Posted on 10/12/2025 1:07:47 PM PDT by delta7
Chart
The silver market just witnessed a seismic event: On the evening of October 9, Bruce Ikemizu, Chief Director of the Japan Bullion Market Association (JBMA), confirmed that the 1-month implied lease rate for physical silver in London erupted to a jaw-dropping 39.2%. This extraordinary spike, captured in recent market data, signals acute physical supply distress—metal in the vaults is running out, and lenders are demanding a premium for any silver that remains.
Last Call for Physical: Delivery Demands Trigger Metal Crunch
Gone are the days when buyers were content to roll over paper contracts. Now, contract holders are standing up and demanding physical delivery, triggering a clash between fantasy and reality in the world’s premier bullion hub. Heavy selling of paper silver—promissory notes promising immediate metal on demand—has run headlong into a global shortage, as participants scramble to secure whatever metal remains in the system.
“Short Squeeze” Sirens: Paper Promises Meet the Real World
The implications for short sellers are catastrophic. Those who bet on falling silver prices, selling ounces they never owned, are suddenly being asked, “Where’s the metal?” With inventories in London and on COMEX reaching critical lows, the era of unlimited paper selling is ending in a tidal wave of buy-ins, margin calls, and forced physical delivery.
Nowhere Left to Hide: Losses Mount for Shorts
As spot prices spike and lease rates soar, the traditional game of “kick the can” with paper contracts has become a minefield. The costs for borrowing metal continue climbing, while industrial users, mints, and investors fight for every available ounce. Each uptick in the lease rate is a warning siren for those still holding naked short positions: either find the silver—or pay the price.
Tidal Shift: A Squeeze for the Ages?
With London at the epicenter, the flow of metal from COMEX to LBMA is under close scrutiny. Industry insiders are now openly speculating about the possibility of defaults, as those who can’t come up with physical metal scramble for solutions. Commentary from analysts—including on platforms like YouTube—suggests this could be a foundational moment for the market, marking the collapse of “just-in-time” silver supply and a historic reckoning for short sellers everywhere.
IBTG
IBTS
😁😏😆
Shorts are gonna take it in the shorts!
Another goodie....looks like some of the major banks are losing billions...Gold’s little brother, Silver, takes them down? No tears except for the consequences. Question is, will they be bailed out like the last crisis ( $800 billion in TARP)?
https://substack.com/home/post/p-175813814
Wall Street’s Silver Machine DESTROYED: Backwardation Chaos, Lease Rates Hit 200%, Physical Supply Vanishes
Backed Into a Corner: London and COMEX Can’t Deliver, ETFs Freeze—Market Backwardation the Final Nail
The world is witnessing an unprecedented and historic silver squeeze, the likes of which have never been recorded in modern financial history. Spot silver exploded past $51 per ounce, sending shockwaves across global markets and shattering previous records.
But this price action barely scratches the surface of the chaos now engulfing the precious metals sector: overnight in London, one-month silver lease rates—normally a sleepy corner of the market—spiked to levels as high as 200%. This is not a typographical error or market rumor. For several hours, anyone desperate enough to borrow physical silver faced triple-digit annualized rates, a signal that the physical metal itself is vanishing from accessible vaults and banks are waking up to a full-fledged shortage.
Vaults Drained and Panic Sets In
Major bullion banks, including JPMorgan, HSBC, and Bank of America, are now openly refusing to roll over maturing silver leases, prompting a frantic scramble by both manufacturers and other banks to secure any remaining metal—at almost any price.......
Sure, but what does that mean for those of us who have been “responsible”?
You know, kept our credit scores at 850, remained debt free, paid everything in cash, invested for our supposed future?
Sounds like pain is coming to us all 👎
I have a good amount of silver stacked up but it's 100% physical with most of it in a depository.
Without a name with which one may check / verify / correspond, this is the stuff of alarmism. Provided by Mister Anonymous. And the graphic is hosted within the Substack account, and does not jive with others. The closest one comes is a redddit thread, but the graphics are not identical.
From 5 June, Mister Anonymous wrote, "This is your Warning Shot. Withdraw your Funds from the Banks Now. Here's Why This is An Emergency"
Caution. Trust but verify. Trust but ALWAYS verify.
It’s the sellers of paper silver that are taking it up the rear end. They sold the paper on the guarantee it could be redeemed at any time. They bet they could always buy the physical to fill the redemption. In the past they have offered the paper holders cash incentives to roll over their contracts. If that really isn’t working now, big time trouble.
I’m not certain on this, but I think that if they can’t supply the bullion they have to pay the paper holder current market price of the silver. That’s a shot in the shorts.
They’ve been manipulating the price of silver bullion by selling loads of paper for decades. They richly deserve all the pain they get. Will this be the big one that crushes the paper pushers and manipulators? Maybe, maybe not. The money printers at the central banks have a lot of incentive to find a way to keep supporting the artificial price and protect their fake money.
Escape From London?
Meh, doesn’t have that ‘ring’ to it.
Are you sure?
Has that physical silver in a depository maybe been sold four or five times?
Can you call them in the morning and demand delivery?
Not picking on you, it's just that my history with silver goes back to the Hunt brothers trying to corner the market in the 80's....(the last time we had $50 silver...)
Thank you for that very lucid explanation!
And no, I can’t really remember much of the 60’s, so I guess I wasn’t there! ;-)
Who, exactly, is silver academy? And how do they earn their money?
That is as I understand it. Probably a gross over simplification .
I had friend in the gold and silver business, we went to HS together in the 60s. He passed away a couple of years ago sorry to say. VERY sharp mind and a well read person. We used to chat about what would happen when Comex couldn’t come up with the silver to fulfill the paper contracts. I would love to be able to ask him now how he would see the current situation.
I have some silver stacked as well.
But I want to stack more.
A lot more.
In 8 minutes we will know how the silver markets open in Asia.
Many if not most of the paper metals investments require that the investor have a considerable amount in the investment before they can request physical metals delivery. Considerable as in perhaps $100,000.00 Most retail investors do not have that much in any metals account. I looked this up with respect to gold paper and I had no problem confirming this. And if you think about it, it makes sense, retail investors don’t want to commit thousands of dollars at a time for an ounce of gold, they don’t want to be bothered storing it and most of all, they don’t want to suffer ridicule from their friends who think paper is good, physical is terrible. Of course I disagree it’s a fun place to put some of your cash. Slow but steady...
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