Posted on 10/01/2001 6:42:11 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Driving around Florida Southern College's filled parking lot Thursday evening looking for a space confirmed a suspicion I had had a few weeks ago.
Gov. Jeb Bush may have a she-coon on his hands.
The last time he encountered the breed was in his first run for governor in 1994. During a debate, the native Floridian he was running against, the late Gov. Lawton Chiles, told him that the "he-coon walks just before the light of day."
Bush was befuddled, and then, defeated. It was the turning point in a close election.
While watching, on television, another native Floridian talk politics on the campaign trail several weeks ago, I was reminded of the ol' he-coon. The politician was a woman in a wide-brimmed straw hat and a floral-print dress. A reincarnation, of sorts, of Chiles' plaid shirt with rolled-up sleeves and well-worn hiking boots. She looked earnestly into the faces of those to whom she spoke. They smiled back like she'd offered them ice water on a hot Florida day.
She exuded the Lawton Chiles aura: down to earth, underdog, populist, blunt and not your everyday politician.
I was surprised that I had such a thought about former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno. She has more baggage around from the Clinton administration than a Samsonite warehouse. Weeks ago, I'd dismissed her in a conversation about politics, saying she may win the Democratic primary, but she couldn't contend against Bush.
She is abrasive. She is from South Florida -- a section of the state distrusted by the rest of it.
She may, indeed, as the polls show, have enough name-recognition and money-raising ability to easily win a Democratic primary. Two big names dropped from the race shortly after she announced.
But she would still face the obvious Republican candidate -- Gov. Bush, who, mano-a-mano, was a solid 20 percent ahead in one early poll.
Then again, Florida has had two Republican governors before Bush and neither could manage to win re-election. Women and minorities can provide the crucial votes needed by a candidate; Reno could attract both groups. My first thought while seeking an elusive parking space was that there must be something else going on at the college at the same time.
This is, after all, Polk County, and Reno is not only a Democrat, but a Clinton Democrat. When Chiles ran against Bush in 1994, Polk voted for Bush over its native son.
Reno had been scheduled as the speaker to open the college's Florida Lecture Series long before she decided to run for governor. The election is a year away. Surely not this many would come to hear a once-was attorney general talk about Florida history? There must be other things going on.
The college had moved the program from a smaller setting to Branscomb Auditorium, which seats about 1,800. The lower-level seats in the auditorium were nearly filled.
Reno spoke for about 45 minutes, telling how her grandfather, who didn't speak English at the time, didn't feel welcome in his new country until he arrived in Bartow in the early 1920s.
She told of how her mother built the house on the edge of the Everglades in which Reno grew up, because her parents were too poor to have it built. It was built on 21 acres, costing $11,500 back then, of what is now Kendall outside of Miami. It is the home where she and her mother rode out Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Except for a single lost shingle and screen damage, it was unaffected.
Reno told of losing her first election for the state Legislature in South Florida (barely losing to a Republican in the Nixon landslide of 1972), and waking up the day after the election feeling good about herself because she had followed the advice of her political mentor and had been true to herself rather than just telling voters what she thought they wanted to hear.
She answered questions for 10 or 15 minutes more. When she did not have an answer to one question, she asked the questioner to stay after the program and educate her.
She rides around the state in a red pickup truck. What you see with Reno is what you get.
Reno may radiate aw-shucks, but behind the scenes she has a sophisticated campaign organization, which, those close to her say, she mostly ignores in favor of gut feelings. Or, as she told one FSC student who asked for advice in his run for an office in student government, "Make sure you know what you are talking about. And don't be afraid to lose for standing up for what you believe in. You tried your best. Pick yourself up and move on."
That, she said, was exactly what she did after the Waco disaster and the controversy over reuniting Elian Gonzalez with his Cuban father.
I would have bet that conservative Polk County wouldn't have turned out more than a few hundred people to see Reno. But, then again, I didn't think a lanky Lakelander would be elected to the U.S. Senate by walking from the tip of the Florida Panhandle to the Florida Keys either.
In the long run, Thursday's turnout means nothing. Republican leaders in Polk can easily dismiss it as people turning out to see the first woman to be appointed U.S. attorney general, and only the second Floridian ever to hold such a high political office.
But Reno was well-received, and appeared to be just as personable a campaigner close up as she seems on television.
Assuming she wins the Democratic primary, can she beat Bush?
