Posted on 05/27/2026 4:00:38 PM PDT by CFW
Gloom and doom is everywhere these days—-except in the economic data or in business planning meetings.
Surveys of consumers suggest that these are the worst of times. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index keeps hitting all-time lows. The Economist/YouGov poll shows 63 percent of Americans say the economy is getting worse, including a third of Trump voters. Eighty-four percent of Democrats say we are either already in a recession or likely to be in one in the next 12 months.
Businesses aren’t seeing it. The Atlanta-Fed released its latest Survey of Business Uncertainty on Tuesday, and the results are worth reading carefully — especially by anyone who has spent the past several months waiting for the American economy to crack under the weight of war, energy costs, and uncertainty. It has not cracked. If anything, the businesses that actually run the economy appear to be betting on something closer to expansion.
The survey’s smoothed index showed firms expecting sales revenue to grow 5.1 percent over the next 12 months in May. That number deserves some historical context. Before COVID, when the economy was humming along through what now looks like a golden era of low inflation and steady growth, the survey averaged 4.5 percent.
[snip]
The labor market is operating under a constraint that most standard economic indicators were not designed to measure. Dallas Fed economists estimated earlier this year that break-even employment growth — the monthly job gains required to hold the unemployment rate steady — had fallen from roughly 250,000 per month in 2023 to near zero by late 2025. The primary driver was the sharp reduction in labor-force growth that followed the tightening of immigration enforcement. When the inflow of new workers slows dramatically, the economy needs far fewer new hires just to stay even.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
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Cue the gas price idiots.
The old saying: “Put your money where your mouth is.”
Uncertainty, not any shortage, is causing the majority of the current increase in oil prices. I expect to see gasoline back down around $3 (or less) within the next few weeks.
I’m happy to pay a little more for a bit if it means removing the 47 year-old threat from Iran and nuclear weapons.
> firms expecting sales revenue to grow 5.1 percent over the next 12 months in May <
That’s good news. But I gotta wonder how honest those firms are. Would a spokesman for a firm ever say, “We expect our sales to decline significantly.”
Or am I being too suspicious?
Consumers: Too pessimistic?
Businesses: Too optimistic?
IBMTM
>> Would a spokesman for a firm ever say, “We expect our sales to decline significantly.” <<
Yes. If you consistently underperform projections, your shareholders will dump you and maybe even sue you. And if it comes out that you deliberately lied in your forecasts, you could even face prison time. That said, IIRC, there is some tendency to fail to predict a slowdown.
But so far it does not.
Me Too.....
Me Too.....
I just paid $2.87.
I have fuel rewards.
FYI The above link gives an up to date price for WTI & Brent crude oil.
I check it throughout the day. Best to be in the know than BOT Disinformation.👍
I just paid $2.87.
I have fuel rewards.
I fill up once a month using my Kroger points and get between .70 and $1.00 off per gal on 35 gallons.
I don’t drive as much since I retired, so gas is not a big concern for me. But, I worry about those that have a long commute or have to drive for their job. Hopefully we will see those fuel costs start to drop by the first of next week.
I read once that inflation cuts your money in half every 10 years.
Based on that, starting about 50 years ago, gas should be $32 a gallon.
Rent should be $6400 for an average apartment.
An average pickup truck should be $80,000.
Blue collar income should be 224,000 a year.
The pickup turned out about right.
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