Posted on 10/05/2026 6:16:12 AM PDT by Red Badger
Flávio Bolsonaro defied the polls by finishing ahead of Lula, forcing an October 25 runoff as conservative candidates captured major victories across Brazil and strengthened their position in the nation’s Senate.
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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula 47.24% to 44.91% with 99% of reporting completed Sunday night.
The presidential contest will proceed to an October 25 runoff after Flávio fell below the 50% needed for an outright victory.
Conservative candidates scored major victories across São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina.
Michelle Bolsonaro won a Senate seat, while the Liberal Party appeared positioned to hold the Senate’s largest bloc.
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Brazil’s presidential election produced the kind of surprise that sends pollsters scrambling and conservatives cheering. For the year leading into the vote, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had led the polls, even as his advantage narrowed in recent months.
Those polls missed the mark. With 99% of reporting completed around 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro stood on top with 47.24% of the vote, compared with Lula’s 44.91%.
The margin was close, but the outcome was far better for Flávio than polling had suggested. Early in the night, he appeared to have a chance to capture the presidency without going through another round of voting.
Flávio held something like 51% of the vote at that stage. A candidate needs 50% to win without a runoff, but the more conservative states reported their results faster, and his share eventually declined.
The presidential contest will therefore proceed to a runoff on October 25. The result still left Flávio looking very likely to win and raised the prospect of Brazil turning right, as numerous other Central and South American countries have done in recent years.
Such a shift would carry political and economic consequences across the region. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio would gain a new ally who would likely join the Shield of the Americas and assist the fight against cartels and other criminal organizations plaguing the Americas.
Brazil also has the largest economy in Latin America, making the result a potentially significant economic victory. A Flávio win would further isolate the remaining socialist governments in the region, including the government of Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, while likely increasing pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua.
Argentine President Javier Milei celebrated Sunday night with a caption translated from Spanish: “FREEDOM ADVANCES IN BRAZIL. Congratulations, dear friend @FlavioBolsonaro, on this historic election against the communist Lula. The American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom. I hope that soon we can start working together so that Argentina and Brazil continue to be great trading, cultural, and political partners. The opportunities for our nations, working together, are infinite. LONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!”
Neither Trump nor Rubio had publicly addressed the result by Sunday night. Several Republican members of Congress had already praised the news, however, including Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez of Florida and Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio.
The presidential race was only one piece of Brazil’s sweeping election night. Voters were also choosing all 27 governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies with its 513 seats, 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats, and state legislatures.
Results beyond the presidential contest offered additional encouragement for Brazil’s right. Lula’s side lost in the three states that typically decide Brazilian elections, adding to the evening’s broader conservative success.
São Paulo, Brazil’s largest state, reelected Tarcísio de Freitas as governor with about 63% of the vote. De Freitas previously served as infrastructure minister under former President Jair Bolsonaro.
Minas Gerais, the second-largest state, elected Bolsonaro ally Cleitinho Azevedo with about 55%. Sérgio Moro, the judge who once sent Lula to prison, won Paraná while running on Bolsonaro’s party line.
A former army officer allied with Bolsonaro won Rio Grande do Sul with about 58% of the vote. Santa Catarina also reelected its governor from Bolsonaro’s party with about 68%.
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, won a Senate seat in the capital, Brasília, during her first run for office. Two more of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons and his brother also won elections, while the Liberal Party appeared positioned to hold the Senate’s largest bloc.
Anything could still happen before the October 25 runoff, but conservative excitement was already unmistakable. Brazil’s voters delivered a far stronger showing for the right than expected, bringing another Latin American rejection of socialism tantalizingly close.
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It means a runoff. Makes me wonder what the 3rd candidate was about. Who did he/she really want to win knowing it was not going to be him or her? The issues in Brazil are serious enough and the lines have been drawn. 3 weeks of unnecessary drum rolling before a result. At least it’s better than the 3 months Wesley Hunt put Texas through.
Flavio needs to tighten up his security. Not beyond Lula to uh, be sad if something were to happen. 🤔
Flavio needs to get a flight to Havana.....or Beijing.......
OOPS, sorry meant Lula!........
All these numerous "turns" have happened after USAID was defunded.
Hmmm...
Saw some info that USAID money has dried up in Brazil, which of course means less money for leftists.
“...defied the polls...”
Hopefully here, too.
What we’re seeing in Brazil is what would be happened, or have happened, here if the Javerts had gotten their way and Trump was in jail. Someone else, maybe Don Jr, more likely DeSantis, would have run against Biden-then-Harris and would have gotten the Trump vote because of MAGA anger.
That scumbag Biden helped Lula steal the last one and his people control the process. It will be a miracle if they can get Lula out of there. It is amazing how much impact shutting down USAID has had in so many places. It I might end up being Trump’s greatest accomplishment of his second term.
One that will be undone the moment he leaves the WH.
Some info on the 8% of votes for other candidates:
Of the TEN also-ran candidates, three received above 2% of the total vote. From what I can glean online, all three are centrist or center-right, implying that Bolsonaro will get most of their votes in the runoff.
2.9% Augusto Cury of the Avante party is a psychiatrist and celebrity author of self-help books about his novel theories of how the brain interacts with emotions. Into mental-health and educational reforms. Who his voters would turn to is a mystery.
2.2% Renan Santos of Missao is presented as Right/Far Right, so Lula will get no love from his supporters.
2.2% Ronaldo Caiado of PSD is presented by Wikipedia as Centrist/Center Right, but PSD stands for Party of Social Democrats, which sounds leftish to me. His platform was about educational and economic reforms.
0.5% The remnants are spread over seven more candidates. Even if these are all lefties (which I doubt — it’s likely split down the middle), it’s not a factor.
Bolsonaro better have good friends in the Brazilian Army.
fore Lula has them arrested?
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