Minnesota Can Go Red This Year. Here’s Why.

PJ Media ^ | 10/04/2026 | Matt Margolis

[SeekAndFind]

I’ve said before that Republicans head into the 2026 midterms in a stronger position than the national polls suggest, and Minnesota is a big reason why. Along with New Hampshire, the state has become an overlooked Senate pickup opportunity, which is remarkable, given that Minnesota hasn't backed a Republican for president since 1972.

The Senate race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-Minn.) and Republican Michele Tafoya is a near dead heat. Big Data Poll has Flanagan ahead by two points. InsiderAdvantage has her up by one. KSTP/SurveyUSA found the race tied. Flanagan’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is a mere 1.6 points, well within the margin of error.

So why is a Democrat struggling in a state this blue?

Start with her record. Flanagan supports permanent gender surgeries for minors, has called for completely defunding ICE, and wants full citizenship for every illegal immigrant in Minnesota. Those positions sit well outside the mainstream, even there.

Then there's the benefits fraud linked to the Somali community. Separate polling shows fraud ranks as a top issue for Minnesota voters, which greatly benefits Tafoya. The poll, which SurveyUSA conducted, found that more voters (14%) ranked fraud an important issue than healthcare (12%).

The benefits fraud scandal already forced Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) to abandon his reelection campaign. For some reason, Minnesota Democrats thought nominating his radical lieutenant governor was a great idea. Clearly, it wasn't. Flanagan can't separate herself from party leadership that looked the other way for years, largely out of fear of losing Somali support.

On top of that, law and order is breaking down.

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TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: midterms2026; minnesota

[Bob Wills is still the king]

Say what you will, but Minnesota is full of farmers and tech people these days, and they’re all unhappy with the hit to their incomes from various tariff taxes Trump has imposed.

Ethanol is a big thing to the farmers who grow corn for it, riding tractors that burn diesel fuel that’s been increasing weekly.

Oh, and then there’s all the Minnesota good will arising out of the ICE sweeps.

[crusty old prospector]

Sure thing. So will Massachusetts.

[Sarah Barracuda]

If Minnesota is THAT close, there is no way it can be a total blue tsunami

[DIRTYSECRET]

Let’s see. Somali fraud. ICE attackers asking to be killed. George Floyd a martyr. The gov. being an embarrassment and almost a heartbeat away from the Oval office. At some point people come to their senses.

[ridesthemiles]

MAKES YOU WONDER WHEN FLANAGAN’S ANCESTORS CAME TO THE USA & HOW THEY GOT STARTED HERE.

[nd76]

Peggy Flanagan is both personally repulsive and bat guano crazy. Michele Tafoya is attractive, has an excellent speaking voice and is a plausible alternative to Flanagan who might attract enough Dem voters to win.

[lee martell]

That is the exact opposite of what I would expect to happen in that state. Let’s not fool ourselves with wishful thinking.

[Dan Zachary]

Peggy Flanagan is both personally repulsive and bat guano crazy.

[Dan in Wichita]

Flanagan is a terrible candidate, while Tafoya is very good. There is a distinct possibility of an R upset win in Minnesota this year, and for that reason I am sending Tafoya $50.00. Wish it was $500, but hey, I’ll do what I can.

[central_va]

Dear Free Traitors:

Benefits of Tariffs

Tariffs, which are taxes imposed on imported goods, can have several advantages for a country’s economy. Here are the primary benefits:

Protection of Domestic Industries

Encourages Local Purchasing: By making imported goods more expensive, tariffs incentivize consumers to buy domestically produced products.
Job Retention and Creation: This shift in consumer behavior can help retain existing jobs and potentially create new ones in local industries.

Revenue Generation

Government Funding: Tariffs provide a source of revenue for the government, which can be allocated to public services such as infrastructure, education, and healthcare.
Reduced Dependence on Other Taxes: This revenue stream can lessen the need for other forms of taxation, benefiting the overall economy

Addressing Trade Imbalances

Encourages Domestic Production: Tariffs can help reduce reliance on foreign products by promoting local manufacturing, which can stabilize the economy.

Strengthens Economic Self-Sufficiency: By boosting local industries, tariffs can enhance a country’s economic independence

[Sawdring]

Never

[packrat35]

MN has been blue forever. Even Reagan couldn’t win Minnesota, and he won the other 49 states. As far as immigration, most Americans voted to kick them out and still support it.

[SharpRightTurn]

I’m hopeful Tafoya can pull it out, but it IS Minnesota after all. So I’ll believe it when all the late night vote counts are in.

[chopperk]

First all illegals and Somalis must be deported.

[DeplorableTrumpSupporter]

But Texas might flip blue... Texas voting to the LEFT of Minnesota is not going to happen...

[flamberge]

At some point people come to their senses.

I do not share your optimistic view.

I tend more to the belief that "People keep doing what they are doing until they cannot do it anymore."

Democrats gonna vote Democrat. "Independents" are gonna vote Democrat. Because Republicans are icky.

If that is not enough, then the Democrat Fraud Machine will make up the difference. The "margin-of-cheat" is flexible, according to circumstances. But ten percent fraudulent votes turned out for the preferred candidate of the party is very reachable in a Statewide election.

Beyond that, the "election" begins to lose credibility. That gets expensive fast. Straightforward use of compliant police forces against political opponents becomes necessary to retain power.

Higher Republican turnout makes things a bit harder for the Democrats to win "elections". But in a "blue" state, the only situation that Republicans can win is when the Democrats weaken themselves with internecine conflicts and Leftist purity spirals.

"Moar voting" isn't going to fix this. Stupid people vote. And they outnumber the rest of us.

[The Great RJ]

I live in Minnesota and people are really ticked off
The billions of dollars in fraud flowing into fake Somali businesses has people upset but now the roving Somali gangs are terrorizing the suburbs with shootings even causing the evacuation of a high school homecoming football game has really generated anger. The state’s Democrat leaders have been complicit in the fraud, pander to the Somalis for their votes and accuse anyone who legitimately raises the issue of the Somali problem as being racist. If Minnesota votes rrd for the first time in decades it will be the Somali problem as the defining issue

[SharpRightTurn]

“Reagan couldn’t win Minnesota, and he won the other 49 states”

I’ll have you know I have it on good authority (Barak Hussein OBummer) that there are 58 states.