers who would really like to actually help keep the USA a free nation. However it has had a succession of supervisors and commissioners who have viewed their job as being the means to welcome every third world anti-American zealot to arrive here. Yes, this condition got worse under William Jefferson Clinton but it existed before he assumed the presidency. It is clear we as nation need to start cleaning up the INS. Certainly we should at minimum not welcome with open arms terrorists dedicated to the destruction of the United States of America.

In case anyone does not yet understand it is possible for the United States of America to lose this war that has been declared against us. We have already been subjected to anthrax attacks admittedly on such a limited scale that we have a statistically insignificant number of deaths from it. Yet the threshold has been passed and we have not obliterated any place in response. The argument that we do not know who to use nuclear weapons while appealing to those who wish to defer action still does not recognize just how significant this opening of the door to weapons of mass destruction being used anonymously against the USA can become. What happens when and if a kilogram or two of anthrax spores in the 1 to 5 micron ranges are dumped over a large city? Oh yes I know the antibiotics will cure everyone according to the optimists. They also believe that the medical system will not be overtaxed and that enough cases will be recognized early on for the public health system to fully respond. Let us presume 2,000,000 people exposed (this is less than a US DOD study supposed in a war game for Los Angles, CA). The same war game saw 1,000,000 cases of inhalation anthrax. While they posited an antibiotic resistant strain of anthrax I will postulate for analysis the exact same anthrax spores sent to Tom Daschile's office. At present the medical community has a 40% recovery rate for inhalation anthrax. That is with very few cases in the system. What happens when there are 1,000,000 cases of inhalation anthrax flooding the hospitals? Do people really think the intensive care given to the identified cases so far will be available to 1,000,000 people simultaneously? Further, the first cases will not be necessarily easily spotted. Flu like symptoms in flu season will probably not get a whole lot of attention from an already heavily utilized health care infrastructure. The American public has already realized much of what I am stating here about anthrax and it is that gut realization that drives the amount of concern exhibited over four deaths. So let us postulate that only 10% of those who come down with inhalation anthrax die within the month and all the skin anthrax cases are cured. Figure at least another million skin anthrax cases from this two-kilogram event. I realize the numbers are way too optimistic but these numbers should sober up anyone. We are talking about 100,000 dead Americans and another one to two million who have needed extensive medical treatment. Nine Hundred Thousand of these people probably needed at least a week of intensive care. This is after all a best case scenario. We have not yet faced this but is it possible? Of coups it is possible we are talking about an organism that reproduces by mitosis. I do not know the specific number of hours for anthrax bacillus to reproduce but let us hypothesize 8 hours per generation and a starting culture of a milligram. After a day there are eight milligrams of bacteria. After two days there are sixty-four milligrams of bacteria. After three days there are 1024 milligrams. By the end of the week there are enough bacilli to refine into two kilograms of spores. If the bacteria divide only once per day then we are merely adding three weeks to the production process.

I have not yet dealt with the implications of other biological warfare threats being used simultaneously. The devastation such a concurrent attack would cause is beyond my capability to estimate but we could easily be talking in the neighborhood of fifty million or more dead. I honestly believe more than that could perish but at that point the numbers almost become irrelevant.

Why have we not yet been subjected to such a biological warfare attack? Clearly whoever has the anthrax already used in letters could mount such an attack. If it is a madman within the USA who is not a part of Al Qaeda there is no rational answer. If it is Al Qaeda then perhaps it is because they are waiting for such an attack to be a part of a broader strategy to advance their cause. The letter attacks on the USA have gotten our attention. The case of the New York City woman who died from inhalation anthrax still has not had a reasonable explanation for her exposure.

I do not wish to sound defeatist but I for one am unconvinced that we as a nation have eliminated the threat of great damage in the USA from Al Qaeda. I understand we still have a large number of illegal aliens within our nation. I understand that there are some Muslims even in the USA who hate America and they are quite unencumbered by any law enforcement agency who do not wish to be seen mistreating a "Mosque." I understand the fact that Islamic myth supports Osama Bin Laden as the Imam al Mahdi. I understand that China that great supplier of goods and services of the USA who contributed to Bill Clinton's campaign is putting forth propaganda that talks of the events of September 11, 2001 as the repayment of a blood debt. I understand that the former President William Clinton has parroted that phrase in a speech to Georgetown University students and I understand that China seeks to regain Taiwan and views the USA as the power that is constraining its expansion. All of these factors mean the USA can lose this war. George W. Bush seems to be generally pursuing a strategy that will allow us to prevail in the operations in Afghanistan. The home front is perhaps another matter where effective strategies are limited by politics. Clearly we will suffer further hits in the USA over the next months maybe then we can control all illegal aliens and deal with all who are making war against the USA.

This is the first of several examinations of what the dangers are. Obviously at least our President seems to be aware of the dangers and he does seem to be moving towards the steps necessary to win. IMHO he is having to fight numerous political battles along the way to get America into a postition to prevail.

Stay well - Stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

China is very interested in MidEast oil and who controls it. China and Osama Bin Laden want the USA to cut and run from the MidEast. So do many of our libertarians and Pat Buchanan type of isolationists. I am somewhat isolationist but the facts are that if the great superpower USA is not there China and Russia will be.

And Iraq/Iran/ Bin Laden will carve up the militarily weak oil producers such as Saudi, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. They will control MidEast oil and will be able to cut off Europe, Japan and the USA at will. China will provide the nuclear cover for all this. This is how China benefits.

Would China provide serious weaponry to Al Qieda? You better believe it. Al-Qieda pins us down in Afghanistan and elsewhere while China gets to invade Taiwan and pull off other schemes.

