The Global Ripples from the Iran War

American Greatness ^ | 5 May, 2026 | Victor Davis Hanson

[MtnClimber]

The Iran war didn’t just break Tehran—it shattered old alliances, exposed Europe’s weakness, checked China and Russia, and accelerated an American-led geopolitical realignment.

No one ever quite knows the nature of the aftermath of any war in the Middle East.

The current effort to disarm and neuter the Iranian theocracy is no exception.

But contrary to European and American left-wing consensus, the ripples of the Iran war are already remaking the postwar world as we knew it—and in ways that are all bad.

For more than half a century, OPEC has terrorized the industrial world with threats of oil shortages and sky-high prices, with members often agreeing to cut back to 70–80 percent of their capacities.

But recently, the hard-pressed United Arab Emirates announced—at a time of high oil prices—that it was leaving the cartel and freelancing. The UAE will likely increase its production by 1–2 million barrels per day. Once such a key member departs, it is probable that other oil-exporting nations will defect to take advantage of the current spike in oil prices to avoid missing out on profits as others get richer.

OPEC is no longer the powerhouse monopoly of the 1970s. It now accounts for barely half of the world’s exported oil. Meanwhile, the US, the largest producer of oil and gas in history, is pushing hard to increase daily production to meet increased demand for American oil. A rebooted Venezuela has already reached a seven-year high in its renewed output and promises even faster escalation in oil exports.

Russia’s still-sanctioned oil has suddenly started to appear on the world market, as the Kremlin has upped exports by a quarter-million barrels per day.

Add it all up, and Iran’s 1.5–2 million barrels may not be all that missed, as the world price may fall by summer

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Iran
KEYWORDS: chicoms; china; europe; iran; terrorism; vdh

[MtnClimber]

VDH ping

[Sam Gamgee]

What I thought was most remarkable is the US managed to blunt all the Russian and Chinese defense systems that were sold to Iran. I think that is a big story.