Probably not, at this juncture. But, then again, the time just before the light of day is far away. And the governor has this thing about underestimating the craftiness of the native raccoon population.
Isn't it odd that retired people for the northeast vote for tax and spend liberals all their life, and then when they retire they move to a low tax state and vote for tax and spend liberals?
This is an education problem, pure and simple.
I doubt she'll befuddle Bush in the campaign much. I'd be more concerned about her spraying his staff down with her Heckler & Koch & setting fire to his campaign HQ with CS gas canisters.
That's hog-wash. The turning point in the election was the use of push-polls by Chiles - scaring the seniors with more DemocRAT lies.
Too bad those poor gassed and incinerated children could not "move on". If there was Justice at the justice dept. She would have been sentenced to death for ordering the use of deadly force at Waco.
Should read: The old witch rides around the state on a red broom.
I really don't think Reno will win. I see 9/11 as a sea change in the average voters' view on the Republicans and Democrats--or at least conservatives vice leftists. Anyway, when the time comes, one of us will be right. Do you mind if I say I hope it's me?
As my wife is fond of saying, it's better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it.
She CAN NOT be underestimated. I'd rather face her than a Pete Peterson, but we can not be complacent here.
I posted this on another thread.
This is not a gimme though. Reno is not viewed as Geoff Fieger by everyone. Here's the trouble. Without Nader, Gore would have won. The blacks there will out for blood and there will be a large grassroots effort among the NAAC(communist)P to beat Jeb. I also think Palm Beach and Broward will be after him too. They feel robbed, even though they wern't.
It will come down to TURNOUT.
The dems won
Alachua[Gainesville](by 13,000)
Broward[Ft Lauderdale, etc](by 210,000),
Gasden[Quincy, near Talahassee](by 5000),
Hernado[Rural north of Tampa](by 2000),
Jefferson[East of Talahassee](by 600),
Leon[Talahasee](by 22,000),
Miami-Dade(by 39000),
Monroe[Key West](by 400),
Orange[Orlando](by 6000),
Osceloa[Kissimmee-St Cloud](by 1900),
Palm Beach[Boca Raton/Palm Beach](by 117,000),
Pasco[North of Tampa](by 1000),
Pinellas[St. Pete](by 16,000),
St Lucie[Fort Pierce](by 7000),
Volusia[Daytona Beach](by 15,000).
This is not counting the Nader voters. Bush needs a turnout in Dixie, Cubans, and Military Absentees, along with conservatives in general to win.
Bush needs a HUGE turnout from these areas.
Bay(+18,000) (Panama City)
Brevard(+19000) (Melbourne)
Duval(+50,000) (Jacksonville)
Escambia(+33000) (Pensacola)
Higlands(+6000) (Sebring)
Hillsborough(+11000) (Tampa area)
Indian River(+9000) (Winter Beach)
Lake (+14000) (near Orlando)
Lee (+27000) (Ft Myers)
Manatee(+8000) (Brandenton)
Marion(+11000) (Ocala)
Martin(+7000) (North of Palm Beach)
Nassau(+9500) (North of Jacksonville)
Oklaoosa (+36000) (Fort Walton Beach near Pensacola)
Polk (+15,000) (Lakeland)
Santa Rosa(+15000) (near Pensacola)
Seminole(+16000) (Winter Park, near Orlando)
St Johns(+20000) (St Augustine)
Walton(+6500) (Near Panama City)
Could a VERY HIGH Palm Beach, Broward, Gainesville, Talahassee, Non-Cuban Dade, and Black Vote, take out the Cuban and North Fla vote?? That's the question there. I think Central Fla decides this.
I think Florida and Michigan are similar politically with a strong regional politics, although Florida is about 4-5% to the right of MI.
Right now, I predict 50%-48% Jeb over Reno.
Everyone is saying that Miller is a shoo-in for the special election, but I am beginning to worry a bit.
There are a lot of yellow dog democrats in this area who are conservative yet still vote democratic because grandpa did. I have noticed there are probably 50 Briese (however you spell his name) signs up in this area for every Miller one. I have also noticed a few Miller signs have disappeared.
I would be surprised the demoncrats are spending this much money unless they smell a possible victory. Possibly they plan a secret "get out the vote" plan since this election is not being publicised.
From what I have seen of Miller he will be better than Scarborough, who was good but not as great as some think.
I actually can't think of a single example off hand but would occassionally see something which Scarborough did which was not real conservative, still he was better than 99% of the rest of Congress.
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