The last paragraph pretty much sums up the situation.

Bin Ladin, as pointed out, believes that he can win this war. Americans, want to believe that terrorism will go away. That is not the nature of terrorism, but Americans haven't had to live with terrorism in their lives. There are going to be some tough lessons to be learned.

I am going to make a run down to Nogales to load up on Amoxillin ($10/100 500mg caps). A 60 day regimen costs $30 vs. $600 for Cipro and works just as well (from everything I have been able to read). Cheap insurance.

Regards, and keep reloading...

beowolf

It is not clear what level of complicity China has with these terrorists groups yet. I doubt they would leave themselves exposed to a direct connection, however, if you have read the public document by two Chinese generals discussing the concept of "assymetrical warfare", it does cause persons like myself to wonder.

I don't think there is any doubt that China is using proxies to strengthen its position on the world's stage, however it would not be in their interests to go to all out war with us at this point or any point in the near future for that matter.

Americans need to understand that the USSR is gone, and China will be our next enemy for at least the next 50 years. It will be a cold war type war, not an overt war because the costs are too high for each side to conduct this type of foreign policy. However, you will see proxy wars much like the USSR and USA fought in Korea and Vietnam and Afghanastan, and this very well could be a proxy war prodded on by China.

In my opinion, we should make it clear to the Chinese that if they use Muslim extremists to distract us from east asia, we will gladly run the millitants from Central Asia into their western provinces and stoke the fires already burning in their back yards.

We should be making it clear to the ChiComs that muslim extremism is a double edged sword with no hilt, and the simple act of brandishing this weapon will cause harm to the bearer, as we ourselves have learnded by using muslim extremists against the USSR. Time will tell how the Chinese react to our movements that will shortly occur against Iraq, Syria and possibly Pakistan, which is a good buddy of theirs.

IMHO China would prefer to go after Japan when it is a ripe fruit for plucking. that is they would prefer to have japan totally isolated before they take it over. They have memories of World War II and old debts to repay. with Taiwan, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and the Phillipines under their domination japan would be a ripe fruit indeed. The additional industrial base would make it very desirable.

The willingness of China to provide Al Qaeda the full range of weaponry is something I fear we will learn about after the fact. Some have stated that due to air sampling of the atmospheric tests we would be able to prove China had provided the weaponry. I note the vast majority of nuclear tests over the last twenty years have been under ground with no fallout to sample. Things change over time.

Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown

harpseal--China still does atmospheric testing.

Also, I doubt that China will want to give Al-Qaeda nukes, because the problem comes up--what happens when Al-Qaeda decides that Buddhism, Taoism, and Confucianism cannot coexist with Islam?

Would you give a person you KNOW to be a complete psychotic fruitcake a deadly weapon and say, "oh, just use it on those people over there?"

Actually the last five series of tests were underground. Now if you check you will also find China has finally ratified the non proliferation treaty and the atmospheric test ban treaties.

Now the big question is will China actually gfive them such weapons? I do not know that answer. It is possible dependant upon how good an ally China percieves Al Qaeda to be. It is also possible that the view there is given the chances of both the Islamic world and the USA being devasted by an exchange of such weapons they would then be the hegenomic power. will that be their decision? I note that the leadership of the PRC is aged and desparate to remain in power and to expand their power. I believe above I stated it was a high risk option. Sometimes nations take high risk options and the consequences for everyone are most unpleasent.

Stay well - stay safe - stay armed - Yorktown

Some have stated that due to air sampling of the atmospheric tests we would be able to prove China had provided the weaponry.

How hard would it be for China to muddy up the mix that is put into a nuke? So that the radiation signature would be unique and identifiable with no one! If the ChiComs are smart enough to go asymmetrical they are smart enough to do the above.

At this point Osama Bin Laden is the champion in asymmetrical warfare. For a total investment of 2 million tops he is causing us to spend half a trillion on fighting wars, enhanced security at home, destruction to lower Manhattan and Pentagon, bailing out airlines and others. Add in the damage to the economy, damage to stock prices, and I think half a billion worth of damage was done by the Bin Laden mafia.

How that for a leveraged investment. 2 million causes your enemy 500 million in damages. How much economic fallout would come from a few small nukes set off in a few downtowns...Downtown Seattle, New York City, Chicago?

Very hard. We can identify the source of the bomb material to not only which reactor it came out of, but which part of the reactor and which batch of fuel cycled through. Multiple reactors for material wouldn't help any--just implicate more sites.

Look up HAARP--some of the more exotic applications proposed would allow remote identification and tagging of radioisotope sources, even from underground tests that don't vent or nuclear reactors that are actually deep underground.

Who has claimed responsibility for 9-11-2001? No one. Deniability and going asymmetric is the wave of the future for the weaker party. Osama has shown the way for copycats. The events of 9-11 have given a big boost to making sneak attacks that cannot be pinned on anyone.
We should consider a few deniable actions ourselves. Why not put anthrax into the Iraqi mail system tomorrow? Two can play the game

I don't think there is any doubt that China is using proxies to strengthen its position

Proxies are the way to go. Why invite defeat by confronting directly?

China has a Muslim population of about 200,000,000. They would be wise to get on the right side of this fight because terrorism will be in their back yard as well ... it's only a matter of when.

If they are entertaining the thought of occupying any 'Arab' lands, they should keep in mind that, according to the Islamic fundamentalists, they are also 'Infidels'. Worse for them is the fact that they, not being 'of the book' (ie; not Christians or Jews), aren't even given the opportunity to convert to Islam according to the Quran. They are simply to be killed in the 'Jihad'.

They will regret getting in bed with Bin Laden ... if that is their intention.

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