Posted on 10/27/2025 12:27:27 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Virginia’s statewide off-year elections this November were predicted by most “experts” to be an easy win for the Democrats. Usually, the party that wins the White House struggles in the Old Dominion during the following year. Yet the most reputable polls show a much tighter race than expected. Even more surprising, after five weeks of early voting the heavily Republican areas of the Commonwealth have consistently had stronger turnout than have the state’s Democrat strongholds – perhaps setting the stage for a historic upset.
The top of the ticket this year features a showdown between incumbent Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger, who previously represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, was viewed going into the race as a safe bet to reclaim the governor’s mansion following Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory four years ago.
But Spanberger’s campaign strategy relies heavily on her having a substantial early vote lead in order to offset the Republican turnout advantage that is expected on Election Day. So far, that has not happened. If current trends hold and the Republican early vote tally remains higher or even equal to that of the Democrats until November 4, Earle-Sears will likely become the first Black woman in history to be elected governor of a state.
In order to win any election, Democrats rely heavily on early voting—particularly by mail—far more than Republicans. They need to “bank” the ballots of their loyal supporters before Election Day, when GOP voters invariably turn out in significantly higher numbers. If the anemic turnout of Virginia Democrats continues until November 1, the last day of early voting, Spanberger may not be able to make up the difference on November 4.
Early voting began on September 19 and, according to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), turnout is far...
(Excerpt) Read more at amac.us ...
Does not sound like a “disaster’ to me.
Maybe Democrats decided that since they have always been lazy bums They might as well extend being lazy to mail in voting.
Blue state, Sears would need the stars to line up to win.
They need a large enough pile of early votes that they can’t finish “counting” until after Election Day. It is hard to explain a 2am surge in rat votes on the 5th if you ran out of mail-ins on the 2nd.
RE: Blue state, Sears would need the stars to line up to win.
Did you mean to refer to the origin of “disaster”?
“The word “disaster” originates from the Italian word disastro, which means “ill-starred”. It combines the prefix dis- (”bad” or “ill”) and the word astro (”star”), stemming from the Latin astrum and Greek astron. Historically, it was rooted in the belief that the positions of stars and planets could cause calamities, and the term evolved to describe any great misfortune or calamity.”
It would certainly be a calamity for the Dem to lose an election they are way up in the polls in a Blue state.
The steal tricks have everyone afraid of lawfare.
Me either.
True. Sadly, the Left will win with NYC, New Jersey and Virginia victory speeches to gushing and cheering crowds.
Maybe the AG will lose. Maybe.
Optics will look like it’s good to break the law, oppose law enforcement agents and plot violence against Trump and us.
A bad thing but it’s practically inevitable.
My observations are, of course, only anecdotal, but I voted early in VA at one of the bluest precincts, and the table giving out Democratic sample ballots was doing no business at all, while the Republican table was as busy as could be.
And the media will act like these were unexpected and suggest a turning point in the electorate away from Trump.
How Virginia elections work:
1) Rural Virginians vote and have their ballot-counted efficiently, and reported on time. They go t bed on election night with Republican candidates significantly ahead.
2) In the densely populated northern Virginia areas dominated by government employees and other dependent persons, election managers receive the results from Step 1, then keep collecting/counting votes until the Dems win.
If Gov. Youngkin has somehow ended this game, like DeSantis did in FL, I’ll be shocked.
“True. Sadly, the Left will win with NYC, New Jersey and Virginia victory speeches to gushing and cheering crowds.
Maybe the AG will lose. Maybe.”
Spot on, probably. Some polls have the VA Lt. Governor race as being close, but those are a minority.
Not being hyped here yet, oddly, is some outlier poll from Jersey which shows basically a TIE between Jack Chat and the Naval Academy Cheater. Stranger things have happened, but it’s still going to take a minor miracle for the Republican to win Jersey and a major miracle to win Virginia.
https://coefficient.org/new-jersey-statewide-2025-general-election/
I believe Fairfax County is considered a “holdback” county, where they hold back their vote counts until other precincts have reported, and they know how many votes they need to win.
How Virginia elections work:
1) Rural Virginians vote and have their ballot-counted efficiently, and reported on time. They go t bed on election night with Republican candidates significantly ahead.
2) In the densely populated northern Virginia areas dominated by government employees and other dependent persons, election managers receive the results from Step 1, then keep collecting/counting votes until the Dems win.
If Gov. Youngkin has somehow ended this game, like DeSantis did in FL, I’ll be shocked.
Spanberger is a lousy candidate. It appears that the Democrats may not be that motivated to vote for her.
Look at what happened in 2024.
Kamala Harris was a disaster. So Donald Trump put in the work and he was able to win decisively.
I believe Trump won, not because of astrology, but because millions of us prayed for him to prevail, and followed up by showing up to vote.
I am limited to praying for Sears since I am no longer a Virginian. I can't force anybody else to do so likewise, but maybe consider the former if you aren't, and the latter if you are.
In larger numbers than the Dem, that's how we win. In VA, the numbers are against Sears.
I’ve been praying since the campaigning started.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.