[lurk]

Analysts have been forecasting dire things about China’s economy for years. Ghost cities. No energy resources. Debt. Demographic death spiral.

China keeps expanding worldwide. They’re not getting the bad news memo.

[Fai Mao]

My Chinese wife keeps up with real estate in the Greater Bay area around Hong Kong. Housing prices for existing units have crashed by 40 to 60% in some cities and at least 20% everywhere. Property prices have even begun to stagnate or drop in HK though not as much

We know Chinese/HK expats in the UK and US who are looking to go back to China because the cost of living is less and the society is less weird. They also feel freer in China than they do in the US or UK.

I think China is heading for a major recession and financial reset in the property market due to over supply, a falling population. I don’t know how this will affect the rest of the Chinese economy or confidence in the central government.

[Rockingham]

It may be counterintuitive, but both lines of analysis can be true. China's domestic circumstances are under great stress and even in decline. Meanwhile, the CCP is using their control of China's resources, industrial strength, and financial reserves to expand China's global influence.

Nevertheless, China's structural weaknesses place limits on the country. Their military, for example, is riddled with corruption and is unready for a serious fight. China's PLAN (their Navy) is unable to undertake extended deep water operations on a wide scale due to weaknesses in equipment, doctrine, and training.

In China's long history, attention getting imperial accomplishments often came at the cost of durable internal development. It may well be that the pattern is repeating itself.